CheeselandSkies Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Yeah, HRRR has been consistent with some pretty stout cells within the line that'll move through this afternoon from IA into S. WI. More of a discrete mode out east where SPC has the 5% probs but not much in the way of updraft helicity being shown. It's been a "bright overcast" here in Madison most of the morning. Clouds are thin enough that the camera at the top of our 1,400' broadcast tower at work can see blue sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Imo the better threat looks to be shifting west due to ongoing mcs in Indiana. This will keep cloud debris persistent across Indiana and western Ohio. More broken cloud pattern in Iowa and Illinois so enough sun to promote instability. Hrrr is consistent on bringing a squall line into western IL around 5-6pm and has some discrete activity forming ahead of it. I think IL could be more in play for a tornado threat than further east. DVN also mentioned some wave in SW Iowa could help to back winds more later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 A little bit tricky today but I would agree that the eastern threat area may be lowering. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Eh the tornado threat tonight for the OH/IN/MI area is more based around the low really pumping in warm air and kicking storms off ahead of that cold front via a shortwave. That’s why there is more curvature in the hodographs than out in the western areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Full sunshine here now for about the last 15 minutes. That won't last long though going by visible. That line in central Iowa looks fairly robust with a lot of lightning output per RadarScope, although no warnings yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 19 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Eh the tornado threat tonight for the OH/IN/MI area is more based around the low really pumping in warm air and kicking storms off ahead of that cold front via a shortwave. That’s why there is more curvature in the hodographs than out in the western areas My question is if the more robust prefrontal development is delayed long enough farther east and if enough surface based instability is around after dark for an elevated threat. Perhaps, but a late arrival is my concern for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Skies have cleared, currently under full sunshine, car says 80 degrees currently. It’s humid outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Sun is out in DKB and temp is 81. Forecasted high was only 77 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 It's all about speed with that IN MCS getting out of the way for this afternoon and evening and how much clearing can take place. If we can get those better mid lapse rates moving east that would help as well. Could be an interesting evening across IL and In into Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxLaura Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Had on and off heavy showers this morning and currently is overcast in Columbus, Ohio. Temperature is around 72 degrees but with high humidity (95.1%) and relatively high dew points (70). West of us is definitely going to get the worst of it, especially around IN/OH border. 3km HRRR not looking too bad atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Quite a bit more sun here than I expected today. The Iowa line now has a warning on it for wind, moving at 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Cedar Rapids is now warned. There may be a bit of bowing out just west of CR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Lots of partial clearing across most of IL. SPC meso out for possible watch for eastern IA and nw IL. Hopefully this line is fast moving. Cedar Rapids has already had flooding issues. Cells beginning to appear in front of the line as well with a tor warning issued for north of Burlington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Was just going to post on that isolated cell ahead of the line in Iowa, TOR warned now. Some of those cells are beginning to get a curved look on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Just received my first severe wind in years..... probably 70 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 3 rotating cells in Iowa, 2 currently warmed (may be 3 soon)...interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Confirmed TOG near Columbus City/Columbus Junction in Louisa County IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Temps have really skyrocketed under the clear skies 84/70/88 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Winds are pretty veered attm in most of northern IL out ahead of this activity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 My garden really took a beating. One of my big hummer plants was partially broken and another was snapped off near the base. There may be more damage once I more closely examine the garden. Little bits of tree debris are strewn across the yard, with a few bigger pieces mixed in. A neighbor lost a 4.5" limb off one of his trees. I was expecting the severe wind to come from the west, but it oddly came more from the south, which was bad for my garden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Temps have really skyrocketed under the clear skies 84/70/88 currently. It’s legit warm and muggy in Kankakee County. Pretty much full sun here atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Nice little LEWP in Iowa with some embedded/leading supercells...but it'll whiff me to the south...again. All the severe weather this year has been either south of the state line or north in the forests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said: My garden really took a beating. One of my big hummer plants was partially broken and another was snapped off near the base. There may be more damage once I more closely examine the garden. Little bits of tree debris are strewn across the yard, with a few bigger pieces mixed in. A neighbor lost a 4.5" limb off one of his trees. I was expecting the severe wind to come from the west, but it oddly came more from the south, which was bad for my garden. This might be(and probably is) totally wrong, but the little mesovortex that tracked over Cedar Rapids might have changed the wind direction to southerly(towards it), especially for the area immediately to the south and east of where it tracked, you’d fall into that pool. Down in Iowa City, it was northwesterly, as expected. Probably about 50mph in magnitude here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Sun for the last few hours just south of Toledo. I really am quite concerned with how this is unfolding that we’re going to have a serious situation this evening. The way that shortwave is moving in, combined with CAPE at the surface of 2000 j/kg this has all the makings of a mini outbreak this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Severe Thunderstorm Warning ILC007-037-089-093-099-103-111-141-252200- /O.NEW.KLOT.SV.W.0068.180925T2101Z-180925T2200Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville Il 401 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2018 The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Kendall County in northeastern Illinois... Northern La Salle County in north central Illinois... Southeastern Ogle County in north central Illinois... Eastern Lee County in north central Illinois... De Kalb County in north central Illinois... Kane County in northeastern Illinois... Southern McHenry County in northeastern Illinois... Southern Boone County in north central Illinois... * Until 500 PM CDT * At 400 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Stillman Valley to near Wyanet, moving east at 55 mph. These are very dangerous storms. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely. * Locations impacted include... Aurora, Elgin, Carpentersville, St. Charles, Oswego, Algonquin, West Chicago, McHenry, Batavia, Woodstock, Geneva, Sycamore, Yorkville, Little Rock, Plano, Rochelle, Island Lake, Marengo, Sandwich and Mendota. Including the following interstates... I-39 between mile markers 62 and 112. I-88 between mile markers 67 and 119. I-90 between mile markers 23 and 53. This includes... Northern Illinois University, Sandwich Fairgrounds, Aurora University, Elgin Community College, Fermilab, IL Math and Science Academy, Kane County Cougars Ballpark, Mchenry County College, Mchenry County Fairgrounds, Moraine Hills State Park, Tri-County Fairgrounds, and Waubonsee Community College. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing widespread wind damage across across western Lee and Ogle Counties. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville Il 422 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2018 ILC007-037-089-093-099-103-111-141-252200- /O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-180925T2200Z/ Kendall IL-La Salle IL-Ogle IL-Lee IL-De Kalb IL-Kane IL-McHenry IL- Boone IL- 422 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2018 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR KENDALL...NORTHERN LA SALLE...SOUTHEASTERN OGLE...EASTERN LEE... DE KALB...KANE...SOUTHERN MCHENRY AND SOUTHERN BOONE COUNTIES... At 421 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Kingston to near La Moille, moving east at 60 mph. These are very dangerous storms. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely. Locations impacted include... Aurora, Elgin, Carpentersville, St. Charles, Oswego, Algonquin, West Chicago, McHenry, Batavia, Woodstock, Geneva, Sycamore, Yorkville, Little Rock, Plano, Rochelle, Island Lake, Marengo, Sandwich and Mendota. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing widespread wind damage across Lee and Ogle Counties. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant property damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Am becoming a bit concerned regarding cells ahead of the main line around east central IL as they move into IN. East central IN especially has good shear and helicity values of 200/250 m2/s2 at present. And the LLJ was forecast to increase this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Next three hours are going to be VERY interesting in regards to the evolution of both the squall line in IL and the scattered storms ahead of it. Most of Northern IN and OH have now had atleast an hour's worth of sun, resulting in a quick spike upward in temperatures and CAPE. East Central IN has the good shear/helicity values that @Indystorm just mentioned. Current thinking is an MD pops up downstream of the current watch here in the next hour, followed by a possible acceleration in development of scattered cells ahead of the front. If we do see any TOR action, I would watch the classic Kokomo, IN-Van Vert, OH corridor initially, following that general line into NW OH. If not, there is the main squall line directly on the front to keep an eye on as well. We shall see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Chicago city proper now under a warning for the next hour of 70 mph wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 57 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Sun for the last few hours just south of Toledo. I really am quite concerned with how this is unfolding that we’re going to have a serious situation this evening. The way that shortwave is moving in, combined with CAPE at the surface of 2000 j/kg this has all the makings of a mini outbreak this evening Better preemptively seek shelter now before it’s too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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