Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 more amped--slower moving....slower moving---more time for the 50/50 to move out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2018 Author Share Posted March 8, 2018 On 3/8/2018 at 3:53 PM, Bob Chill said: It's a wash man but not on the outside looking in yet. At least another 24 hours before we can declare it one way or the other. Expand Yeah, it's too close (and too far a lead) to give up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 On 3/8/2018 at 3:53 PM, stormtracker said: The best we can hope for now is that the models are overdoing our 50/50 Expand Does that happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 On 3/8/2018 at 3:54 PM, Kmlwx said: Wait...are you saying you're not focusing on what is arguably the most important level for tracking these things (500mb)? Expand Honestly no. I don't have the expertise to reliably comment on those things. I just know that in the past, amped and north means the run has been good. Looks like that may no longer be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 93. Light snow into NOVA and DC. We are right n the edge this run. Getting better I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 On 3/8/2018 at 3:54 PM, Ji said: more amped--slower moving....slower moving---more time for the 50/50 to move out Expand That was another thing with our good runs, right? I'm pretty sure for the 12z Wednesday run it took longer for the energy to enter the ConUS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 On 3/8/2018 at 3:49 PM, stormtracker said: The thing that we need is the thing that's killing us. Only in the mid atlantic. Expand You can die from drinking too much water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 On 3/8/2018 at 3:55 PM, T. August said: Does that happen? Expand Oh definitely but it's usually reserved for when we don't want it to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 On 3/8/2018 at 3:49 PM, 87storms said: looks like it may still be south...for now...but maybe this can take a last minute jog north like jan 2010 did if the northeast low relaxes a bit. might need a slower system for this to work out.Last minute jog? 18hr lead time yesterday storm....models widespread 12-18" snows for SE PA became isolated 12-18" totals with massive shift to NYC. Volatility in the pattern will yield huge last minute shift and we are nowhere near "last minute" with this threat yet. Just my $.02 based on recent experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 On 3/8/2018 at 3:54 PM, Ji said: more amped--slower moving....slower moving---more time for the 50/50 to move out Expand This was originally a Tuesday/Wednesday storm when it first popped up - then move forward to Sunday into Monday. The earlier time for it isn't helping with respect to getting the storm we just missed to a better blocking location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Post-transfer ends up a little south of 6z unfortunately, and the precip shield is a little more south too. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 On 3/8/2018 at 3:55 PM, T. August said: Does that happen? Expand How many Nao's in the past 5 years have been overdone on the models?? just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Climbs up the coast NE from 93 to 105. We see snow so it is a definite improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Wait, I take that back. 96h puts us solidly in moderate snow. At least we get something this run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 So if my understanding is correct, the 50/50 low screwed this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 One notable thing is the shortwave dropping into the lakes is MUCH weaker this run. Probably helps SNE more than us though. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 On 3/8/2018 at 3:57 PM, supernovasky said: Post-transfer ends up a little south of 6z unfortunately, and the precip shield is a little more south too. Ugh. Expand are we watching the same model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 On 3/8/2018 at 3:58 PM, Thanatos_I_Am said: So if my understanding is correct, the 50/50 low screwed this run? Expand yep. hangin out off the NS coast and is playing bully on the coastline. Wont let LP gain latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 There are always ways we fail. But that GFS run tells me we have a long way to go before we throw in the towel. Heck we are talking the slightest of adjustments and this could be a MECS. And the ways we fail have been well detailed by the big guns on the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Still snowing in DC, though light, at 102. Probably a 1-3" run but definitely better than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2018 Author Share Posted March 8, 2018 I can't say I'm thrilled. But I'm not bummed either. I think 12z tomorrow is the real deal. We still got time troops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 On 3/8/2018 at 3:53 PM, stormtracker said: The best we can hope for now is that the models are overdoing our 50/50 Expand Yea that is trending the wrong way...our system is speeding up and the 50/50 is slowing down...BAD combo there. UGH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Snow shuts off west to east 105 through 108. MUCH better run this time. We are literally talking 10's of miles from a great storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 On 3/8/2018 at 4:00 PM, SnowGolfBro said: There are always ways we fail. But that GFS run tells me we have a long way to go before we throw in the towel. Heck we are talking the slightest of adjustments and this could be a MECS. And the ways we fail have been well detailed by the big guns on the forum. Expand thats a very fair statement. keep clubs in closet for a couple weeks bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 On 3/8/2018 at 4:01 PM, clskinsfan said: Snow shuts off west to east 105 through 108. MUCH better run this time. We are literally talking 10's of miles from a great storm here. Expand Exactly. If we had a bulls eye over us now I would be nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 On 3/8/2018 at 4:00 PM, pasnownut said: yep. hangin out off the NS coast and is playing bully on the coastline. Wont let LP gain latitude Expand So we finally get the stronger, more amped SLP and we can’t get that to cooperate. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 And New England only gets scraped as a bonus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1" in DC. 2-3" just south. Better run in terms of snow for us but actually a worse run in terms of overall snow. It's pretty anemic on the snow map in Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Ha, lots of bi-polar statements about that run. But 1 inch in DC and a few south of DC might as well be 0 in mid March with marginal temps. I don't like that it is speeding up and the 50/50 isn't lifting north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 On 3/8/2018 at 4:01 PM, stormtracker said: I can't say I'm thrilled. But I'm not bummed either. I think 12z tomorrow is the real deal. We still got time troops. Expand agreed. couple subtle shifts in either direction yield a large difference in IMBY snow totals for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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