nj2va Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Going to have to wait for the in between hours... 96 UKIE is in GA... 120 is east of ACY by about 200 miles I was just looking at that too...wish there was an in between panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, nj2va said: I was just looking at that too...wish there was an in between panel there will be shortly on weathermodels... prob in like 20 mins. I am going to assume 108 and 114 would be good for our region IMO trying to extrap a track from where 96 is to 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, yoda said: there will be shortly on weathermodels... prob in like 20 mins. I am going to assume 108 and 114 would be good for our region IMO trying to extrap a track from where 96 is to 120. Precip shield would look similar to the GFS no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Cranky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 GFS gives some of us wrap around snow from the same vort when the SLP is NE of Maine 2 days later! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Chase said: Where’s our cold air coming from? There's a pretty good funnel going on between the departing low in the atlantic and weak high pressure over the lakes. Pretty consistent n-nw flow at the surface and mid levels leading in. Insitu cad seems pretty stubborn as warm air advection kicks in with the precip. Once the low gets east of us then solid midlevel cold gets wrapped in. The only thing that could cause problems is if the low tucks or simply tracks too close. I'm not worried about temps too much but there are ways to get rained on. Especially se of the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 We can def work with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 In a shocking and totally unexpected fashion....Gefs improved nicely just like the op. Eta: ninja'd. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 13 minutes ago, yoda said: there will be shortly on weathermodels... prob in like 20 mins. I am going to assume 108 and 114 would be good for our region IMO trying to extrap a track from where 96 is to 120. I hope I'm wrong but I would think the ukie misses us. Looks like it swings off of the Georgia coast and then hooks around and hits new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2018 Author Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: In a shocking and totally unexpected fashion....Gefs improved nicely just like the op. And with that, I'm calling it a night. Good end cap for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 In a shocking and totally unexpected fashion....Gefs improved nicely just like the op. Eta: ninja'd. LolLol the mean track was nearly identical as 18z but much wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: In a shocking and totally unexpected fashion....Gefs improved nicely just like the op. Eta: ninja'd. Lol But wait! There's more! Look at 120 and 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 21 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I hear what you're saying and I like it...but the thing is, other models besides the GFS have that sharp northern cutoff Other models had a less expansive qpf because they were weaker progressive systems. A miller a gulf lowtracking inside hatteras at 989 mb isn't gonna have trouble getting the heavy qpf into our area. Look at 12z. The only other model that had the same location and intensity as the gfs, the U.K., had heavy precip all the way up into northern PA. The gfs was way more compressed with the cutoff in southern PA. And the gfs was slightly deeper and inside the U.K. Track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 The gefs kinda lost consolidation from earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Hmm...surprising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 18 minutes ago, Ji said: Cranky What's that supposed to even mean? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, yoda said: But wait! There's more! Look at 120 1”+ for DC? I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, nj2va said: 1”+ for DC? I like it. There's a couple heavy rain storms in there. Not kidding either. Only about half the mean precip is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Hmm...surprising I bet there's a lot of hits on the individual members Look how many members are West of the mean. The mean is skewed by a few Ip's way out in the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 There's a couple heavy rain storms in there. Not kidding either. Only about half the mean precip is snow. Hence my this is surprising comment lol...we basically have no idea what's going to happen ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 I bet there's a lot of hits on the individual members Look how many members are West of the mean. The mean is skewed by a few Ip's way out in the Atlantic Yep...one in bermuda skews mean but alot more spread than i expect now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Ill take it. Was expecting 1012 low off Jacksonville coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I bet there's a lot of hits on the individual members Look how many members are West of the mean. The mean is skewed by a few Ip's way out in the Atlantic Ok no joke seeing that cluster tucked in tight had me thinking of the line from "baby got back". "Oh baby I wanna get wit ya". Sorry it was on earlier. I'm tired. Need sleepy. This hobby isn't good for getting 8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Oh, I should probably dig into the GEFS then. Is it due to amped and/or too tucked into the coast? Hard to tell with the lower res but looks like some too far west tracks in there and a couple of those dump copious rain. Overall the run supports the op but like Ji said, a lot of spread for 5 day leads. Nobody should be confident with any specific solution yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: There's a couple heavy rain storms in there. Not kidding either. Only about half the mean precip is snow. Dang it man...So one run eases our suppression concerns...and now rain has entered into the conversation? Frustration, frustration...smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 its hard to believe nam will actually be in "range" when i wake up tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: 6 minutes ago, yoda said: Ill take it. Was expecting 1012 low off Jacksonville coast No one wants to take this run except for the RIC area into SE VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 The U.K. Precip later will be a good test to my theory on the gfs being too compressed with qpf. It's well outside the gfs track. Similar intensity. Curious if it gets precip into D.C. Even with the further east track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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