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March 11-12 Potential Storm


stormtracker

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You know comparing 12z and 18z that wave dives in across Ontario on 18z vs Michigan at 12z. The further west dive 12z allows it to ride up the east side and phase it. The trajectory 18z presses it east until it's on the east side of the trough which 18z is ots for our purposes then captures and pulls it into New England 

This is a Nina. And ninas are filled with blocking fails just like that so obviously that's a concern. But we did also have 1996 in a Nina so it doesn't have to go that way. 

We need that wave to dive in west of us not on top of us though. I think that's a key I was missing or not giving enough importance too. I was looking at earlier parts of the puzzle but that factor could act to slingshot this out and around us if it does dive in on top of us like that. Ugh. 

Thanks you added one more thing to worry about lol. 

Wait a minute...could that happen even if we get the earlier parts of the puzzle right??

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wait a minute...could that happen even if we get the earlier parts of the puzzle right??

Yes but that is moving around each run. Buts it's a new problem. Wasn't even there 48 hours ago. I liked the whole spacing better then. Things getting a bit cramped for my liking with the waves. However if that wave dives down far enough west, say Toledo Ohio vs Lake Erie then it could capture and pull the low north. So it's a double edged sword. 

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes but that is moving around each run. Buts it's a new problem. Wasn't even there 48 hours ago. I liked the whole spacing better then. Things getting a bit cramped for my liking with the waves. However if that wave dives down far enough west, say Toledo Ohio vs Lake Erie then it could capture and pull the low north. So it's a double edged sword. 

Dang...can it get any more complicated? Lol Sweet mercy!!

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Just now, nj2va said:

At 72 hours, NAM has a 1004 SLP down near Austin, TX.  South of 18z GFS and well south of 12z GFS.  Heights a bit lower at 72, too.  Maybe I’m reading it wrong, but I’m not really a fan but its the NAM towards the end of the run so there’s that.  

Yeah, started out kinda good, but **** the bed after.  Oh well.  

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The most important initial hurdle is where and how strong the southern wave ejects. It seems to matter less with the northern stream. We've had better looking NS vorts that did nothing. And worse ones where the southern wave did the work itself. I think some are looking at the wrong thing. The gfs runs that work eject the wave into Colorado and to east from there. The fails eject into Texas which seems to cause it to miss the boat with the NS. It's too far away and they remain separate and that seems to be the issue. Once that window closes it's game over.

With both the NS and southern wave working together it amplifies and buckles the flow enough to increase heights in front. But if the southern wave misses that connection in the plains it continues east as a flat wave and the NS continues to dig south behind it which stretches the trough and flattens it making it more positive and at that point the shot at a phase is lost.

 

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8 minutes ago, LP08 said:

That low up NE of Maine is further south at 72 lowering heights

Look at the comparison above. The features north and east of us are the same. Heights are the same at that point. But the southern wave came out too far south and missed its ride with the NS vort coming down. Their out of sync and will remain separate. That means the southern wave won't be amplified enough to gain latitude and the NS will keep diving southeast vs turning east which makes the trough positive tilt and that is what layer squashes and keeps heights lower. They start out the same though at the critical frames. The first problem imo is mostly where that system ejects. It seems pretty obvious that the runs that eject north and sync up with the NS work. The runs that the wave ejects too far south to sync up fail. This wasn't even close. 

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