Jackstraw Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 I can't even get in on that! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 Seems like we just don't have the necessary ingredients to come together in the right fashion with this system to produce svr weather. Mid levels too warm...etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 Might be a decent roll cloud with the line from the looks on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 2 hours ago, Jackstraw said: Might be a decent roll cloud with the line from the looks on radar. Here is the leading edge of the line as it rolled into Huntington County. We were on this particular part of the line because it was the section that didn't look outflow dominated. Nothing severe, but pretty cool nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Their was a supercell in east central IL (De Witt/Piatt/Champaign Counties) today looked pretty nasty for about an hour or so it was Tornado Warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Looks like at least a modest severe threat around here on Wednesday. Instability, or lack of, is the biggest issue, with rather poor mid level lapse rates and lots of clouds expected. If better heating can be realized, then it could get a little more interesting. Surface low is progged to be deepening with respectable wind fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Quite a bit more sunshine than I expected around here this morning. Clouds off to the west also have that "convectivey" look - not too common in October around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Looks like a prefrontal trough feature tomorrow. Could be a little sleeper but then again just may not have enough instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 IA/MO upgraded to ENH risk for tor... 10% probs introduced Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST MO TO CENTRAL IA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and isolated to scattered damaging winds are expected from parts of Texas to Iowa, mainly through about 9 PM CDT. The most likely area for multiple tornadoes is from northwest Missouri to central Iowa. ...TX to IA... Have upgraded to Enhanced Risk for tornadoes across parts from northwest MO to central IA. Shortwave trough over the southern High Plains will move north-northeast into the central Great Plains through tonight. Attendant 1003-mb surface cyclone near the central OK/KS border should deepen slightly as it tracks toward the Omaha vicinity by evening. An extensive QLCS is ongoing in an arc from eastern OK into north-central TX and then through central TX. The surging portion of the line will generally track east towards the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex regions with trailing portion more slowly progressing east across much of eastern/southern TX this afternoon. In addition, more discrete convection should develop from the Lower MO Valley towards the Upper MS Valley during the late afternoon. The swath of stronger low-level flow will shift northeast from KS/OK towards IA/MO in conjunction with the ejecting trough and surface cyclone. This should correspondingly result in enlarged low-level hodographs overspreading the western periphery of moderate boundary-layer heating underway across central/eastern MO into eastern IA. This scenario may result in multiple, discrete tornadic supercells developing from northwest MO across central IA around peak heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Meanwhile downgraded here in WI despite more sunshine than I thought this AM...nearly overcast now though. It smells like spring outside which feels very strange with the trees beginning to turn. HRRR is bouncing around like mad every hour with the location of potential discrete rotating cells in S. WI, but what it does tell me is I need to keep a close watch on radar trends later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Welp, everything in eastern IA looks like a mini-supercell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 A couple (about to cross highways 30 near Lowden and 20 near Peosta) are already rotating in the lowest levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 For what it's worth - the significant tornado parameter is up to 1.0 over the Kansas City region, and is expected to reach 1.0-2.0 values over Missouri/Iowa in 2 hrs (SPC mesoanalysis) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Chinook said: For what it's worth - the significant tornado parameter is up to 1.0 over the Kansas City region, and is expected to reach 1.0-2.0 values over Missouri/Iowa in 2 hrs (SPC mesoanalysis) Even within that line itself the environment is pretty favorable for mesos. Any northward surging segment of that line would be a candidate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Lots of good looking low level mesos now in Van Buren, Jefferson, Mahaska, Iowa, and Delaware Counties. Mahaska especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 The couplets are so tiny or even hard to spot at all on some of these cells, but perhaps it's a case of me looking after they weakened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 The local mets were all on tv for four hours this afternoon/evening due to the tornado warnings. However, all they really did was follow wall clouds across the area. One met, Terry Swails, seemed bored by evening and was clearly ready for a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Glad things weren't any worse. All eyes are on Michael. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Central Iowa was the place to be in 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 10 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Central Iowa was the place to be in 2018. Things I never expected to hear... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Although it pales in comparison to all the excitement with Michael, I went on a spur-of-the-moment chase yesterday afternoon and got on the little cell near Arena/Spring Green, WI just as it was tornado-warned. The updraft tower and striated base can be seen in this video from my dash-mounted GoPro. A few scans showed a bit of a couplet but there was nothing confirmed from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 That trough early next week showing up across guidance, including quite a strong signal on the ensembles, has my attention for a potential severe wx threat (and a widespread one at that) assuming enough moisture return is available. There already is an established low amplitude trough across the central US and a powerful jet max slides SE into it and somewhat amplifies/kicks the trough negative tilt. The 12z Euro was getting 60s dewpoints all the way into Michigan. There are, as it sits right now, some similarities synoptically to the 10/18/07 severe wx event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 Getting a little concerned for Indiana for midday election day Tuesday from looking at 18z GFS parameters as well. Of course things will change but bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 1 hour ago, Indystorm said: Getting a little concerned for Indiana for midday election day Tuesday from looking at 18z GFS parameters as well. Of course things will change but bears watching. Blue dog weather if it pans out. As much as I want some action be nice if itt fizzles. Sorry, couldn't resist, spank my socialist ass Hoosier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 I posted about this in the TN Valley thread as it appears right now the higher risk/coverage will be in that region. Of course SPC seems to have forgotten to issue the Day 4-8 outlook this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 One of the first things I look for in these non-summertime setups is the moisture return. In this case, moisture return actually gets underway on Saturday/Sunday in advance of an initial system that ejects into the upper Midwest, although it is fairly modest. Still, it's better to have that than a setup that has very little time for moisture advection. Moisture is just one factor of course. Will have to see about timing/track/intensity of the Tuesday system, which will play a role in location and magnitude of any severe threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 I believe that's called priming the pump. November 5th of last year I was chasing. Let's do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 1 hour ago, IWXwx said: I believe that's called priming the pump. November 5th of last year I was chasing. Let's do this. That being said, it's not the most ideal prime the pump scenario ever, as the cold front with the lead system does press fairly far south, especially farther west toward the Plains. The front with that first system never really moves through the OV though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: That being said, it's not the most ideal prime the pump scenario ever, as the cold front with the lead system does press fairly far south, especially farther west toward the Plains. The front with that first system never really moves through the OV though. If that lead system doesnt dig far south we will be in a very favorable position because even with it weaker it would bring moisture north while not shunting it back south any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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