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2018 Short to Medium Range Severe Thread


tornadohunter

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9 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

So far it has been a lot of lightning and a constant low rumble here in CR.  The action has been one county west, while the weakening blowoff rain moves east into CR.

Nice bow developing near IIB, probably going to go just north of you. That's a nasty wind signature that far away from DVN.

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51 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

So far it has been a lot of lightning and a constant low rumble here in CR.  The action has been one county west, while the weakening blowoff rain moves east into CR.

Congrats!  Looks like you guys are getting some pretty nice action this eve.  

Have what may be the beginnings of a WAA wing from just east of the QC back up towards Maquoketa.  Thinking we're gonna get smacked here pretty good by the main line in a few hours.  

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6 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Woo!  It's not severe, but we're getting very heavy rain, with a bit of wind and a bit of pea size hail, and it's last for a while this time, not five minutes like every other cell this spring.

Very nice!  WAA wing storms exploding just west of here.  The cell just to the west has a small hail core already.  Could get interesting here sooner than I thought.

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

The couplets looked pretty nice on radar, nice and tight.  Problem is though the lowest beam height is over 5500ft out that way.  

That storm was a wall cloud party, I was there. Issue was that there were 2 separate surface circulations and both kept spitting out wall clouds and neither became dominant over the other. What we get then is a whole bunch of wall clouds that lack the "umpf" to get it done. What was interesting is that I initially started in Mason City and bagged a brief bird fart tornado up there. Only issue with these storms was that everything was super HP, apparently there were more tornadoes, but I couldn't see them. Then as those storms went outflow dominant, came back to CR for a bit before the Tama storm initiated, then headed back out again. This storm was thankfully more classic in nature and around sunset which made it better. All in all, pretty solid chase today.

Forest City bird fart tornado(if you look closely you can see debris above the road sign):

4977a34c4a33a087c51df6c83e083f96.jpg

 

Pretty nice whales mouth near Mason City:

8fec6275b4717fe7b63f3d11d1216639.jpg

 

and just one of the MANY wall clouds the storm near Tama/Belle Plaine produced.

 

9d1b7839607b919ce50d66ad3c25f902.jpg

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2 minutes ago, hlcater said:

That storm was a wall cloud party, I was there. Issue was that there were 2 separate surface circulations and both kept spitting out wall clouds and neither became dominant over the other. What we get then is a whole bunch of wall clouds that lack the "umpf" to get it done. What was interesting is that I initially started in Mason City and bagged a brief bird fart tornado up there. Only issue with these storms were that everything was super HP, apparently there were more tornadoes, but I couldn't see them. Then as those storms went outflow dominant, came back to CR for a bit before the Tama storm initiated, then headed back out again. This storm was thankfully more classic in nature and around sunset which made it better. All in all, pretty solid chase today.

Forest City bird fart tornado(if you look closely you can see debris above the road sign):

4977a34c4a33a087c51df6c83e083f96.jpg

 

Pretty nice whales mouth near Mason City:

8fec6275b4717fe7b63f3d11d1216639.jpg

 

and just one of the MANY wall clouds the storm near Tama/Belle Plaine produced.

 

9d1b7839607b919ce50d66ad3c25f902.jpg

Well done.  Capturing even a "bird fart" tornado in 2018 is a pretty nice accomplishment.  

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Sounds like a slight risk upgrade coming for parts of IL/IN and maybe Ohio on the next day 1 update.

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Mesoscale Discussion 0693 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 Areas affected...Central/Southern IL...Central/Southern IN...Western KY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101504Z - 101700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail and damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the lower and middle OH Valley during the next few hours. Isolated and marginal nature of the threat will likely preclude the need for a watch this morning into the early afternoon. However, late afternoon thunderstorms across western and central IL will likely merit an upgrade to Slight risk in the upcoming 1630Z Convective Outlook. DISCUSSION...Cluster of thunderstorms currently moving through east-central IL and central IN, which originated via warm-air advection in the wake of an overnight MCS, will continue to move southeastward across the OH Valley. This cluster is displaced northward of the better instability, suggesting a relatively low threat for severe thunderstorms. Some hail may be possible as a result of storm interaction, particularly on the back building west end of the cluster, but the overall severe threat appears low. More cellular convection has recently developed across far southern IN and adjacent portions of western KY along the leading outflow from the overnight MCS. As with areas farther north, a generally isolated severe threat is expected given the lack of instability and displacement south of the stronger flow aloft. A few water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts constitute the highest severe hazard. Farther west, a complex surface pattern exists. A surface low was analyzed just north of the IA/MO/IL border intersection with an effective warm front extending southeastward across central IL. Warm air advection across this boundary is supporting backbuilding convection near PIA. As mentioned previously, some isolated hail is possible in this area. A more widespread severe threat may develop across western IL this afternoon along and south/southwest of the warm front and an upgrade to Slight risk is probable with the upcoming 1630Z Convective Outlook. ..Mosier/Grams.. 06/10/2018

 

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Tornado warning for Bloomington IL.

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Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Lincoln IL 125 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018 ILC113-101845- /O.CON.KILX.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-180610T1845Z/ McLean- 125 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN MCLEAN COUNTY... At 125 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Bloomington, moving southeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This dangerous storm will be near... Downs around 130 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Shirley, Ellsworth, Bloomington Airport and Holder. This includes the following highways... Interstate 55 between mile markers 150 and 159, and between mile markers 168 and 170. Interstate 74 between mile markers 132 and 148.

 

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I'm living about a mile south of KBMI, and was fairly close to the couplet as it tracked through Bloomington. I didn't have a great view from my location, but I was able to see some decent low level rotation/wall cloud as the storm came through. A few tree limbs down here, but it seems the winds really got going about a county to my southeast. 

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Two tornadoes yesterday in Steuben County Indiana.

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
747 PM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018 /647 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018/

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 6/09/2018 TORNADO EVENT... 

.TORNADO # 1...

Rating:                 EF-1
Estimated peak wind:    105 mph
Path length /Statute/:  0.90 mile
Path width /Maximum/:   375 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start date:             6/09/2018
Start time:             6:34 PM ET
Start location:         Angola, IN
Start Lat/Lon:          41.6138/-85.0163

End date:               6/09/2018
End time:               6:40 PM ET
End location:           Angola, IN
End_lat/lon:            41.6181/-85.0002

SURVEY_SUMMARY: A weak EF-1 tornado caused widespread extensive tree damage 
knocking down trees along railroad tracks. Minor roof damage to a few 
structures was noted here as well.

.TORNADO #2...

Rating:                 EF-0
Estimated peak wind:    80 mph
Path length /Statute/:  0.70 mile
Path width /Maximum/:   200 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start date:             6/09/2018
Start time:             6:30 PM ET
Start location:         Angola, IN
Start Lat/Lon:          41.6050/-85.0271

End date:               6/09/2018
End time:               6:31 PM ET
End location:           Angola, IN
End_lat/lon:            41.6084/-85.0417

SURVEY_SUMMARY: A weak, but multi-funnel EF-0, according to witnesses, 
touched down in an empty field and then intensified somewhat as it rapidly
tracked east northeast removing a portion of a roof. It also caused damage 
to 2 barn structures as it crossed 150W and snapped/uprooted numerous trees 
before it lifted.
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Two very brief tornadoes on the SW side of Champaign yesterday. Also not included was a roughly 1 mile by 800 yard wide microburst, primarily on the U of I golf course, with roughly 80mph winds. 

Quote

000
NOUS43 KILX 112020
PNSILX
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-120830-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
320 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 06/10/18 TORNADO EVENT...

.OVERVIEW...

A line of severe thunderstorms moving from northwest to southeast,
advanced into Champaign County between 1:45 pm CDT and 3:00 pm CDT.
Two very brief, weak tornadoes spun up on the leading edge of the
line of storms on the southwest outskirts of the city of Champaign.
The line of storms was also responsible for widespread wind damage,
with estimated peak gusts of 60 to 80 mph, from Mahomet through
Champaign/Urbana to Broadlands.

.TORNADO #1 Champaign/Copper Ridge Road...

Rating:                 EF-0
Estimated peak wind:    80-85 mph
Path length /Statute/:  0.1 mile
Path width /Maximum/:   30 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start date:             Jun 10 2018
Start time:             2:16 pm CDT
Start location:         4.5 miles SW downtown Champaign, IL
Start Lat/Lon:          40.0844 / -88.3192

End date:               Jun 10 2018
End time:               2:17 pm CDT
End Location:           4.4 miles SW downtown Champaign, IL
End lat/lon:            40.0842 / -88.3181

SURVEY SUMMARY:
At 2:16 pm CDT a weak tornado briefly touched down in the backyward
of a residence on Copper Ridge Road. The tornado damaged the roofs
of two homes, damaged a shed, fencing, and trees. Eyewitnesses stated
the tornado dissipated in about 30 seconds or less, about one-tenth of
a mile to the east-southeast of where it formed.

.TORNADO 2 Champaign/Rolling Acres Drive...

Rating:                 EF-0
Estimated peak wind:    75-80 mph
Path length /Statute/:  0.1 mile
Path width /Maximum/:   20 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start date:             Jun 10 2018
Start time:             2:19 pm CDT
Start location:         4.2 miles SSW downtown Champaign, IL
Start Lat/Lon:          40.0677 / -88.2952

End date:               Jun 10 2018
End time:               2:20 pm CDT
End Location:           4.3 miles SSW downtown Champaign, IL
End lat/lon:            40.0670 / -88.2944

SURVEY SUMMARY:
After the tornado near Copper Ridge Road dissipated, the line of
thunderstorms produced wind damage to trees in Zahnd Park. The storm
crossed I-57, and then shortly thereafter, a second brief tornado
developed near Duncan Road and Rolling Acres Drive. This tornado
snapped off the tops of trees and did minor damage to two properties.
Similar to the first tornado, this tornado dissipated in less than a
minute, about one-tenth of a mile to the southeast of where it developed.

 

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1 hour ago, snowlover2 said:

Slight risk added from NE IA through NE WI on the new day 1 with marginal surrounding that. Pretty big change especially IA which for the most part wasn't even in the general storm area. Also marginal expanded northward in S IL and S OH.

HRRR and several other CAMs seem to be alluding to a chance for a few elevated supercells/hailers this evening and overnight. We'll see how that goes.

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