Hoosier Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Appears a tornado possibly touched down in SE IN west of Cincy about an hour ago. That thing was crawling apparently (forward speed listed at 5 or 10 mph in the warning) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 8 hours ago, Hoosier said: That thing was crawling apparently (forward speed listed at 5 or 10 mph in the warning) 8 hours ago, snowlover2 said: Appears a tornado possibly touched down in SE IN west of Cincy about an hour ago. Not seeing anything on ILN or in media....any additional information on this? That line that developed back that way popped up out of nowhere on the east side of Cincy too....kinda weird, more about heavy rain but the wind started howling at one point....I looked at the radar an hour earlier and all the storms had dissipated from the evening round...then an hour later...boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 3 hours ago, NoDoppler4TnySandz said: Not seeing anything on ILN or in media....any additional information on this? That line that developed back that way popped up out of nowhere on the east side of Cincy too....kinda weird, more about heavy rain but the wind started howling at one point....I looked at the radar an hour earlier and all the storms had dissipated from the evening round...then an hour later...boom! It was in IND's territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 14, 2018 Share Posted June 14, 2018 Looks like there may have been a tornado with injuries/possible fatalities in Pennsylvania of all places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 There's a marginal area now for E IN and most of Ohio today. Big change from yesterday's forecast for today when it looked to be dry. ILN has a nice write up. Quote Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 943 AM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018 NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... My how things have changed..... A lot to digest early this morning both observationally and through NWP when diagnosing the potential for convection this afternoon and evening. GOES 16 channels showing rapidly weakening MCS across MI this morning but a very apparent compact MCV left behind over lower MI, churning southeast with storms on its wrn and southeastern flank. MCS outflow has surged south into the ILN CWA on a Richmond IN to Delaware OH line, with accas billowing along it. Area radar VWPs do show stronger mid level flow /30kt/ in proximity to the MCV vs further south over southern OH. The 16.12Z KILN sounding was not unstable /yet/ with modest mid-level lapse rates and weak flow throughout the troposphere, however RAP soundings immediately west of here /Indiana/ show a large pool of instability lies just upstream. Through tonight - while highly performing global models /ECMWF/ have a dry forecast through tonight - the convective-permitting forecast guidance is much less optimistic. There seems to be a growing consensus of 3-4km guidance which initiates convection this afternoon over northern/central Ohio as the wrn flank of the MCV grazes the forecast area with stronger flow/forcing. This will be allowed due to the orientation of the mid-level ridge - such that as the MCV churns southeast this morning - it will turn more decidedly SSE this afternoon in a weakness on the backside of the ridge. Thus, given the large pool of CAPE over Indiana poised and ready to move on weak swly low level flow - rapid destabilization is expected through early afternoon north of the dying outflow. Due to weak forcing overall, hour-to-hour consistency via HRRR/RAP and other convective permitting guidance is poor on location/timing - but the picture is pretty clear that convection will be in the ILN CWA this afternoon and evening - and storm motions will be chaotic owing to a larger instability reservoir to the west, prevailing mid level winds pushing southeast, and outflow which will tend to be on NW-SE axis. Expect cores to move south/southeast - but net motion of clusters will probably /at the end of the day/ show some form of south to southwest net propagation - and this is clearly shown by Corfidi vector changes through the day which end up pointing southwest by this evening. Hazard will be almost-primarily limited to isolated/scattered damaging wind gusts with consolidating cores/outflow. This will be most prevalent along/west of I-71 where numerous downdraft parameters are aligned to showing greater threat. Deep layer flow is generally weak, with some modest enhancement due to the MCV in the 3-4km layer which may help add a bit of organization. But with very weak low level flow, outflows will be quick to race out ahead of convection. Increased rain chances most locations, with minimums in the Scioto Valley and northern Kentucky, and highest in central/west-central Ohio into southeast Indiana. This activity should very rapidly weaken past 7 PM or so with the onset of nocturnal cooling and a decoupling boundary layer and very little feed of theta-e above the inversion. Knocked a few degrees off the highs esp north of I-70 this afternoon. Quiet conditions are expected tonight, though it will be a very warm night, with temps near 70 and dewpoints in the mid 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 Big fan of the warm front in MN today. I’d bet it does something. Weak storm relative winds will probably make storms HP, but 0-1km SRH actually exists with this setup because of that boundary. Storms should initiate as supercells and have a few hours to do something before probable upscale growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2018 Share Posted June 17, 2018 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 544 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2018 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0525 PM TORNADO 4 NE POYNETTE 43.44N 89.36W 06/16/2018 COLUMBIA WI TRAINED SPOTTER BRIEF WEAK TORNADO ON THE GROUND FOR APPROX 3-4 MINS CAUSED TREE DAMAGE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY B AND DUNNING ROAD. REPORT CONFIRMED BY SOCIAL MEDIA PICTURE AND DAMAGE REPORT FROM SHERIFF`S OFFICE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 17, 2018 Share Posted June 17, 2018 Such typical 2018ing. Only tornado of the day is hundreds of miles from the highest probability area and tornado watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted June 17, 2018 Share Posted June 17, 2018 10 hours ago, hlcater said: Big fan of the warm front in MN today. I’d bet it does something. Weak storm relative winds will probably make storms HP, but 0-1km SRH actually exists with this setup because of that boundary. Storms should initiate as supercells and have a few hours to do something before probable upscale growth. I forgot what year it is. Nevermind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2018 Share Posted June 17, 2018 Would be nice if tomorrow's front could bring some interesting weather and not just a bunch of 40-50 mph gusts. Can't rule out severe with such a moist/unstable airmass though shear is on the lighter side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 17, 2018 Share Posted June 17, 2018 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: Would be nice if tomorrow's front could bring some interesting weather and not just a bunch of 40-50 mph gusts. Can't rule out severe with such a moist/unstable airmass though shear is on the lighter side. Wouldn't be super surprised to see the marginal risk get extended into our area tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 17, 2018 Share Posted June 17, 2018 6 hours ago, Hoosier said: Would be nice if tomorrow's front could bring some interesting weather and not just a bunch of 40-50 mph gusts. Can't rule out severe with such a moist/unstable airmass though shear is on the lighter side. Looks like a ROM marginal risk day, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 18, 2018 Share Posted June 18, 2018 CAMs generally have the line weakening/falling apart by the time it gets here. Hopefully it maintains a bit longer but not gonna hold my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 18, 2018 Share Posted June 18, 2018 Warning for Kenosha county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 18, 2018 Share Posted June 18, 2018 The boundary has surged out 10-15 miles ahead of the storms in northeast IL, so whatever severe threat there was looks even less now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 19, 2018 Share Posted June 19, 2018 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: The boundary has surged out 10-15 miles ahead of the storms in northeast IL, so whatever severe threat there was looks even less now. Yep, Rockford metro is getting absolutely pounded with heavy rain however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted June 19, 2018 Share Posted June 19, 2018 Some severe storms near Peoria, including a tor warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 19, 2018 Share Posted June 19, 2018 49 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: Some severe storms near Peoria, including a tor warning. Yep, may get some isolated svr this evening, but lapse rates are meager in our neck of the woods. I think the greater threat the next few days will be heavy, possibly flooding rains in our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 Nice warm front/triple point lifting through IA today, already 3 confirmed tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 Tornado warning west of Peoria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisBray Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 Starting to eye Iowa/MO/IL on Tuesday. Last few GFS/GEFS runs plus 12z euro have some nice parameters in place (40-50 knots bulk, 20knots LL shear, 3000ish SBCAPE) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 Interesting line of storms now forming from Terre Haute north to Danville area to my west moving east. One svr warned. Had a torrential rain here from 6 to 6:20 this evening after light to moderate rain all day as the swirling band lifted to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 This is more long term, but the Euro has been pretty consistent in showing big cape over the corn belt/Midwest later next week. The 6000J/kg max value on WxBell is exceeded in some cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 9 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: This is more long term, but the Euro has been pretty consistent in showing big cape over the corn belt/Midwest later next week. The 6000J/kg max value on WxBell is exceeded in some cases. It's summer, so it's thermonuclear cap worry time. But this year has really been strange and non traditional for wx in some respects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 22, 2018 Share Posted June 22, 2018 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: This is more long term, but the Euro has been pretty consistent in showing big cape over the corn belt/Midwest later next week. The 6000J/kg max value on WxBell is exceeded in some cases. Some of those values were over 8000J/kg if you checked the version 2 CAPE maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 22, 2018 Share Posted June 22, 2018 Next week is looking like MCSville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 23, 2018 Share Posted June 23, 2018 Public Information Statement National Weather Service Northern Indiana 243 PM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018 /143 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018/ ...DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 6/22/18 TORNADO EVENT... The combination of video and collaboration with a Van Wert County Emergency Management storm survey indicates an EF-0 tornado occurred Friday evening June 22nd, 2018 just to the southeast of Van Wert, OH. .TORNADO NEAR VAN WERT OH... Rating: EF-0 Estimated peak wind: 55-60 mph Path length /Statute/: 1.0 miles Path width /Maximum/: 180 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start date: 6/22/18 Start time: 6:51 PM EDT Start location: 5 miles SSE of Van Wert, OH Start Lat/Lon: 40.7955/-84.5452 End date: 6/22/18 End time: 6:55 PM EDT End location: 4 miles SSE of Van Wert, OH End_lat/lon: 40.8056/-84.5601 SUMMARY: The tornado began in a cornfield just to the southeast of the intersection of Mendon and Wren-Landeck Roads. Some shingle damage and a few downed large branches were noted at a residence along the path of the tornado as it tracked northwest. The tornado continued into another cornfield before dissipating in a tree line. Damage to a single tree was noted in the front of this tree line at the end of the tornado path. NOTE: The information in this statement is PRELIMINARY and subject to change pending final review of the events and publication in NWS Storm Data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 23, 2018 Share Posted June 23, 2018 I was just about to post that survey. It looks like one of the expected funnels actually made it to the ground. lol at the estimated wind speed, barely reaching severe levels. EDIT: Of course, it happened in Van Wert County, the tornado magnet of Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 23, 2018 Share Posted June 23, 2018 The 18z NAM is interesting and fairly impressive from DVN-ORD on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 23, 2018 Share Posted June 23, 2018 5 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: The 18z NAM is interesting and fairly impressive from DVN-ORD on Tuesday Indeed. Looks like it could be something worth watching (all the more considering how this year has gone so far) with amount of recovery and placement yet to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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