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March 11-12 Potential Storm


stormtracker

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  On 3/7/2018 at 7:05 PM, stormtracker said:

Could this be the one?

Summary of 12z suite

GFS - Hell yes

CMC-One foot in

UKMET-Hey GFS! Hell yes

EURO-Eh, I'll be along directly..

 

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Alright Beethoven this BETTER be the one...or we'll beat ya over the head with timpani and brass!!! (In 5th symphony rhythm at that!) Sorry, couldn't resist :P Hopefully we can kick off this thread with a great EPS run!

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The consensus i took from all of the Euro control runs was there were several that said Big Snow all the way through southern VA, Several through the center of the state, then another camp that says Northwestern VA, DC and MD are jackpot.  Not many controls showing a miss or nothing.

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  On 3/7/2018 at 7:16 PM, ryanconway63 said:

The consensus i took from all of the Euro control runs was there were several that said Big Snow all the way through southern VA, Several through the center of the state, then another camp that says Northwestern VA, DC and MD are jackpot.  Not many controls showing a miss or nothing.

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Do you mean the ensembles? There is only one control run...

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  On 3/7/2018 at 7:30 PM, Ian said:

SV doesn't have an amazing way to parse it but it's closer.. more precip for more of the area. Looks like .5"+ liquid?

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Central VA is the mean qpf jack but yea, around .4-.5 through most of our region. It's nice to see the largest cluster (not majority) showing a classic MA stripe. Similar to the GFS. There are some west tracks mixed in, misses to the south, and no storms at all in the mix but the biggest group that looks similar is right over our yards. 

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  On 3/7/2018 at 7:29 PM, Bob Chill said:

EPS has plenty of spread but a fairly sizeable cluster that would make most if not all of us pretty happy. The MSLP plots and low location plots shifted NW but still a bit on the progressive side. 

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Should learn to wait for hi rez but who can wait. I think any real trend here is more apparent earlier in the track. By the time it gets off the Carolina coast it's pretty similar. Still it's a good move.

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