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March 11-12 Potential Storm


stormtracker

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Hard to tell with the lower res but looks like some too far west tracks in there and a couple of those dump copious rain. Overall the run supports the op but like Ji said, a lot of spread for 5 day leads. Nobody should be confident with any specific solution yet. 

Tracking is half the fun for me so at least it’ll stay interesting the next few days.  And with that, I might as well stay up for the Euro.  

Re: the GEFS, interesting with the various solutions considering the OP and the tendency this year for the GEFS to be a “ooooh, let’s follow the OP!” Mentality.  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The U.K. Precip later will be a good test to my theory on the gfs being too compressed with qpf. It's well outside the gfs track. Similar intensity. Curious if it gets precip into D.C. Even with the further east track.  

It barely does.  DCA total QPF from 00z UKIE is about 0.2

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4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Dang it man...So one run eases our suppression concerns...and now rain has entered into the conversation? Frustration, frustration...smh

You'll get used to it. This is totally normal and common. Every once in a blue moon it comes easy from longer lead times but the other 99% of our storms keep you guessing until the bitter end. If you're looking for an easy, predictable, and rewarding hobby then my best advice is to quit now and never look back. 

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2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

So from 2"+ of precip at 12z to .2 at 00z. Pretty good consistency lol

Exactly the consistency we usually get 4 days out with every snowstorm on every model, unless we're smack dead in the bullseye like January 2016.

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2 minutes ago, Amped said:

Exactly the consistency we usually get 4 days out with every snowstorm on every model, unless we're smack dead in the bullseye like January 2016.

Lol. That's planets apart though .

Wether it's right or wrong who knows yet but the GFS has been crazy consistant. I was just looking back on TT and starting last Saturday with its 12z run it has had this storm basically Jack potting anywhere from central pa to central va . Pretty amazing actually. 

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9 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I’d be happy if the Euro takes another step towards the GFS/northern solution even if not a flush hit.  I just want to keep the trend going of its last few runs of gaining latitude.  

Let's hope we can get it where we all cash in. Those storms have been rare. Big storms aren't infrequent, but so many times there are winners and losers. This region deserves a hit from a snowstorm more than any other.

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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm encouraged that the gfs managed to pull it off despite a not so great start. First run to do that. Implies maybe we have more wiggle room then i thought. 

I had said earlier that the southern piece would have to bully it's way north...and at 0z it certainly began to do just that!!

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12 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Don’t care how loud the barking this is still far from certain. We went from a slow moving bomb to this.  And two globals not on board to boot.  

Nobody is saying anything is certain. All we can look at is trends right now. For now, we can just take the positive trends. Euro looked further north to me...perhaps tomorrow it gets a further north. GFS, same thing...actually DID hit us at 00z. So you can say that there have been some positive steps today. What happens at 06z and 12z...we shall see! Yeah it's frustrating as heck, but...we just can't know yet. A lot on the table still (obviously, lol)

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Nobody is saying anything is certain. All we can look at is trends right now. For now, we can just take the positive trends. Euro looked further north to me...perhaps tomorrow it gets a further north. GFS, same thing...actually DID hit us at 00z. So you can say that there have been some positive steps today. What happens at 06z and 12z...we shall see! Yeah it's frustrating as heck, but...we just can't know yet. A lot on the table still (obviously, lol)

LWX favors the suppressed solution.  Today is a big day.  

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North-south-north-south, just back and forth with GFS.

Stick with the GEFS which like last storm has been rather consistent. Still alot of variability with the ops. 0z GEFS continued to tick qpf farther N. North, not suppression, is more of the overall vibe/trends I am getting with this one. Keys to track and what to watch are 50/50 location, +PNA amplification trends, weakening -NAO timing. Remember, this was progged as an Archambault event lead up as the nao flips neg to pos. That in itself argues more room N than a suppressed slider. Mid March climatology would generally agree. Still a ton of uncertainty at this range.

 

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