Geoboy645 Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 10 hours ago, hlcater said: Looks like the next several days are going to be quite conducive to MCSs across the sub. Some people don't like MCSs, but I for one will never turn them down. (unless its at 9 AM washing out severe weather, thats always fun.) Maybe a shot at something early on in the day Saturday and especially Sunday out here. However, because it's 2018, any formidable speed shear just doesn't exist, so neither day looks like anything more than a mesoscale day. Of course there'll be squalls now. I'm going up north on vacation for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 SPC has upgraded eastern Iowa to "Enhanced" severe chance tonight. The CAMs are consistently showing the MCV up in Minnesota refiring late this evening and diving southeast across eastern Iowa, with wind damage potential I'm sure. This may be my best chance of a good storm all spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 Yea I’m up in Mason City waiting to bust. HRRR has a completely awful handle on the current situation. Not resolving tstms in MN well at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 New day 2 remains the same but they mention higher probs likely needed for IL/IN in later outlooks. Quote ...Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valley... Moderate surface-based instability will likely develop in the vicinity of the quasi-stationary front given a very moist (upper 60s dew points) low-level air mass. Thunderstorm coverage will depend on mesoscale features, particularly the locations of convectively-enhanced upper-level disturbances embedded within modest west-northwest mid-level flow, and residual outflow boundaries. Isolated damaging winds will be the primary severe risk, with some risk for severe hail with the strongest storms. Higher severe probabilities may eventually be warranted across portions of IL/IN, where a more prominent MCV should be located Sunday afternoon. Given uncertainties regarding the evolution of Day 1 thunderstorms Saturday night, will retain Marginal categorical risk with this outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 tornado watch likely to be issued near or north of Cedar Rapids IA Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0682 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CDT Sat Jun 09 2018 Areas affected...Far southern MN...North-central/northeast IA Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 091846Z - 092045Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 Had my eye on the area from CCY to OLZ earlier this morning, based on an area of low clouds (low level moisture) merging with an approaching OFB from MN/WI convection. That area still looks pretty good, though CAMs are trending later and more isolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 That decaying storm that went just N of CCY also put down a boundary that should be pretty effective as a focus later. Sun will continue to heat both sides of that. Maybe that convection upstream will be able to interact with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 Confirmed tor on the ground nw of Mason City at present time of 3:45 CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 This radar image makes it seem likely that the tornado tracked near or over I-35 in Iowa. This is kind of far from the ARX radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 62 knot gust at MCW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 There's definitely a residual boundary this TOR warned cell is about to cross. Briefly though, as it's more N/S than E/W based on visible satellite. Subtle, but 91/67 at IFA, and 85/70 ALO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: There's definitely a residual boundary this TOR warned cell is about to cross. Briefly though, as it's more N/S than E/W based on visible satellite. Subtle, but 91/67 at IFA, and 85/70 ALO New cell popping just east of Aredale kind of along that same convergence zone. That little convergence line snakes all the way towards Anamosa, and looks to be lifting slowly northward. Wonder if we'll see more sups develop along that as the other storms build in from the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 1 minute ago, cyclone77 said: New cell popping just east of Aredale kind of along that same convergence zone. That little convergence line snakes all the way towards Anamosa, and looks to be lifting slowly northward. Wonder if we'll see more sups develop along that as the other storms build in from the northwest. That slightly cooler/slight more moist air is going to help keep LCLs lower. We can already see the wind is having no issue reaching the ground, with several 70+ reports coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 90 knots gate to gate there near Rockford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 Those cells up near the MN border north of Riceville and Cresco are looking kind of interesting as well. Another east/west convergent boundary in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 Bulk shear is increasing across most of IA with ML CAPE around 2000 ahead of that tor producing cell as it moves e/se. Helicity, however, is higher to the nw of the cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 Warning for here, gonna be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 Hmm very odd with the rotation on that cell as well. Wouldn’t be shocked at all to see something rain wrapped, the correlation coefficient is up to something with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 24 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Warning for here, gonna be fun. There is some broad rotation. IWX is getting reports of a possible tornado touchdown south of Angola in Stueben Co. EMA is reporting damage in that area.They are getting a survey team together. EDIT: When I say they, I mean IWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, IWXwx said: There is some broad rotation. IWX is getting reports of a possible tornado touchdown south of Angola in Stueben Co. EMA is reporting damage in that area.They are getting a survey team together. EDIT: When I say they, I mean IWX Both the CC and even base res show a rain wrapped tornado IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 I scrolled back my GRLevel 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 It looks like that maybe we had not only a brief random spinup, but it could be a multi-state tornado. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 Yeah there was definitely something there I went back on my radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 Definitely was something from Clear Lake to Montgomery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 Some new cells starting to pop north of Grinnell down towards the better instability. Nice ML LR plume nosing into the southern half of Iowa. The southwesterly LLJ should keep things blowing up on the west side of the complex for much of the night. Parts of eastern Iowa could really get dumped on tonight. The LR plume and LLJ should keep the strongest storms right about where SPC has the enhanced placed IMO. Waterloo/CR/Muscatine would be my favored area for the heaviest rains tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 Tornado warning west of Cedar Rapids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 41 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Tornado warning west of Cedar Rapids. Still a pretty favorable thermodynamic environment across eastern IA. RAP suggests it stabilizes a bit by the river, but CID is right int the threat-e axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 Those cells have a very IOW 2006 look to them, with the forward flank shearing off to the SE and the mesocyclones to the W, coming after the heavy rain and hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 Helicity has increased significantly over eastern IA from what it was earlier this evening, probably accounting for the sig tor values up to 3 in the area. We'll see if storms weaken as they head east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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