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2018 Short to Medium Range Severe Thread


tornadohunter

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Second tornado reported, actually occurred earlier but report came in later. In Grant County, confirmed by video according to LSR. Also unwarned.

MKX (although this second report was in ARX's CWA) has been the king of false alarm tornado warnings in marginal situations. Of course the year they decide to stop doing it is when the storms actually produce.

Always something in 2018. The fact that these teeny thundershowers are producing brief spin-ups shows that the low-level shear is there, but they couldn't have held off 3-4 more hours for some heating to take place ahead of them?

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Tornado warning in southern Wisconsin counties.  Tornado touchdown in Blanchardville, west of Madison:

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN NORTHWESTERN GREEN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN SOUTHEASTERN IOWA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN 

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT.

AT 247 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER BLANCHARDVILLE, OR 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF DARLINGTON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

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LOT had this to say

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
317 PM CDT

Couple rounds of convection still on track late this afternoon
into the evening. As of 300 PM CST, upper low is noted on water
vapor imagery centered near DBQ while axis of greatest height
falls is beginning to overspread northern Illinois which has
helped to kick off scattered thunderstorms early this afternoon.
At the surface, broad and ill-defined warm front stretches from
near DBQ through DKB towards RZL in northwest Indiana. Within
this corridor, dew points have pooled into the low 70s and flow
becomes slightly backed with northward extent. Dew points combined
with temperatures in the low 80s is contributing to moderate
instability with MLCAPE in the 1000- 1500 range per recent RAP
analysis. Additional modest destabilization is expected as we
continue to thin some of the cloud cover that has been in place
much of the day. Increasing forcing for ascent and instability
will continue to support thunderstorm development over the next
several hours.

Shear appears to be a limiting factor with respect to a more
organized severe threat today. Mid level flow has been slightly
weaker than anticipated. Special 17Z raob from DVN indicated only
34kt of flow at 500mb and deep unidirectional flow is resulting in
0-6km shear of only 25kt. Lower level shear is a little better,
though still not impressive. 0-1km SRH does approach 100 m2/s2
near the low track and within the frontal zone over far north
central Illinois, though values quickly drop off farther
southeast. A couple storms so far today have shown weak rotation
and supercellular characteristics, so not completely out of the
woods despite the limiting factors. Any supercell storms that are
able to tap into the better low level helicity may be able to
produce a tornado.

Deubelbeiss
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From Manhattan Patch media

 

MANHATTAN, IL - A tornado touched down in Will County near Manhattan Tuesday evening. Reports on social media indicate it hit the ground in Wilton Center around 6:55 p.m. The National Weather Service issued a tornado warning for central Will County that has since expired.

Reports are that the tornado was headed in a northeast direction. Initial reports indicated the tornado was expected to be near Mokena around 7:10 p.m., Monee around 7:20 p.m. and Frankfort around 7:25 p.m.

Some in Manhattan have reported significant damage caused by the storm, including one case of windows shattering and at least one roof blowing off a home.

Take a look at eyewitnesses who shared their images of the tornado on Twitter.

Multiple tornado touchdowns, Wilton Center IL 655 pm @NWSChicago pic.twitter.com/YkM7EUKaHM
— Andrew Pritchard (@skydrama) June 2

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DVN cwa

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
838 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

ILC011-073-270200-
/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-180627T0200Z/
Henry IL-Bureau IL-
838 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL HENRY AND SOUTHWESTERN BUREAU COUNTIES...

At 838 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Kewanee, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Buda around 900 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Neponset and Johnson-Sauk Trail State Park.
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