aldie 22 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 That storm in the NE needs to finish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Navgem and icon, which both did not have a storm at 18z, now have solutions similar to euro and gfs. I know they are the b-team but it’s encouraging nonetheless. I like where we stand. 6z nam was encouraging also. Now at least we can root for the northern trend instead of worrying about even further suppression. edit: looks like 6z gefs introduced 4 really suppressed solutions that weren’t there at 0z or 18z lol. Guess we’re not totally out of the woods with the suppressed idea. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 hour ago, ers-wxman1 said: 06z GFS shifted further south from the 00z run. Heaviest QPF stays south and the low track not as favorable for us. Not much snow for the D.C. metro. I'm ok if the consensus at 4 days out is just south of us. These bleed north some 90% of the time. Usually because the ccb ends up more expansive and the track nudges north just a bit at the end. But the correction isn't nearly as much as it once was. We don't want this to become a NC target. But if it's right there where we can reach out and touch it to the south I feel good. Today is big imo. If it stays close with a track near the outer banks I feel pretty good. Don't want to see any further suppression though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 38 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Stick with the GEFS which like last storm has been rather consistent. Still alot of variability with the ops. 0z GEFS continued to tick qpf farther N. North, not suppression, is more of the overall vibe/trends I am getting with this one. Keys to track and what to watch are 50/50 location, +PNA amplification trends, weakening -NAO timing. Remember, this was progged as an Archambault event lead up as the nao flips neg to pos. That in itself argues more room N than a suppressed slider. Mid March climatology would generally agree. Still a ton of uncertainty at this range. Except 6z gefs just pulled the rug. The gefs had been pretty steady as you said but 6z did jump on a more suppressive idea and more then just slightly imo. Way too many members that target way too far south for me to be comfortable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Overnight was a loss imo. EPS shifted south and targets the VA NC border with best qpf. 6z gefs is only a little north of that but took a huge step back from recent runs. The b team is coming on board but are also targeting south of us. I said I didn't want to see the consensus be the VA NC border and it's only slightly north. It's close enough that we're not done but my confidence remains low. If anything slightly lower now after overnight runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 GEFS looks like crap. Only 3 “good” solutions, rest fringed or gone entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Overnight was a loss imo. EPS shifted south and targets the VA NC border with best qpf. 6z gefs is only a little north of that but took a huge step back from recent runs. The b team is coming on board but are also targeting south of us. I said I didn't want to see the consensus be the VA NC border and it's only slightly north. It's close enough that we're not done but my confidence remains low. If anything slightly lower now after overnight runs. the american modeling smh. Lets see what 12z says...data from west coast might be in sparse area lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Except 6z gefs just pulled the rug. The gefs had been pretty steady as you said but 6z did jump on a more suppressive idea and more then just slightly imo. Way too many members that target way too far south for me to be comfortable Yep, saw that. Big hiccup or trend bucked? We see in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Looking over the 06Z and I don't really think there is a need to panic. The changes seen were not drastic in the important features and in fact were very slight leading leading into the storm vs. the 00z. If nothing else it just goes to show that subtle differences can mean the world of difference with this storm and how it evolves. Below we have the latest run at 84 hours and below that the 90 hr 00Z for comparison. The key thing I want to point out is the trough we have dropping down into the Midwest. Now what we want to see with that feature is to have that trough more to a neutral look vs. a moderate positive we now see. Now part of what is influencing this tilt is the speed of the energy dropping down in the NS. But two other factors are in play here as well. And that is the ridging we see both in the west and the ridging in front of the system. Stronger ridging in the west will tend to increase positive tilt whereas stronger ridging in front will tend to pull that more to a neutral look. What we have seen vs. the 00z (map below this one) is that the ridging in the west is coming in slightly stronger and the ridging in front a little weaker. Pretty much a double whammy so we are seeing a more positive tilt. Now I really haven't looked into what is influencing the strength of the western ridging and probably won't bother because the more important feature in my mind in the current setup is the ridging in front. This ridging will be dependent on both the strength of our storm initially as well as the positioning of our 50/50. In our latest run we see the 50/50 positioned closer to our developing storm which tends to hinder the developing ridging in front and we also see a slightly weaker low pressure in the south. Now compare that to what the 00z shows and you have an idea why we are seeing a more positive tilt in the trough. Now why the tilt of the trough is important comes in its ability to influence and grab our surface low. The more neutral the look we have the better. This is important on the evolution of both the low and at 500's because they tend to play off of each other. In the latest run we see the trough slightly slower and more positively tilted thus it is not having enough influence on the front running low. So what we are seeing is the beginnings of a transfer off the coast to a secondary a lot earlier in the process. This is the last thing we want to see because it means the storm is out running the upper level support. But at 00z we see the trough keep its influence over the surface low and we see no ongoing transfer. Now lets jump ahead 6 hours and see what these slight differences resulted in. Notice that on the 06Z we now see the primary located well out to sea with upper level support no where to be found. This will not get it done for the DC/Balt corridor. In fact this whole evolution might be an issue with central and eastern VA as they would be dealing with transfer issues we encounter up here all the time not to mention that temps might be a very real issue as well. Western and northern VA could potentially do well though. Now compare to what we see on the 00z. We now see a closed low at 500's just NW of our surface low. So the 500's were able to semi capture the low for a time before we see what looks to be the beginnings of a transfer just off of OBX which will jump the low very slightly ahead of the support delaying a true capture a touch longer. So though the surface reflection shows fairly significant differences, upstairs where it really matters showed very little changes leading into the storm. Changes that can very well be picked right one back up for the positive on the next run. Now one thing I want to mention. The look on both the 00z and the 06z? Give me that look leading into the storm any day of the week. That has big storm written all over it for the DC/Balt region. Not saying it will happen here but it is sure close. And barring any major changes with the setup I wouldn't go writing this storm off at any point leading into it. The powder keg is set, it is just a matter of lighting the fuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Looking over the 06Z and I don't really think there is a need to panic. All I needed to read. As usual, great post and thoughts. Appreciate them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Except 6z gefs just pulled the rug. The gefs had been pretty steady as you said but 6z did jump on a more suppressive idea and more then just slightly imo. Way too many members that target way too far south for me to be comfortable Yep, saw that. Big hiccup or trend bucked? We see in a few hours. Hadn't even looked at them yet. But... Follow the leader maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Except 6z gefs just pulled the rug. The gefs had been pretty steady as you said but 6z did jump on a more suppressive idea and more then just slightly imo. Way too many members that target way too far south for me to be comfortable Yep, saw that. Big hiccup or trend bucked? We see in a few hours. I never saw a north trend. I saw the gfs and gefs bouncing around targeting slightly south of D.C. overall for days. And I've seen everything else bouncing around targeting south of that. I've seen run to run moves within those umbrellas but no trend. If anything I've seen a slow bleed south on the gfs to meet the euro. The geps was actually north fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Except 6z gefs just pulled the rug. The gefs had been pretty steady as you said but 6z did jump on a more suppressive idea and more then just slightly imo. Way too many members that target way too far south for me to be comfortable Yep, saw that. Big hiccup or trend bucked? We see in a few hours. 6z. Toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 So, imo I think it's okay even if the GFS has trended south putting heaviest qpf through south central VA. GEFS still get's the .5 line through the cities. If we can hold that and slowly trend north over the next 84hrs until gametime we will be fine. I kind of doubt a further trend south at this point given all the other model's have trended north. Today is key. I'm expecting things to hold or maybe move a little more south on the GFS before trending ever so slowly north until gametime. Still have an 84hr lead which is a long time. The big thing for me is that the b-team finally has a storm thats similar in it's evolution to the GFS. Also, remember the 0z GEFS had a number of inland runners and there was a concern about a lot of rain. We're still moving around a good bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 I like seeing a decent cluster of lows on the GEFS at 78 north of the mean in northern arkansas/western TN. 6z op held back some energy through MO that allowed H5 to get a little south before turning the corner. Clean that up and it would have been a better result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/971726044297420800 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Well, the good news is NAM will be in range in just a few hours for the first DC snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/971726044297420800 But even if that "kicker" doesn't turn it up the coast, you still have the chance of just having a stronger southern stream storm that bullies it's way north just enough to snow in the Mid-Atantic. Definitely rooting for the "kicker" but I think we still have a chance even we miss the "kick". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 A quick summary of the overnight runs. And the Euro: Fwiw, here are a few of my thoughts: 1) Clearly central VA is favored. I know that's disappointing for people near the cities compared to some of the better GFS runs (and a couple of Euro / Ukie runs), but those good runs have consistently been on the northern end of guidance. It's not common for the models to converge to the outliers. 2) We're still 4 days out. That max stripe will probably shift, for better or for worse. I'm well north of the max stripe, but the EPS and GEPS still give me a good amount of snow, so a lot of us are still in the game. 3) If I do get snow, most likely I'll be on the northern fringe. I'm OK with that, especially considering the type of winter folks SW of DC have had. The below pic is the seasonal snowfall total from before the most recent storm hit NE MD. The upcoming storm could fill in that snow hole nicely. This member of the GEPS would do the trick. That wouldn't be a bad outcome at all, and we're not too far from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 @showmethesnow I agree with your post about the general setup but with one exception... I don't like that stuff I circled in red Everything else is fine. The 50/50 is good and its moving out/relaxing as the storm approaches...perfect timing. The ridge out west is plenty far enough west to allow this to bomb up the coast. Everything is there... and I have to thank Ian last night for helping me clarify what it was about the flow that I juts wasn't liking. A few days ago just looking at the h5 progression I "SAW" how major amplification far enough north for us was favored. Then the last day or so when I was looking at the h5 progression and looping things it just didn't look right. I could see how the whole thing sliding out under us was possible when I was just looking and getting a feel for how the flow of the waves felt. I know that isn't uber scientific but sometimes I just like to loop things and look at it and let it pop out where things should go. That crap diving in right on top of us is the problem IMO. Its pressing down on the whole thing as its trying to amplify. If this fails that is going to be the biggest culprit IMO. Remove that or dive it in slower, or further west...and there is room for that whole thing to come north. But if that is pressing down on it, its going to slide east under it then phase and bomb up off New England. But thats one thing...it could easily trend slower, or west and then its not a problem. But I don't like it there one bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 So it's not a killer for sure, but if the storm dies it's what you suspect would *be* the killer. Is it too early to start watching the NAM for specifically that feature? How desperate do I have to be to do that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Whatever happens, I am not getting seduced by the temptress known as the NAM ever again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, anotherman said: Whatever happens, I am not getting seduced by the temptress known as the NAM ever again. Until she shows you 18" IYBY. Then your all in. Your weak/desperate just like the rest of us weenies........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @showmethesnow I agree with your post about the general setup but with one exception... I don't like that stuff I circled in red Everything else is fine. The 50/50 is good and its moving out/relaxing as the storm approaches...perfect timing. The ridge out west is plenty far enough west to allow this to bomb up the coast. Everything is there... and I have to thank Ian last night for helping me clarify what it was about the flow that I juts wasn't liking. A few days ago just looking at the h5 progression I "SAW" how major amplification far enough north for us was favored. Then the last day or so when I was looking at the h5 progression and looping things it just didn't look right. I could see how the whole thing sliding out under us was possible when I was just looking and getting a feel for how the flow of the waves felt. I know that isn't uber scientific but sometimes I just like to loop things and look at it and let it pop out where things should go. That crap diving in right on top of us is the problem IMO. Its pressing down on the whole thing as its trying to amplify. If this fails that is going to be the biggest culprit IMO. Remove that or dive it in slower, or further west...and there is room for that whole thing to come north. But if that is pressing down on it, its going to slide east under it then phase and bomb up off New England. But thats one thing...it could easily trend slower, or west and then its not a problem. But I don't like it there one bit. Totally agree with this. My tracking time has been very limited lately, but I looked at things this morning and that piece of energy diving in from north of the GLs looks like it could be a culprit for a fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: This is a fringer, let's face it. Story of this winter. you will need to provide a lot more to this post to make such a definitive call four days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Totally agree with this. My tracking time has been very limited lately, but I looked at things this morning and that piece of energy diving in from north of the GLs looks like it could be a culprit for a fail. In using the trend loops at 500, it seems that we want that feature north of the lakes to speed up? Edit: Since i am having trouble inbedding the look. It looks like the best runs (GFS) are when that feature is quicker and dives west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 I didnt see anyone mention this mornings RGEM run. But it looks much better than the NAM as far as LP position goes. I am not trying to extrapolate. But at 12Z Saturday it has a stronger vort in a better position for us IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 12 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Until she shows you 18" IYBY. Then your all in. Your weak/desperate just like the rest of us weenies........... You are so right. Who am I kidding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 I know we are all at our wits end this winter with the lack of snow, but lets try to make decent, thought provoking posts. Explain your stance, why you think its going to do what it does, etc etc. We have a banter thread for people to joke and carry on in. Please and thanks! - sick and cranky "management" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Although I did lose it in the panic room 2 days ago about this threat, I kind of like where we sit at this range. The amount of adjustment we need is well within the normal error at 4 day leads. It's a lot better than being 4 days out from a miller B and hoping we can get a south shift. Anyhow, if we do end up missing south a few days after we missed north that will fit nicely with our season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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