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March 6 -7 Noreaster Obs Thread


ChescoWx

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3 minutes ago, RedSky said:

I have been shafted on every death band model predicted out here we suck at this lol

Light to moderate SN and 33F
 

When I retire I might move to a place that gets it's snow, not having to rely on banding.  (far, far north or at serious elevation, read 8,000+)  It looks like one heaving band in central Berks to finish us off before it all moves out.  Still light/moderate here too.  I don't know temp as my thermometer is useless during noon hours lol.  (shows 35 but I know it's just a little sun hitting it)

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17 minutes ago, yak said:

Kudos to the I95 crowd.  That certainly seems to be the trend over the past few years.  Is that the result of more Miller B storms or something more significant climatological?

The heaviest band seemed to have parked over the I95 corridor (+/- 25 miles on either side) once it moved in and has been like that for a couple hours - even with the western fringes pulling in towards the east.  I usually see the bands park west of here and we end up with subsidence holes with occasional bands moving through. So if anything for a March storm, this is pretty amazing given it is happening during the day as well.  I still have stuff sloughing off my car as it piles up, so it is definitely moisture laden - definitely < 10:1.

 

 

radar9-03072018.png

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If anyone ever told me there was a rapidly deepening cyclone coastal hugger by Atlantic city and i would have the flurries currently falling i wouldn't have believed it.

That intense area of convection is pulling in the moisture from the west like the wall of a hurricane and drying us out, i have seen this over and over in recent years.

 

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11 minutes ago, yak said:

Kudos to the I95 crowd.  That certainly seems to be the trend over the past few years.  Is that the result of more Miller B storms or something more significant climatological?

Well with Miller B storms, the transfer typically wants to end up riding along the Gulf Stream due to the baroclinic zone favorability. This is typically too far east for most here. Also, most Miller B's transfer too late and too far north (January 2015) so they typically only impact NYC on north. This storm was a bit closer to the coast, but the circulation was much tighter and the 250mb Jet didn't expand to the west as much as you may see in other storms so the precip shield was much more compact. Have we seen more Miller B's in recent memory? Perhaps, but it's nothing unusual. If anything the warmer waters off the coast have simply provided more fuel for the Miller B's to intensify.

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1 minute ago, RedSky said:

If anyone ever told me there was a rapidly deepening cyclone coastal hugger by Atlantic city and i would have the flurries currently falling i wouldn't have believed it.

 

Crazy I tell ya, I had a bad feeling this morning when I saw the radar. Wonder when Mt Holly will lower my totals my point and click still 6-10 thats going to bust for sure

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February 2016 miller bust did the same thing with almost the exact same timing got up in the morning for well modeled death band and all us NW got shafted so certainly not the first time. Huge convection east with that one. Funny that one ALSO was a forecast of 12-16" i ended with 5" 

 

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10 minutes ago, shemATC said:

Just finished a first round of shoveling.  Only about 2.5" on the walk and drive, but that stuff is HEAVY.  What's the lowest ratio of snow can be, because I think we're close.  Also definitely over 1"/hr rates based on how much was getting recovered as I went along.
 

The late Feb 2010 storm dropped fat globs of mashed potato consistency in the Maine foothills, only 4:1 as it fell, no RA nor IP.  The stuff would not stay even on large horizontal branches, but would splatter off onto the ground.  Total 10.7" with 2.68" LE (topped by 1.14" of 34-35° rain while 350 miles to my SW, Central Park was getting bombed with 21" snow and mid 20s.

The grandkids in south-central Gloucester County love snow - hope they're getting more than just slop from this one.

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6 minutes ago, RedSky said:

If anyone ever told me there was a rapidly deepening cyclone coastal hugger by Atlantic city and i would have the flurries currently falling i wouldn't have believed it.

 

I looked at your location. Man, that heavy band is just to your south. I got lucky this time in southern Hunterdon county.

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3 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Up to 2.5" on the storm now. More thunder and lightning in the last minute. Theres been more thunder and lightning in this storm than last summer :lmao: 2" in 2 hours of straight concrete.

WOW!  I have to be at 7-8" at this point and I am like 15-20 mins up the road from you

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4 minutes ago, wkd said:

I looked at your location. Man, that heavy band is just to your south. I got lucky this time in southern Hunterdon county.

I literally have flurries and the yellow echoes are 7 miles away

The rain snow line isn't even 10 miles east of I95! what do i have to do to get heavy snow lol

 

 

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1 minute ago, hazwoper said:

nope, you will likely be cutting off in next hour or so based on HRRR, mesos and radar

Then what is this all about ?

This Afternoon
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 34. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible.
Tonight
Snow likely, mainly before 11pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. West wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
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