snowlover2 Posted June 23, 2018 Share Posted June 23, 2018 26 minutes ago, IWXwx said: I was just about to post that survey. It looks like one of the expected funnels actually made it to the ground. lol at the estimated wind speed, barely reaching severe levels. EDIT: Of course, it happened in Van Wert County, the tornado magnet of Ohio I think Xenia might have something to say about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 Just now, snowlover2 said: I think Xenia might have something to say about that. You got me curious about that comparison. Of course we all know about Xenia's F 5. Greene County, OH is 415 Square miles and Van Wert County is 410 square miles, so they are comparable in size. According to the Tornado History Project stats, Van Wert County experienced 33 tornadoes from 1/1/1950-8/24/2016, while Greene County had 17 tornadoes from 2/25/1956-5/26/2015. So Van Wert Co. has averaged exactly 1 tornado every 2 years, while Greene Co. has averaged 1 tornado every 3.48 years. I will have to check the other counties in this part of the subforum when I have more time, but 1 every 2 years in a county of that size, especially in this part of the country, seems fairly impressive to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 3 hours ago, IWXwx said: You got me curious about that comparison. Of course we all know about Xenia's F 5. Greene County, OH is 415 Square miles and Van Wert County is 410 square miles, so they are comparable in size. According to the Tornado History Project stats, Van Wert County experienced 33 tornadoes from 1/1/1950-8/24/2016, while Greene County had 17 tornadoes from 2/25/1956-5/26/2015. So Van Wert Co. has averaged exactly 1 tornado every 2 years, while Greene Co. has averaged 1 tornado every 3.48 years. I will have to check the other counties in this part of the subforum when I have more time, but 1 every 2 years in a county of that size, especially in this part of the country, seems fairly impressive to me. I don't know how far away you want to look, but I can tell you from memory that Tippecanoe county exceeds that. It is a somewhat bigger county (about 500 square miles) but it has still had more per area when factoring that in. McLean county Illinois has had a ton. Much bigger county though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisBray Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 As of now, the NAM has quite a nice setup for Tuesday around the quad cities area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 It has been waffling back and forth (as has GFS) with instability and EHI values in the upper Midwest. 12Z was a big step in the right direction over 06Z. Seems to all hinge on what antecedent convection does, as per usual in this neck of the woods. Lapse rates are still kind of mediocre, though and in my experience that is more important than absolute CAPE values. Would like to see them be at least 7c/km throughout the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 The parameter space on the NAM is still impressive, more so than previous few runs while the nest has a different solution but given its at its end range I would toss that until we get closer. The potential Tuesday is probably the best we've seen across northern Illinois this year, as we should have plenty of flow with the upper low around...but a lot of ways for things to not work out. See if that makes it to Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 Afternoon MKX AFD one of the more ominous I have read in several years. It's not often they go into this much detail on tornado threats 3 days out. 18Z 3K another step in right direction, although the large convective complex it portrays is less than ideal for chasing, there are some nice UH streaks in there. FWIW, forecast surface low track (along the IA/MN border or just north) is reminiscent of previous surface patterns associated with southern Wisconsin tornado events. Quote Main question for Tuesday afternoon and evening is amount of instability that will return after morning convection moves off to the east. NAM coming into better agreement with ECMWF/GFS solution which show sfc low over southeast MN/IA border area moving east across central/southern WI during the evening. Low level jet reamplifies ahead of the surface low and focuses on northern IL/southern WI. Forecast soundings from both NAM and GFS show clouds clearing in the afternoon with a rapid increase in instability. SBCAPE values increase to 2-3K j/kg with CWASP values climbing to around 8 units. Clearing will allow warm front to surge northward into southern WI with pooling dewpoints in the mid 60s to around 70. 0-6km bulk shear increases to around 40 knots by 00Z with low level shear around 20kts. LCL around 500m all pointing to tornado potential in the late aftn/early evening with STP reach 3 near the IL border at 00Z. Slight Risk for severe definitely appropriate risk level for southern WI at this point, with possible upgrade in later periods towards the IL border not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 18z GFS looks to have a significant convective feedback problem... particularly noticeable early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
largetornado Posted June 25, 2018 Share Posted June 25, 2018 I think the slight risk for tomorrow needs to be expanded east. SE Indiana is looking very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 25, 2018 Share Posted June 25, 2018 The slight risk area in IA has been expanded southeast to cover the east half of MO and extreme west central/southwest IL for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 25, 2018 Share Posted June 25, 2018 Tuesday slight risk axed for WI and far northern IL. It's still 2018... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 25, 2018 Share Posted June 25, 2018 3 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: Tuesday slight risk axed for WI and far northern IL. It's still 2018... Wouldn't be surprised to see them put it back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 25, 2018 Share Posted June 25, 2018 29 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Wouldn't be surprised to see them put it back I could see that too, with a slight nudge east as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Michigan still pitching a shutout with tor reports along with Washington, Oregon, Arizona, Maryland, Delaware, Rhode Island, West Virginia, and Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 13 minutes ago, Stebo said: Michigan still pitching a shutout with tor reports along with Washington, Oregon, Arizona, Maryland, Delaware, Rhode Island, West Virginia, and Maine. You would almost think Michigan didn't have much of a tornado history if you look at the more recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: You would almost think Michigan didn't have much of a tornado history if you look at the more recent years. 1950 to 1977 crazy tornado history since then minor events outside of 1997 and 2010 or a couple isolated tors like Dexter. Also a couple of major events around 1900 as well as the first Palm Sunday event in 1920 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Check out the convective complex that dives into IL/IN/KY Thursday evening/Friday morning on the 00z NAM. Talk about impacting the low level wind fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Check out the convective complex that dives into IL/IN/KY Thursday evening/Friday morning on the 00z NAM. Talk about impacting the low level wind fields. Believe it or not 0z GFS appears to show something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Enhanced area added for central MO on new day 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 06Z 3K NAM pretty impressive with the UH southwest of the Chicago metro this evening. HRRR less so. Need these current storms to scoot out of here and let the sun do its thing. At least it's not a huge, cold outflow spewing MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Rain is mostly out of northern IL and southern WI, but clouds remain. Would like to see that patch of clearing in eastern Iowa expand into NW/NC IL and SW WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Apparently everyone else has already thrown in the towel on today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 50 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Apparently everyone else has already thrown in the towel on today? I have sun here with some thinning apparent on visible satellite. If today doesn't pan out in/around N IL, I don't think it will be because of the morning activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Some changes on the 1630z outlook. Slight risk was removed sort of in the middle so there are separate areas now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Also, the WI/IL/IA slight is now for tornadoes ONLY, with 5% (marginal for wind & hail) probs across the board. Don't know if I've ever seen that in a non-tropical case before. Suspect this has to do with the mediocre forecast lapse rates. Differential heating really apparent in obs with 78 at SQI (Sterling) compared to 71 at Rockford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 7 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Also, the WI/IL/IA slight is now for tornadoes ONLY, with 5% (marginal for wind & hail) probs across the board. Don't know if I've ever seen that in a non-tropical case before. Suspect this has to do with the mediocre forecast lapse rates. Differential heating really apparent in obs with 78 at SQI (Sterling) compared to 71 at Rockford. Setup is kinda sloppy overall (look at the various ongoing areas of rain/storms) so I'm not sure about this one. I think they made the right move by removing part of the slight risk but even the northern area seems a bit questionable, possibly because of it being 2018 lol. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 For once we actually have deep layer shear and it still manages to be sloppy, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Nice bowing line in west OH. Kinda surprised there are no warnings especially just north of Dayton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Lol brief tornado already reported in Lafayette County, WI just after 11:30. If confirmed that would be the 4th tornado in WI this year, and at least the second that's occurred without a tornado warning in effect, and I believe ALL of them have occurred without a tornado watch in effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 That line packed quite a punch. Kinda surprised there was no warning. Winds gusted easily over 50mph for several minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.