2018 Short to Medium Range Severe Thread

[Hoosier]

41 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

If I'm not mistaken, there wasn't a tornado warning on this storm which was only about 15 miles from radar.

Correct

[IWXwx]

EM sending photo of a funnel cloud to IWX from a small storm with a very small tornado warning.

INC183-080100-
/O.CON.KIWX.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180808T0100Z/
WHITLEY IN-
839 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
WHITLEY COUNTY...

AT 837 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 1 MILE NORTH OF COLUMBIA CITY, MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE 
         TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS 
         LIKELY.

THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL 
AREAS OF CENTRAL WHITLEY COUNTY.

[WxMatt21]

3 hours ago, IWXwx said:

EM sending photo of a funnel cloud to IWX from a small storm with a very small tornado warning.

INC183-080100-
/O.CON.KIWX.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180808T0100Z/
WHITLEY IN-
839 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
WHITLEY COUNTY...

AT 837 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 1 MILE NORTH OF COLUMBIA CITY, MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE 
         TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS 
         LIKELY.

THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL 
AREAS OF CENTRAL WHITLEY COUNTY.

The photos they shared on their FB page (Whitley co EMA) is at odds with their report, however. Just lots and lots of scud. Had many photos/videos sent in to the newsroom, too. Again, scud for days. 

At least there was something visual with the Whitley tor warning today. The Steuben one just simply didn't produce anything interesting. Not even a cool cloud formation!

[WxMatt21]

5 hours ago, IWXwx said:

If I'm not mistaken, there wasn't a tornado warning on this storm which was only about 15 miles from radar.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
219 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR AUGUST 6, 2018 TORNADO EVENT...

.WARSAW INDIANA TORNADO...

RATING:                 EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    90 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  4.1 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   50 YARDS
FATALITIES:             0
INJURIES:               0

START DATE: AUG 6 2018 
START TIME: 827 PM EDT 
START LOCATION: 1.1 MILE NORTHEAST DOWNTOWN WARSAW 
START LAT/LON: 41.2449N / -85.8290W

END DATE:               AUG 6 2018
END TIME:               834 PM EDT
END LOCATION:           5.2 MILES EAST WARSAW
END_LAT/LON:            41.2404N / -85.7514W

SURVEY_SUMMARY: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA
HAS CONFIRMED THAT A LOW END EF-1 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN WARSAW 
JUST SOUTHEAST OF PIKE LAKE AROUND 827 PM EDT AND THEN TRACKED 
RAPIDLY EASTWARD, LIFTING AROUND 834 PM EDT 5.2 MILES EAST OF 
DOWNTOWN WARSAW.

NUMEROUS TREES WERE DAMAGED INCLUDING UPROOTED TREES, SNAPPED
TRUNKS AND TOPPING. SEVERAL HOMES AND CARS WERE IMPACTED BY TREE 
DEBRIS. IN ADDITION SEVERAL POWER POLES WERE SNAPPED. MINOR 
ROOFING AND SIDING DAMAGE OCCURRED TO SOME HOMES AS WELL.

THE TORNADO OCCURRED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BROADER WIND DAMAGE
SWATH OF UP TO 250 YARDS. DAMAGE HERE WAS MUCH MORE SPORADIC WITH
ESTIMATED WINDS OF 60-65 MPH.

Correct, no tornado OR severe warning at the time. 

In IWX's defense, I was live on FB at the time and had velocity up and winds could not have been more than 30 mph from my estimation. Just nothing spectacular about the radar signatures at all. This tornado report shocked me, tbh 

[IWXwx]

6 hours ago, WxMatt21 said:

Correct, no tornado OR severe warning at the time. 

In IWX's defense, I was live on FB at the time and had velocity up and winds could not have been more than 30 mph from my estimation. Just nothing spectacular about the radar signatures at all. This tornado report shocked me, tbh 

Agree, as I was also checking velocity. It just surprises me that it was that close to radar and there was little discernible low level rotation depicted.

[snowlover2]

7 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Agree, as I was also checking velocity. It just surprises me that it was that close to radar and there was little discernible low level rotation depicted.

You would think being on the ground for 7 minutes and 4 miles that radar would have picked up on it at some point. That's just odd.

[snowlover2]

Looks like a couple tornado warnings in southern IN south of Indy.

[snowlover2]

Tornado warning in W IL east of McComb.

[Tim from Springfield (IL)]

3 hours ago, snowlover2 said:

Tornado warning in W IL east of McComb.

Barn damaged near Smithfield, IL (Fulton County, about a 1/2 hour east of Macomb).  Possible funnel cloud sightings near Fairview:

http://www.pjstar.com/news/20180816/possible-tornado-touchdown-reported-in-fulton-county

[IWXwx]

Weak sauce, but it did rotate

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1210 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     TORNADO          1 SE BADGER GROVE       40.57N 86.95W
08/15/2018                   WHITE              IN   NWS STORM SURVEY 

            NWS STORM SURVEY CONCLUDED WEAK EF-0 TORNADO 
            TOUCHED DOWN. CROP AND TREE DAMAGE WERE 
            NOTED ALONG WITH SOME SHINGLES BLOWN OFF A 
            HOUSE. A NEARBY BARN HAD PART OF ITS ROOF 
            RIPPED UP AND DETACHED. PATH LENGTH OF 0.26 
            MILES, MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH OF 22 YARDS. 

[Jim Martin]

Risk for severe weather tomorrow in the lower Great Lakes.

[CheeselandSkies]

Keeping an eye on potential for more flash flooding around southern WI today after some localized areas were hit hard on Friday. Severe hopes aren't high but we did get put back into the marginal risk on the 13Z.

Day 4-8 hints at increasing chances by Friday into next weekend.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[Hoosier]

Keeping an eye on the afternoon.  Gino laid out the pros and cons nicely.

[King James]

Keeping an eye on the afternoon.  Gino laid out the pros and cons nicely.

Peaks of sun here and there in Kankakee county the last 30 minutes or so


.

[Indystorm]

We actually had a nice, noisy garden variety t storm about 3 p.m. this afternoon.  I had forgotten what they looked like.  We'll see if enough instability mounts behind the warm front for anything else to fire later this evening.

[Hoosier]

Tornado in eastern Iowa.  

[snowlover2]

Tornado warning for Urbana OH which is northeast of Dayton. Funnel cloud was spotted. 

[Hoosier]

Watching cell in Newton county IN to the north of Kentland.

[CheeselandSkies]

Major flash flooding not far from me overnight. MKX suspects western Dane County set a WI record for 24-hour rainfall. Multiple water rescues and one confirmed fatality so far.

Fortunately for me my apartment building is on a bit of a rise, so our parking lot was clear and I was able to get out and go to work. I have to check when I get home but I wouldn't be surprised if there's a lot of water in the basement, though.

Some communities just to the west of Madison were evacuated due to flooding of Black Earth Creek, and remain cut off this morning due to washouts and bridge damage along US 14.

[Hoosier]

There were a couple EF0 tornadoes yesterday.  One in eastern IA and one in southern WI.

[Hoosier]

https://www.weather.gov/lot/20Aug2018_weaktornado

[Hoosier]

Hmm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
1147 AM CDT Sat Aug 25 2018

.UPDATE...
1145 AM CDT

As alluded to in short term AFD, have concern for a conditional
severe risk mid afternoon into this evening. Lack of synoptic
forcing with h5 height rises continues to call into question
convective coverage. However, with slowly eroding stratus (owing
to very rich boundary layer moisture), lower level convergence
could be aided by differential heating boundary(ies). In addition,
tough to see much if any on W/V imagery, but mesoanalysis does
show a weak h7 trough that will be over area into early evening
and short range guidance indicates weak 700 mb PVA spreading
across area. Once better insolation can occur, advection of
steeper lapse rates, 70s dew points and temps warming into 80s
will yield large instability up to 3000-4000 j/kg of MLCAPE. With
convective temp on 12z RAOBs in upper 80s to around 90, there
should be some minimal capping, so we`ll be needing the very weak
forcing and any boundary convergence for CI.

There is a decent signal on CAMs for CI occurring, however
location and coverage are widely varying and would think coverage
will be low for reasons above. Broad brushed low-mid chance PoPs
up to I-88 or so, though in reality focus will likely be smaller
than this. Turning back to the severe risk, conditionally
speaking, the environmental parameters look that they will be
favorable for isolated supercells given 30-35 kt of 0-6 km shear
and good turning of winds from south-southwest at surface to
southwest at 850 mb (~25 kt) to northwest at 500 mb. In presence
of large CAPE, including in 0-3 km layer, have concern that any
thunderstorm that can take advantage of this environment could get
quite intense and capable of localized more noteworthy severe.

SPC has reintroduced marginal risk south of I-88 and generally in
agreement with this, though again the actual hazards from intense
storms could be higher end than would normally be in a level 1
risk. With relatively weak southerly surface flow, would think
main threat from any isolated severe storm would be large to very
large hail and downburst winds. However, the very rich boundary
layer moisture will certainly yield very low LCL heights and there
will be high 0-3 km instability as mentioned. Both of these could
overcome weak sfc flow with otherwise decent low level shear for a
very isolated tornado risk. SPC did not include marginal/2% tor
probs in updated 1630z outlook, but this will be something to
watch. Finally, locally torrential rain will be likely in any
intense t-storms with very moist air mass and thus could also
yield a localized flash flooding risk. The strong-severe t-storm
and flooding risk should shift east with time and end by mid
evening or so.

Castro

 

[hlcater]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a tornado or two in IL today either. Cooking OFB stretched more or less along I88, along with a buttload of 0-3km CAPE, low LCLs and adequate mid level flow. Only thing that is questionable is the height rises that are occurring that will probably temper storm intensity and longevity.

Profiles along the OFB arent bad, more than sufficient for a tornado.

 

 

[Indystorm]

Although not severe I have had torrential rain the past 15 minutes here after occasional elevated showers and t storms this morning.  Illinois sure looks interesting for this evening.

[IWXwx]

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
943 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TORNADO          5 NE RUSHVILLE          39.65N 85.38W
08/25/2018                   RUSH               IN   EMERGENCY MNGR   

            POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN NEAR EAST COUNTY 
            ROAD 300 NORTH AND NORTH COUNTY ROAD 350 
            EAST. A CAMPER WAS THROWN INTO A HOUSE AND 
            TREES WERE TWISTED. ALSO, JUST W AND NW OF 
            THE HOUSE, EXTENSIVE CORN FIELD FLATTENING. 
            TIME IS APPROXIMATED FROM RADAR. 

 

 

 

[IWXwx]

That would leave a mark...

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
718 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0717 PM     HAIL             1 E GREENSBURG          39.34N 85.46W
08/25/2018  E2.75 INCH       DECATUR            IN   PUBLIC           

            LOCATED AT NORTH COUNTY ROAD 80 NE AND EAST 
            CENTRAL AVENUE...THE EASTERN CITY LIMITS OF 
            GREENSBURG. 

From Twitter:

 

[bowtie`]

Isolated stone size? I do not see any glass damage to any of those vehicles.

[IWXwx]

11 hours ago, bowtie` said:

Isolated stone size? I do not see any glass damage to any of those vehicles.

Not sure, but here is another photo submitted from Greensburg to IND via Twitter:

[OHweather]

Yeah, that IN cell had impressive hail for a while but was mainly over open farmland before it got close to Greensburg.  It was probably producing severe hail as far west as northern Shelby County and the signature was most impressive near or just before the time of those pictures. 

[Hoosier]

20 hours ago, IWXwx said:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
943 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TORNADO          5 NE RUSHVILLE          39.65N 85.38W
08/25/2018                   RUSH               IN   EMERGENCY MNGR   

            POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN NEAR EAST COUNTY 
            ROAD 300 NORTH AND NORTH COUNTY ROAD 350 
            EAST. A CAMPER WAS THROWN INTO A HOUSE AND 
            TREES WERE TWISTED. ALSO, JUST W AND NW OF 
            THE HOUSE, EXTENSIVE CORN FIELD FLATTENING. 
            TIME IS APPROXIMATED FROM RADAR. 

 

 

 

They ruled that as straight line wind damage.