Interstate Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, Scraff said: Will the snow stick at night with that Morch moon angle? Always nice to get a base at night any time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: The frame between 108 and 114 is really suspect. It's strung out so it has the illusion of a teleport. Lol. I thought it was weird too but makes sense when you look at h5. With that being said, it was inches from a good hit. Just didn't consolidate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 I posted the same idea a day ago. Just go to the latest GFS run’s output for 12Z Monday on tropicaltidbits and use the [Prev. Run] button to toggle back through days of GFS runs. It’s pretty instructional and grounding. The GFS has been bouncing around in a much smaller window than all the other models. Here’s a link to the latest run set at the 12Z Monday frame: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018030800&fh=108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 70+ posts and 3 pages in 24 mins... Knew that had to be a good sign... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 on the GFS or CMC?Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Man TT has been slow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 It's strung out so it has the illusion of a teleport. Lol. I thought it was weird too but makes sense when you look at h5. With that being said, it was inches from a good hit. Just didn't consolidate. That upper level diving from Canada at the last minute seems to be having a negative impact? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, yoda said: on the GFS or CMC? Gfs I thought you were talking about the cmc. Disregard last post. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingJWx Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Man TT has been slow!!! I think Instant Weather Maps loads faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 5 minutes ago, yoda said: on the GFS or CMC? Gfs Why do you think its suspect? Should be more north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Why do you think its suspect? Should be more north?Just felt like it flew out there like a slingshot from va to new England in 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, KingJWx said: I think Instant Weather Maps loads faster Is it a free site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Hard to be mad at this look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Given a choice between locking in tonight’s gfs run or letting the storm evolve as usual, what do you pick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Hey guys. Checking in I dont post over here as much as I used to. Anyway. First off for those interested (none I am sure lol) today was an event I won't forget in a long time. I had pretty much a slushy coating of snow on grass and wet pavement at around 1130. By 5pm roads were atrocious and I had 8 or 9 inches in Ne philly. Believe it or not even with all my snow chasing and wx tracking I had never experienced thundersnow. This afternoon I had 3 rumbles occumpanied by maybe the heaviest snow I had experienced. The only other storm that probably topped it was Jan 2011 in terms of rates, but those rates didnt last nearly as long. Anyway onto the real reason I meant to post. I am im love with this event for you guys. From my experience models always have a terrible time with short waves originating from where this one is coming from. We have a perfectly placed 50 50 and a really sweet PNA spike. What may also benefit this event is it looks like it could potentially be a night time event which could help accumulations. I will say this though that from experience the UKIE tends to overstrengthen shortwaves thay dive down from where this one is being shown to originate from, but well know if it was lnto something here shortly. Regardless, I am truly rooting for you guys in this one because I know from watching as an outsider that this winter has blown for your region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Given a choice between locking in tonight’s gfs run or letting the storm evolve as usual, what do you pick? I get 4 inches with this run.. which is like 2 in March. So let it ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ji said: 12 minutes ago, yoda said: Why do you think its suspect? Should be more north? Just felt like it flew out there like a slingshot from va to new England in 6 hours Looks like a jet streak pushes it along during that period. 250mb wind panels show it. Jet accelerates as the trough drops down then the storm slows again before phasing. We may have seen the furthest south solutions with the 12z euro and 18z gfs. I might jinx us but I think we just turned the corner. Hopefully our next worry isn't heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Looks like a jet streak pushes it along during that period. 250mb wind panels show it. Jet accelerates as the trough drops down then the storm slows again before phasing. We may have seen the furthest south solutions with the 12z euro and 18z gfs. I might jinx us but I think we just turned the corner. Hopefully our next worry isn't heavy rain. Is heavy rain even in the realm of solutions at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Is heavy rain even in the realm of solutions at this point? Earlier solutions had quite a bit when the system was amped and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Bob Ryan cautions us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, PDIII said: I get 4 inches with this run.. which is like 2 in March. So let it ride. Agree. Go big or go home. This is it! Bases loaded...9th inning...Manny Morchado at the plate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Is heavy rain even in the realm of solutions at this point? During March in the mid atlantic? It's ALWAYS in the realm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: During March in the mid atlantic? It's ALWAYS in the realm. That one should have gone unanswered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: During March in the mid atlantic? It's ALWAYS in the realm. Gotcha...I guess I thought I was hearing that suppression was the bigger risk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 @stormtracker @Bob Chill @Ji This gfs run is a massive hit. It's doing its typical nonsense with the qpf in the ccb. It does this every time. It's why there is always some expansion of precip north at the end and I don't mind it being "a little south" right now. Often the track isn't different. Go and loop the track if the 0z gfs and compare it to the track of the 2016 blizzard. Identical. Now not all storms are as expensive. This might not be. But they are both gulf storms with similar track and intensity. Even if you shaved 50 miles off the 2016 ccb the deform would still reach well into PA on the north side. I'm fine with this exact track right now and I'm sure if it took that track we would all be good, even me up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: That one should have gone unanswered. Heavy rain hasn't even been in our conversations for the last day or two..perhaps I got lured into a false sense of cold security?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Going to have to wait for the in between hours... 96 UKIE is in GA... 120 is east of ACY by about 200 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Heavy rain hasn't even been in our conversations for the last day or two..perhaps I got lured into a false sense of cold security?... Think about it this way... to get a good hit we need to be around 150 miles from the rain/snow line. Right now we're safe from that. But having a storm shift 150 miles north in 100 hours isn't much of a shift.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2018 Author Share Posted March 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @stormtracker @Bob Chill @Ji This gfs run is a massive hit. It's doing its typical nonsense with the qpf in the ccb. It does this every time. It's why there is always some expansion of precip north at the end and I don't mind it being "a little south" right now. Often the track isn't different. Go and loop the track if the 0z gfs and compare it to the track of the 2016 blizzard. Identical. Now not all storms are as expensive. This might not be. But they are both gulf storms with similar track and intensity. Even if you shaved 50 miles off the 2016 ccb the deform would still reach well into PA on the north side. I'm fine with this exact track right now and I'm sure if it took that track we would all be good, even me up here. I hear what you're saying and I like it...but the thing is, other models besides the GFS have that sharp northern cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Think about it this way... to get a good hit we need to be around 150 miles from the rain/snow line. Right now we're safe from that. But having a storm shift 150 miles north in 100 hours isn't much of a shift.... Where’s our cold air coming from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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