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March 11-12 Potential Storm


stormtracker

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

I was just looking at that too...wish there was an in between panel

there will be shortly on weathermodels... prob in like 20 mins.  I am going to assume 108 and 114 would be good for our region IMO trying to extrap a track from where 96 is to 120.

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3 minutes ago, Chase said:

Where’s our cold air coming from?

There's a pretty good funnel going on between the departing low in the atlantic and weak high pressure over the lakes. Pretty consistent n-nw flow at the surface and mid levels leading in. Insitu cad seems pretty stubborn as warm air advection kicks in with the precip. Once the low gets east of us then solid midlevel cold gets wrapped in. The only thing that could cause problems is if the low tucks or simply tracks too close. 

I'm not worried about temps too much but there are ways to get rained on. Especially se of the cities. 

gfs_mslpa_us_14.png

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13 minutes ago, yoda said:

there will be shortly on weathermodels... prob in like 20 mins.  I am going to assume 108 and 114 would be good for our region IMO trying to extrap a track from where 96 is to 120.

I hope I'm wrong but I would think the ukie misses us. Looks like it swings off of the Georgia coast and then hooks around and hits new england

 

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21 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I hear what you're saying and I like it...but the thing is, other models besides the GFS have that sharp northern cutoff

Other models had a less expansive qpf because they were weaker progressive systems. A miller a gulf lowtracking inside hatteras at 989 mb isn't gonna have trouble getting the heavy qpf into our area. Look at 12z. The only other model that had the same location and intensity as the gfs, the U.K., had heavy precip all the way up into northern PA. The gfs was way more compressed with the cutoff in southern PA. And the gfs was slightly deeper and inside the U.K. Track. 

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I bet there's a lot of hits on the individual members
 Look how many members are West of the mean. The mean is skewed by a few Ip's way out in the Atlantic
 
Yep...one in bermuda skews mean but alot more spread than i expect now
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2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I bet there's a lot of hits on the individual members

 Look how many members are West of the mean. The mean is skewed by a few Ip's way out in the Atlantic

 

Ok no joke seeing that cluster tucked in tight had me thinking of the line from "baby got back". "Oh baby I wanna get wit ya".  Sorry it was on earlier. I'm tired. Need sleepy. This hobby isn't good for getting 8 hours. 

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Oh, I should probably dig into the GEFS then.  Is it due to amped and/or too tucked into the coast?  

Hard to tell with the lower res but looks like some too far west tracks in there and a couple of those dump copious rain. Overall the run supports the op but like Ji said, a lot of spread for 5 day leads. Nobody should be confident with any specific solution yet. 

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