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2018 Short to Medium Range Severe Thread

tornadohunter

By tornadohunter,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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snowlover2

snowlover2

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, NTXYankee said:

Apparently per ILN a tornado is confirmed in Franklin County on east side of Columbus.  When it occurred I don’t know. We had storms in the early morning but received no alerts.

  


000
NOUS41 KILN 261716
PNSILN
OHZ055-270045-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
116 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2018

...TORNADO CONFIRMED SOUTH OF BROAD STREET IN EAST COLUMBUS 
IN FRANKLIN COUNTY OHIO...

...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUING TO SURVEY STORM DAMAGE IN EASTERN 
FRANKLIN COUNTY OHIO...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON OH HAS CONFIRMED THAT A 
TORNADO IS RESPONSIBLE FOR DAMAGE IN EAST COLUMBUS SOUTH OF BROAD 
STREET, EAST OF JAMES ROAD.

THE SURVEY TEAM IS CONTINUING TO ASSESS DAMAGE IN AND AROUND THIS 
AREA AND A FINAL ASSESSMENT INCLUDING RESULTS FROM THE SURVEY WILL 
BE COMPLETED AND TRANSMITTED VIA A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT THIS 
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. INFORMATION WILL ALSO BE MADE AVAILABLE ON OUR 
WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILN.

$$

KK

Officially an EF1 that happened just before 6am this morning with no tornado warning. Still can't figure out why it pastes like this for me.

Quote

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 630 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2018 ...TORNADO CONFIRMED IN EAST COLUMBUS AND NEAR BEXLEY IN FRANKLIN COUNTY OHIO... START LOCATION...OLDE TOWNE EAST NEIGHBORHOOD IN COLUMBUS IN FRANKLIN COUNTY OHIO END LOCATION...MAYFAIR NEIGHBORHOOD OF COLUMBUS IN FRANKLIN COUNTY OHIO DATE...09/26/2018 ESTIMATED TIME...553 AM EDT MAXIMUM EF- SCALE RATING...EF1 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...90 MPH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...150 YARDS PATH LENGTH...3.75 MILES BEGINNING LAT/LON...39.9564/-82.9702 ENDING LAT/LON...39.9712/-92.9025 * FATALITIES...0 * INJURIES...0 ...SUMMARY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, IN CONJUNCTION WITH FRANKLIN COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND HOMELAND SECURITY, CONDUCTED A STORM DAMAGE SURVEY TO AREAS OF COLUMBUS AND BEXLEY OHIO IN FRANKLIN COUNTY. DAMAGE EVIDENT OF A WEAK TORNADO BEGAN IN THE OLDE TOWNE NEIGHBORHOOD OF COLUMBUS. THERE WERE NUMEROUS LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN OR TREE TRUNKS SNAPPED, ALONG WITH A PICKUP TRUCK THAT WAS BRIEFLY PARTIALLY LIFTED OFF THE GROUND SUFFERED DAMAGE TO BOTH PASSENGER SIDE TIRES AS IT WAS FORCED BACK DOWN TO THE PAVEMENT. IN THE SAME AREA OF OLDE TOWNE, THERE WAS DAMAGE TO POWER POLES. DAMAGE IN THIS AREA WAS CONSISTENT WITH AN EF0 STRENGTH TORNADO. FURTHER DOWN THE DAMAGE PATH, SEVERAL AREAS OF TREE DAMAGE OCCURRED IN THE BEXLEY AREA. FURTHER DOWN THE PATH IN THE MAYFAIR NEIGHBORHOOD NEAR EAST BROAD STREET AND SOUTH JAMES ROAD, THIS IS WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TORNADO DAMAGE OCCURRED AND WHERE THE WIND SPEEDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE THE HIGHEST. SEVERAL HOMES IN THIS NEIGHBORHOOD SUSTAINED ROOF, SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. THERE WERE NUMEROUS LARGE TREES UPROOTED OR SNAPPED, CAUSING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO HOMES, GARAGES AND VEHICLES. ADDITIONALLY, 2 CINDER BLOCK GARAGES HAD THEIR ROOF COMPLETELY LIFTED OFF, WITH 1 OR 2 BLOCK WALLS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED. IT WAS THIS DAMAGE WHICH WAS CONSISTENT WITH WIND SPEEDS OF ABOUT 90 MPH. DAMAGE IN THIS NEIGHBORHOOD WAS CONSISTENT WITH LOW END EF1 TORNADO WINDS. THERE WAS NO EVIDENCE NOR REPORTS OF DAMAGE FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS AREA, SO FROM HERE IT APPEARS THE TORNADO LIFTED AND DISSIPATED.

 

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

2 tornadoes confirmed by DTX

  


Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
314 PM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

...SUMMARY NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR THE 09/25/2018 TORNADO EVENTS...

...TORNADO CONFIRMED AND RATED EF1 IN FRENCHTOWN TOWNSHIP IN
MONROE COUNTY...

.Frenchtown Township tornado...

Update...No new changes to this tornado event.

Rating:                 EF-1
Estimated peak wind:    95-100 mph
Path length /Statute/:  4.3 miles
Path width /Maximum/:   400 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start date:             SEP 25 2018
Start time:             823 PM EDT
Start location:         41.9562 / -83.4321

End date:               SEP 25 2018
End time:               832 PM EDT
End location:           42.0099 / -83.3892

SURVEY SUMMARY: The path began as weak EF0 damage, mainly to
trees, until near Reinhardt and Heiss roads where it became a solid
EF0. The tornado reached EF1 strength near Toben and South Stony
Creek roads where roofing material was removed leaving exposed
trusses and windows that were blown out of homes in the area.
Garage doors were also blown in and many trees were damaged and
uprooted. EF0 damage to siding and tree limbs was noted before the
tornado dissipated near North Stoney Creek road and the railroad
tracks.

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into
the following categories.

EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph
EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph
EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph
EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph
EF4...Violent...166 To 200 mph
EF5...Violent...>200 mph

...SECOND TORNADO CONFIRMED AND RATED EF0 IN MONROE AND WAYNE
COUNTIES...

.Berlin Township and Gibraltar tornado...

Update...This is new information regarding this tornado event.

Rating:                 EF-0
Estimated peak wind:    65 mph
Path length /Statute/:  4.0 miles
Path width /Maximum/:   100 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start date:             SEP 25 2018
Start time:             845 PM EDT
Start location:         42.0356 / -83.264

End date:               SEP 25 2018
End time:               852 PM EDT
End location:           42.0870 / -83.225

SURVEY SUMMARY: An EF0 tornado began in Berlin Township in Monroe
County just south of Sigler Road on North Dixie Highway. The tornado
remained at EF0 strength throughout the entire path length, before
dissipating near the intersection of Meadow Lane and Ostreich Road in
Wayne County near the border of Brownstown Charter Township and the city
of Gibraltar. Damage included multiple limbs and large trees downed,
along with missing shingles to a house near the end of the tornado path.

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into
the following categories.

EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph
EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph
EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph
EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph
EF4...Violent...166 To 200 mph
EF5...Violent...>200 mph

NOTE:
The information in this statement is PRELIMINARY and subject to
change pending final review of the events and publication in
NWS Storm Data.

$$

RBP/DRK/AA/BT/IRL/TF/SP

They confirmed a 3rd tornado (in Rockwood). The 3 tornadoes were in relatively close distance to each other.

 

I had a torrential 2.48" of rain in less than an hour, but no severe. Gibralter is just to my south. I missed a tornado on August 1st about 5 miles to my west. Its crazy that in such a lackluster severe season in MI I missed 2 tornadoes by mere miles.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted 
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1238 PM CDT Sun Sep 30 2018

   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME
   EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
   WISCONSIN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening across
   primarily parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois and southern
   Wisconsin.

   ...IA/northern IL/southern WI/Lower MI/northwest IN...
   A shortwave trough, currently moving through OR and northern
   CA/northwest NV per satellite imagery, is expected to deamplify as
   it progresses downstream through a continued split belts of
   westerlies converging into strong zonal flow straddling the
   Canadian/U.S. border area.  Forcing for ascent attendant to this
   trough will shift east across the northern Plains into the Upper
   Midwest by Monday afternoon, including across the surface warm front
   extending from eastern IA into far northern IL or far southern WI.

   Upper air analyses from Saturday night into this morning indicated
   continued poleward moisture return across the southern Great Plains
   through the lower Missouri Valley to northern IL, along and south of
   a stationary boundary, currently extending from northern KS to
   northern IL/IN to northern OH.  Ascent attendant to the progressive
   shortwave trough will induce surface wave development along this
   front in southern to southeast IA by early Monday afternoon, with
   the low tracking into northern IL as the front advances north as a
   warm front.  

   Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing within a low-level
   warm advection regime north of the surface front from IA to along
   and north of the IL/WI border to southern Lower MI at 12Z Monday. 
   Models do suggest most of the precipitation through Monday afternoon
   may occur north of the front.  However, there is some indication per
   forecast soundings, that sufficient diabatic heating/weak-moderate
   destabilization will occur within a relatively moist environment
   (surface dew points into the middle 60s and precipitable water
   exceeding 1.5 inches), given the presence of steep midlevel lapse
   rates.  These factors combined with an increase in wind profiles
   just ahead of the frontal wave including sizable clockwise curved
   low-level hodographs, in the presence of 30-50 kt flow in the
   850-500 mb layer support the introduction of higher severe
   probabilities and a categorical Slight risk area.  This environment
   could become conducive for an isolated supercell or two capable of
   producing a tornado, severe hail and possibly damaging wind.  A
   small convective system may eventually evolve, which could pose a
   risk for potentially damaging wind gusts before activity diminishes
   in waning boundary layer instability Monday evening.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   5%     - Slight
   Wind:     15%     - Slight
   Hail:     15%     - Slight

   ..Peters.. 09/30/2018

 

day2otlk_1730.gif.8d19148095fb498504633b9168d84783.gif

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

The normally (over)bullish 3K NAM says meh. Lots of showers, nil updraft helicity until after dark (elevated).

Noticed that too.  It's been consistently meh for several runs now, which is a bit concerning.  On the other hand the HRRR looks better, and evolves quite a bit of surface-based convection by late afternoon.  The NSSL model does as well.  Looks like the 3km has much more of a wedge of warm air around H7 than most other guidance.  That provides just enough capping to keep things pretty subdued.  Hopefully the 3km is overdoing that little warm layer.  There is certainly plenty of surface/moisture convergence to get things going.  Also a nice little ripple in the mid-layers should help as well.  If we can get the surface-based storms to initiate then it would appear there is a decent severe threat in the area SPC outlined.  Best tor threat would likely be along wherever the east/west warm front ends up setting up.  Also a nice little triple point in play as well.

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CheeselandSkies

CheeselandSkies

Posted
Posted

Of course 11 and 12Z HRRR want to put the only thing resembling a possible warm-sector supercell through Jo Daviess County, the worst chase terrain in northern Illinois (and the only part without a proper grid road network). Even that aside, the CAMs are not particularly encouraging. Looks like a dreary fall afternoon at home unless things change drastically.

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

Looks like the best chance for supercell tors will be out near Cedar Rapids, and up towards Dubuque/far northwest tip of IL.  After that the best chance will be with any kinks that develop within the line after the storms sort of line up.  If I were chasing I'd head towards Vinton or Monticello.  

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

Hats off to the 3km NAM.  It pegged this setup for several days.  Warm layer aloft looks like it killed this setup.  

EDIT:  Just noticed DVN launched a balloon at 20z.  Clearly shows that H7 warm layer that the 3km NAM consistently shown.  Surface cape got a little better after this sounding was made, but still could have used more of that as well.  Also, even though we had very nice surface/moisture convergence apparently there wasn't enough forcing for ascent to erode that capping layer.  Needed a slightly more potent short wave to get 'er done apparently.

2dbwikw.jpg

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Jackstraw

Jackstraw

Posted
Posted

Well it's really sucked around here lately, all storm season really.  Energy has been focused to far north or we've been in diurnal disfavor.  I'm still glass half full for the next 6 weeks or so though.  Fantasy land is still trending to some favorable storm tracks.  Some good cold pooling in the Great White North helps.  We shall see.

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geddyweather

geddyweather

Posted
Posted

Shocked no one has posted anything about this yet, but there are TWO reportedly large and extremely dangerous tornadoes currently associated with supercells to the south of Erie, PA. First one near Centerville, PA, second one near Conneautville, PA. One has reportedly struck a nursing home. Not a good situation currently unfolding in an otherwise overlooked slight risk area...

EDIT: may fit better in the upstate NY/PA forum. Put it in here because it is Cleveland's CWA.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, geddyweather said:

Shocked no one has posted anything about this yet, but there are TWO reportedly large and extremely dangerous tornadoes currently associated with supercells to the south of Erie, PA. First one near Centerville, PA, second one near Conneautville, PA. One has reportedly struck a nursing home. Not a good situation currently unfolding in an otherwise overlooked slight risk area...

EDIT: may fit better in the upstate NY/PA forum. Put it in here because it is Cleveland's CWA. 

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
328 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

PAC039-021945-
/O.CON.KCLE.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-181002T1945Z/
Crawford PA-
328 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY...

At 328 PM EDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located
near Harmonsburg, or 8 miles northwest of Meadville, moving east at
35 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to
         homes#commaOrEllipsis()businesses#commaOrEllipsis()and
         vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northwestern Crawford County, including the following locations...
Conneautville and Conneaut Lakeshore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is developing. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to
a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4169 8046 4178 8049 4180 8027 4163 8027
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 276DEG 32KT 4171 8029

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL...1.00IN
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Chinook

Chinook

Posted
Posted

The models are showing a line of showers and thunderstorms popping up around Madison WI tomorrow at 03z. The severe parameters aren't too bad. If the area can maintain over 1000 J/kg of CAPE after sunset, then maybe we will get some severe reports in Wisconsin or Illinois. It might even get close to Chicago.

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CheeselandSkies

CheeselandSkies

Posted
Posted

Not sure why SPC expanded the risk areas at 13Z (Madison now solidly in the slight/5% TOR). Latest HRRR not at all bullish on strong UH except in the UP (northwest of the enhanced risk), elevated and close to/after dark. Latest 3K NAM has a clusterfest/possible derecho for NE WI.

This should be leaf peeping season up there. Really hard to believe a severe threat today let alone a greater one 300 miles north of here feeling the cool air outside this morning.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

70/40 tor probs on the tornado watch... decent for October standards 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0395.html

  

SEL5

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 395
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   330 PM CDT Wed Oct 3 2018

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Upper Michigan
     Eastern Minnesota
     Northern and central Wisconsin
     Lake Michigan
     Lake Superior

   * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 330 PM
     until 1100 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 80 mph possible
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...The air mass will continue to rapidly moisten and
   destabilize as a warm front continues to spread northward. This will
   allow for storms to continue to intensify. Very strong winds through
   a deep-layer will allow for both supercells and bowing segments.
   Given the very moist environment and strength of the
   deep-layer/low-level winds, a tornado risk exists, a few of which
   could be strong/intense. Storms will steadily race
   east-northeastward into northeast Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula
   of Michigan this evening.
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CheeselandSkies

CheeselandSkies

Posted
Posted

MD now out saying watch incoming for southern WI. Things finally look to be firing off around the Twin Cities. That earlier cluster that produced some hail in NC WI I suspect was elevated. Problem is there's less than an hour of daylight left.

We shall see but I suspected SPC's strong wording was once again overblown given the lack of CAM support, and I haven't seen anything yet to shake that suspicion.

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