tornadohunter Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 With severe weather season just around the corner, i feel it would be good to have a thread to discuss short range events that dont deserve their own thread and medium range threats. 3/17 is looking interesting. CFS has hinted at this for a couple days and now the GFS is starting to see it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 MO, IL, IN look somewhat interesting if we want to grasp at straws. Models have been showing something in this time period for awhile but location varies and it is still far out. We need to get some good southerly flow and stop these nw flow regimes and New England noreasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadohunter Posted March 11, 2018 Author Share Posted March 11, 2018 The GFS continues to show potential severe for next weekend. GFS likes the southern half of our subforum on saturday. Sunday shows a threat for Illinois. Euro is somewhat onboard but seems to be some timing differences to be resolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Yes, the GFS strongly suggests that St. Patrick's Day weekend into early the following week should be watched closely. Of course the details on location and ceiling of a given day's event are changing wildly from run to run, but the general pattern has been consistent for several days now. In fact, it brings another system behind that one for late in week-2, suggesting this western trough might be good for more than one potent system. Would love to see a look like the 06Z run has for hour 180 through 324 valid for sometime in May, preferably my vacation week. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Yeah the pattern next weekend (specifically the 18th and 19th) is definitely beginning to catch my attention. Large warm sector being suggested with days of return flow and the potential for a seasonally strong trough to eject out of the SW. Plenty of ways for that to fall apart closer in though, but moisture looks to be available with quality mid level lapse rates (i.e. thermodynamics are generally a non-issue) assuming things come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 ERTAF(fwiw, which I think it’s actually pretty good) has that period marked for above average tornado activity as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Severe weather talk + higher dews + warmer weather = much happier than the crap winter's we've had lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Based on 18z GFS and model trends I would say the PAH CWA from southern IL over to EVV has a good chance of svr on Monday March 19th. Interesting change from the winter wx advisories/warnings in that area this Sunday March 11th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 New ERTAF prediction for the last two weeks of March shows above average possibilities for tornadoes in the lower and mid MS Valley on north to central IL and IN. Pattern change anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 hours ago, Indystorm said: New ERTAF prediction for the last two weeks of March shows above average possibilities for tornadoes in the lower and mid MS Valley on north to central IL and IN. Pattern change anyone? Sounds good to me. Bring on spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadohunter Posted March 12, 2018 Author Share Posted March 12, 2018 Really wish this NW flow would go away...very persistent...wants to keep threats south of i64.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Looks at recent GFS and especially Euro runs for this weekend -> Just can't get anything going whatsoever apparently. Doesn't help that we aren't getting a lot of help from the polar jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadohunter Posted March 13, 2018 Author Share Posted March 13, 2018 12Z GFS be like: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 If i have to wait for a sustained pattern shift I would rather have it in April/May/June when it's the height of tornado season and thermos are better to aid kinematics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 2 hours ago, Indystorm said: If i have to wait for a sustained pattern shift I would rather have it in April/May/June when it's the height of tornado season and thermos are better to aid kinematics. I do agree with this thought, but I don't want to see sustained strong -NAO, if it is closer to -1 that is one thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Yes, it's kinda weird to have the neg NAO as we enter March and have it in largely positive territory during most of met winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 The Euro/EPS for the last several runs has been indicating a large scale pattern that could result in a more widespread severe wx episode next week should it hold until then. Seems there is some potential for an unseasonably strong trough to eject at that time. The EPS mean last night had a sub-990 mb (yes, sub-990 mb) lee cyclone at 216 hours, which is pretty phenomenal for a 51 member mean that far out. Something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc0303 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 36 minutes ago, andyhb said: The Euro/EPS for the last several runs has been indicating a large scale pattern that could result in a more widespread severe wx episode next week should it hold until then. Seems there is some potential for an unseasonably strong trough to eject at that time. The EPS mean last night had a sub-990 mb (yes, sub-990 mb) lee cyclone at 216 hours, which is pretty phenomenal for a 51 member mean that far out. Something to keep an eye on. 100% bears watching. Large scale pattern is indicative of someone between the Rockies and GL/OV (including) getting nailed, it seems. Not sure it will all come together on Friday.. but to even speculate is just pointless. The EPS output is nothing short of ridiculous for a 50 member ensemble this far out. Whether it’s the plains or OV region that gets the worst of it (both?), time will tell.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Yeah, things look to ramp up sooner than I'd anticipated given the pattern we've been stuck in. Even yesterday's action kind of came out of left field for me, although we never even sniffed the warm sector here in WI. A week prior I'd have told you no chance of any severe anywhere east of the Rockies through at least April 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Op Euro dished out another powerhouse system for the 13th today. Deepened the surface low down to at least 970mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Well this is rather impressive, to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Can you hear it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Quincy is not impressed. Neither is Jeff. https://stormtrack.org/community/threads/2018-severe-wx-chase-season-discussion.29986/page-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 28 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Quincy is not impressed. Neither is Jeff. https://stormtrack.org/community/threads/2018-severe-wx-chase-season-discussion.29986/page-3 You’re gonna need a 60% hatched to impress Jeff nowadays, meanwhile here is a sounding off the euro.(I found it so don’t expect any more) It’s near sterling, IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: Quincy is not impressed. Neither is Jeff. https://stormtrack.org/community/threads/2018-severe-wx-chase-season-discussion.29986/page-3 Would be nice if I saw more than just statements about the Plains there. That's all I'm going to say about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 1 hour ago, andyhb said: Would be nice if I saw more than just statements about the Plains there. That's all I'm going to say about that. 100% this, far too much mention of GFS without mentioning the Euro in that thread, you can't just ignore the Euro as if it doesn't exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 12z Euro with a 977mb low near North Platte NE at 12z next Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 1 minute ago, snowlover2 said: 12z Euro with a 977mb low near North Platte NE at 12z next Friday. Too amplified though, trough matures too quickly and thus the next day looks like a mess with an occluding surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 I'd also watch if there's a lead system like the 12z Euro showed. That can really up the threat level for a following system by priming the moisture pump so to speak, especially if there's a favorable synoptic evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Nice to see deep moisture shouldn't be a worry. Just need the timing of the waves to play ball. Encouraging to see the Euro continue to beat the drum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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