largetornado Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 there *might* be a chance for some severe north of i80 Sunday (Michigan) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 28, 2018 Share Posted May 28, 2018 Apparently there was a landspout in the southern LOT cwa (Newton co.) yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 New day 1 has an enhanced area for SE MO/S IL/SW IN/NW KY for wind and significant hail. Quote Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Thu May 31 2018 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO...SOUTHERN IL...SOUTHERN IN...AND FAR WESTERN KY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible Thursday from the Missouri Ozarks to the lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valleys as well as the northern High Plains and northern Rockies. ...Synopsis... Upper trough currently extending along the West Coast will gradually progress eastward throughout the day, likely extending from southern British Columbia through the Great Basin by 12Z Friday. Ridging will build across the Plains with the increasingly confluent flow ahead of the upper trough contributing to a gradual strengthening of the mid-level flow ahead of it. Farther east, the remnants of Alberto will continue northward into central Ontario, eventually becoming absorbed into the shortwave trough moving gradually across Ontario and upper Great Lakes. At the surface, low currently over eastern MT will become more defined throughout the day. Lee troughing will extend southward from this low to another low over southeast CO. Convective outflow from the ongoing MCS across northern OK/southern KS is expected to extend from southern IL across southern MO and into northeast OK. ...Ozark Plateau into the Mid-MS, Lower OH, and TN Valleys... Expectation is for the remnants/convectively induced vorticity from the ongoing MCS over northern OK/southern KS to move across central MO and into central IL from the early afternoon into the early evening. Outflow from this system will likely extend southwestward from southern IL across southern MO and into northeast OK. Both of these features (i.e. the vorticity maximum and outflow boundary) will act as stimuli for convection as the airmass destabilizes. Given the mesoscale nature of both of these features, some uncertainty exists regarding their actual location during the afternoon but consensus, both from the HREF members and NAM/GFS, places them near the areas described above. Airmass across the region will be quite moist with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s and 100-mb mean mixing ratios near 15 to 16 g per kg. Strong diurnal heating is also anticipated, with temperatures in the upper 80s during the afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates aren't overly steep but the warm and very moist airmass still supports MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg. Additionally, some enhancement to the mid-level flow is possible as a result of the remnant MCS. Expectation is for initial discrete storms capable of very large hail to quickly transition into more linear/bowing segments favoring damaging wind gusts. Low-level flow isn't particularly favorable for tornadoes but the presence of the outflow boundary, strong low-level instability, and very moist airmass still supports a low-end tornado threat. Across the remainder of the region, favorable low-level moisture will result in afternoon destabilization and thunderstorm development amidst the broad low-level confluence. Isolated damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible with the more persistent updrafts and/or as a result of storm interactions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Watch just issued for SE IL and southern half of IN. Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 136 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CDT Thu May 31 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Illinois Southern Indiana Northern Kentucky * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 1030 AM until 500 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...A cluster of fast-moving thunderstorms over southern Illinois will track eastward across the watch area today, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles either side of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Evansville IN to 50 miles north northeast of Louisville KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Hart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Quit a bit of damage reports rolling in from Benton and DuQuoin IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Perhaps this could be classified as a derecho. It would be fun to see a wind of 60mph for a minute or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 IWX issued a head-scratching 3 t-storm warnings for my county in a half an hours' time for some pulse storms earlier this afternoon. So of course, I had to deploy spotters just so they could report no hail and no winds reported over 20 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 And here at Fortville I managed to miss the svr warned cell issued for Hancock County earlier this afternoon. Will see what any stray cells coming in from IL may hold yet today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Thought I was going to get split by the bow echo moving south of me and scattered severe moving just north of me but an OFB moving NE from the north part of the bow echo moved in and a storm exploded just west of me. Wasn't severe but had 30-40mph winds and torrential rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Baseball size hail tor warned cell west of Poplar Bluff Mo just before 5 p.m. CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Nice little line of storms moving into western IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 1, 2018 Share Posted June 1, 2018 ...and yet another t-storm warning for my county today with no severe weather, just a nice summer's night thunderstorm. At least my spotters weren't playing whack-a-mole like we did with the pulse storms this afternoon. I'm thinking 4 warned storms in a 7 hour period with no severe has to be some kind of record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 1, 2018 Share Posted June 1, 2018 Turned out to be a pretty good day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted June 2, 2018 Share Posted June 2, 2018 On 5/31/2018 at 10:14 PM, IWXwx said: ...and yet another t-storm warning for my county today with no severe weather, just a nice summer's night thunderstorm. At least my spotters weren't playing whack-a-mole like we did with the pulse storms this afternoon. I'm thinking 4 warned storms in a 7 hour period with no severe has to be some kind of record. Yeah, definitely a bizarre weather day. Received zero actual severe reports, as in measurements, but TONS of gorgeous photos. I mean, if the bulletins were reworded as Sexy Cloud Warnings or something, then I'd say their accuracy would be 110%! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted June 4, 2018 Share Posted June 4, 2018 Maybe I'm thinking too much into this, but I'm extremely interested if there's a relationship between the behavior of 2010s severe wx as a whole, and the late 1980s, and you could probably even include the early 30s and late 40s as well. All of these periods where characterized by low tornado counts, and many of these years were also fighting drought conditions in at least some part of the plains/midwest. Seems to be a distinct spacial correlation between these periods, almost like a 20-30 year oscillation. But correlation isn't causation. I wish someone smart would do a research paper into this, I think there might be something there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 5, 2018 Share Posted June 5, 2018 18 hours ago, hlcater said: Maybe I'm thinking too much into this, but I'm extremely interested if there's a relationship between the behavior of 2010s severe wx as a whole, and the late 1980s, and you could probably even include the early 30s and late 40s as well. All of these periods where characterized by low tornado counts, and many of these years were also fighting drought conditions in at least some part of the plains/midwest. Seems to be a distinct spacial correlation between these periods, almost like a 20-30 year oscillation. But correlation isn't causation. I wish someone smart would do a research paper into this, I think there might be something there. That is interesting, and worth noting although the detailed tornado record doesn't really go back far enough to draw any definitive conclusions. However, the late '80s dry period didn't come right on the heels of a Super Outbreak, which had been ~10 years prior. Will also be interesting to see if the downswing is followed by a significant upswing as happened in the '90s. Pretty much every year in the first half of that decade except 1994 had impressive tornado activity throughout multiple regions and throughout different times of the spring, and in the fall as well (November 1992). Frankly I think we were lucky to get through that period without a mass-fatality event like occurred twice in 2011, with the impressive numbers of intense, long-track tornadoes in various outbreaks from 1992-93. Back on topic, today's potential in the Dakotas seems to have diminished. GFS continues to tease the possibility of some active days next week, but also the possibility that it could be another dud (speaking here for MBY and areas within daily local chase range - southern WI, IA east of I-35 and IL north of I-80, possibly SE MN along the I-90 corridor). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 6, 2018 Share Posted June 6, 2018 Well that red colour looks nice. Unfortunately the severe season still does not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 6, 2018 Share Posted June 6, 2018 1 hour ago, andyhb said: Well that red colour looks nice. Unfortunately the severe season still does not. Congrats Well, 8 years ago tonight we were in the midst of a tornado outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 6, 2018 Share Posted June 6, 2018 1 hour ago, andyhb said: Well that red colour looks nice... Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 6, 2018 Share Posted June 6, 2018 Thanks guys, and yeah I'm starting to think me joining seven years ago was the catalyst for the severe seasons going downhill in a hurry lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 6, 2018 Share Posted June 6, 2018 18 minutes ago, andyhb said: Thanks guys, and yeah I'm starting to think me joining seven years ago was the catalyst for the severe seasons going downhill in a hurry lol. Agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 6, 2018 Share Posted June 6, 2018 Anyone else get a kick out of the 0z GGEM for next Monday-Wednesday morning? Almost looked like it was trying to show a derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 6, 2018 Share Posted June 6, 2018 There's a bunch of big stuff from just west of Cedar Rapids over to central Iowa. It is expected to dive south and miss CR. It has been one of those years in which all the big stuff avoids my yard. However, my garden could certainly do without the 70 mph wind and golfball size hail being reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 6, 2018 Share Posted June 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: There's a bunch of big stuff from just west of Cedar Rapids over to central Iowa. It is expected to dive south and miss CR. It has been one of those years in which all the big stuff avoids my yard. However, my garden could certainly do without the 70 mph wind and golfball size hail being reported. Yeah it's been a very slow year. Think we've been in a slight risk once, and it was walked back to a marginal the day of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 7, 2018 Share Posted June 7, 2018 On 6/5/2018 at 8:41 PM, andyhb said: Well that red colour looks nice. Unfortunately the severe season still does not. Have always appreciated your insights, knowledge, and cautions over the years and extend my best congratulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisBray Posted June 7, 2018 Share Posted June 7, 2018 Finally some signs of life this weekend. NAM likes saturday in Iowa, Sunday in Illinois. Let's see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 7, 2018 Share Posted June 7, 2018 Looks like LAF is getting nailed. The airport gusted to 52 mph on the most recent ob... which is impressive as it seemed like it often came in on the lower end when I was there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 32 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Looks like LAF is getting nailed. The airport gusted to 52 mph on the most recent ob... which is impressive as it seemed like it often came in on the lower end when I was there. Might get hammered here before long if those storms NW of me hold together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 Looks like the next several days are going to be quite conducive to MCSs across the sub. Some people don't like MCSs, but I for one will never turn them down. (unless its at 9 AM washing out severe weather, thats always fun.) Maybe a shot at something early on in the day Saturday and especially Sunday out here. However, because it's 2018, any formidable speed shear just doesn't exist, so neither day looks like anything more than a mesoscale day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 lol at the new 12z 3km NAM. Actual radar vs. the model''s simulated radar. Must have been some kind of initialization problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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