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March 11-12 Potential Storm


stormtracker

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

The frame between 108 and 114 is really suspect.

It's strung out so it has the illusion of a teleport. Lol. I thought it was weird too but makes sense when you look at h5. With that being said, it was inches from a good hit. Just didn't consolidate. 

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I posted the same idea a day ago. Just go to the latest GFS run’s output for 12Z Monday on tropicaltidbits and use the [Prev. Run] button to toggle back through days of GFS runs.

It’s pretty instructional and grounding. The GFS has been bouncing around in a much smaller window than all the other models. 

Here’s a link to the latest run set at the 12Z Monday frame:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018030800&fh=108

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It's strung out so it has the illusion of a teleport. Lol. I thought it was weird too but makes sense when you look at h5. With that being said, it was inches from a good hit. Just didn't consolidate. 
That upper level diving from Canada at the last minute seems to be having a negative impact?
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Hey guys. Checking in I dont post over here as much as I used to. Anyway. First off for those interested (none I am sure lol) today was an event I won't forget in a long time. I had pretty much a slushy coating of snow on grass and wet pavement at around 1130. By 5pm roads were atrocious and I had 8 or 9 inches in Ne philly. Believe it or not even with all my snow chasing and wx tracking I had never experienced thundersnow. This afternoon I had 3 rumbles occumpanied by maybe the heaviest snow I had experienced. The only other storm that probably topped it was Jan 2011 in terms of rates, but those rates didnt last nearly as long. Anyway onto the real reason I meant to post.

 

I am im love with this event for you guys. From my experience models always have a terrible time with short waves originating from where this one is coming from. We have a perfectly placed 50 50 and a really sweet PNA spike. What may also benefit this event is it looks like it could potentially be a night time event which could help accumulations. I will say this though that from experience the UKIE tends to overstrengthen shortwaves thay dive down from where this one is being shown to originate from, but well know if it was lnto something here shortly.

Regardless, I am truly rooting for you guys in this one because I know from watching as an outsider that this winter has blown for your region.

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3 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Given a choice between locking in tonight’s gfs run or letting the storm evolve as usual, what do you pick?

I get 4 inches with this run.. which is like 2 in March. So let it ride.

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9 minutes ago, Ji said:
12 minutes ago, yoda said:
Why do you think its suspect?  Should be more north?

Just felt like it flew out there like a slingshot from va to new England in 6 hours

Looks like a jet streak pushes it along during that period.  250mb wind panels show it. Jet accelerates as the trough drops down then the storm slows again before phasing. 

We may have seen the furthest south solutions with the 12z euro and 18z gfs. I might jinx us but I think we just turned the corner. Hopefully our next worry isn't heavy rain. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Looks like a jet streak pushes it along during that period.  250mb wind panels show it. Jet accelerates as the trough drops down then the storm slows again before phasing. 

We may have seen the furthest south solutions with the 12z euro and 18z gfs. I might jinx us but I think we just turned the corner. Hopefully our next worry isn't heavy rain. 

Is heavy rain even in the realm of solutions at this point?

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@stormtracker @Bob Chill @Ji

This gfs run is a massive hit. It's doing its typical nonsense with the qpf in the ccb. It does this every time. It's why there is always some expansion of precip north at the end and I don't mind it being "a little south" right now. Often the track isn't different. 

Go and loop the track if the 0z gfs and compare it to the track of the 2016 blizzard. Identical. Now not all storms are as expensive. This might not be. But they are both gulf storms with similar track and intensity. Even if you shaved 50 miles off the 2016 ccb the deform would still reach well into PA on the north side. I'm fine with this exact track right now and I'm sure if it took that track we would all be good, even me up here. 

IMG_4541.JPG.80b056fa85df81d8be054b25e5318fe2.JPG

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Heavy rain hasn't even been in our conversations for the last day or two..perhaps I got lured into a false sense of cold security?...

Think about it this way... to get a good hit we need to be around 150 miles from the rain/snow line. Right now we're safe from that. But having a storm shift 150 miles north in 100 hours isn't much of a shift....

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@stormtracker @Bob Chill @Ji

This gfs run is a massive hit. It's doing its typical nonsense with the qpf in the ccb. It does this every time. It's why there is always some expansion of precip north at the end and I don't mind it being "a little south" right now. Often the track isn't different. 

Go and loop the track if the 0z gfs and compare it to the track of the 2016 blizzard. Identical. Now not all storms are as expensive. This might not be. But they are both gulf storms with similar track and intensity. Even if you shaved 50 miles off the 2016 ccb the deform would still reach well into PA on the north side. I'm fine with this exact track right now and I'm sure if it took that track we would all be good, even me up here. 

IMG_4541.JPG.80b056fa85df81d8be054b25e5318fe2.JPG

I hear what you're saying and I like it...but the thing is, other models besides the GFS have that sharp northern cutoff

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Think about it this way... to get a good hit we need to be around 150 miles from the rain/snow line. Right now we're safe from that. But having a storm shift 150 miles north in 100 hours isn't much of a shift....

Where’s our cold air coming from?

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