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March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm Observations


Rtd208

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I am in Melville LI-west of route 110 and it’s 25 degrees and raining now, snow mixing in.   We had snow early this am, school was cx’ed.  

I don’t have the meteorological knowledge of many on this board, so my thoughts are based on gut vs scientific reasoning; but I have witnessed this movie before.   I would be shocked if we wind up with more than 4 inches here.   

 

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44 minutes ago, North and West said:


Think it will get colder here? I’ve been steady at 32 and every surface, sans treated main roads, are covered.


.

I've been at 30. Main roads are wet. Snowfall intensity noticeably increased around 9:30. I fully expect road conditions to deteriorate this afternoon, as our more seasoned posters have held all along. 

I don't anticipate getting much "colder" than the upper 20s. Ground temps will plummet as the rate of snowfall increases. 

The white pines are bogging down already. I expect to lose some larger branches. 

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2 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

You’re not crazy, stupid or inexperienced. There isnt much there at this point.

Supposed to develop. Take from that what you want.

If you read situations well, understand that this forum, experts included, want it to work. There is a slight bias for that “want.” Right now, looking at what the radar, the temps, and precip intensity, you are right to be worried if you wanted a huge snowstorm.

Just like in the last storm when I made the bold prediction that NYC would get nothing looking at the rain/snow line. Sometimes you have to look at what is happening...not what was supposed to happen.

Certainly right about the overwhelming bias. I am actually in the other camp, lol.  I used to be a snow freak, and still have a level of excitement about events like this on one level, however, at my stage (56) I'm more concerned about how these storms impact me and my family's life as well as the after effects. 

So no, I am not biased like most of the others here and try to focus more on those posters who tend to be more objective about these things.  I have been following since the ne.weather days so I am familiar with most of the long time posters, their expertise and "wants".  And still trying to learn.

Thanks for being one of the voices of reason!

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4 hours ago, BxEngine said:

As concerned as yesterday when you declared the threat over?

starting to hehe.  Radar was building up nicely but it keeps dissipating before just as it reaches staten island across to south shore of LI.  very odd guys...Was supposed to already have at least 2 inches on the ground and so far nothing. Those bands that will come in will have to work extra hard if we're expected to get that foot.

LIC is 37 degrees, winds gusting to 27mph out of the Southeast

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6 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

I am in Melville LI-west of route 110 and it’s 25 degrees and raining now, snow mixing in.   We had snow early this am, school was cx’ed.  

I don’t have the meteorological knowledge of many on this board, so my thoughts are based on gut vs scientific reasoning; but I have witnessed this movie before.   I would be shocked if we wind up with more than 4 inches here.   

 

25*???? really? i don't think so...38* here in Eastport/KFOK area..not expecting much snow out 

this way...winds are EASTERLY..NG if u like snow..

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14 minutes ago, jr461 said:

OK, so this is going happen pretty quickly (as opposed to those storms that develop/mature further south and move north with precip already having blossomed).  Thanks

Yes, the storm should develop fairly quickly. If the radar doesn't improve significantly by 18z, that could be an indication of a lesser event.

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12 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

If youre going to call out experts for having a bias, prepare to back that statement up with facts and scientific data. Thanks. 

Nothing personal. just and obseravtion.

 

Reread 13-17 of the last storm and see how it reads several days out.

 

Again, peace offering. We all want snow (or most of us do). It is just and observation

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34 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I know but we will be taken to the woodshed for suggesting it so.....until it becomes obvious we'll go with the experts, who are still saying lots of snow. I don't know as much as a lot of the folks around here, and I admit it. 

temp up to 37.2 here with plain rain - radar shows snow but the lower levels are way to warm with the ocean flow - this is already a bust and there was not reason to close the schools today - that was all caused by our newbie Gov calling a state of emergency starting at 8 PM last night - why so early ?

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1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

temp up to 37.2 here with plain rain - radar shows snow but the lower levels are way to warm with the ocean flow - this is already a bust and there was not reason to close the schools today - that was all caused by our newbie Gov calling a state of emergency starting at 8 PM last night - why so early ?

Closed here too better to be safe than sorry

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2 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Closed here too better to be safe than sorry

that's true - and not the first time there was a forecasting mistake in a storm - this whole setup with the lack of truly cold air and depending on dynamics makes forecasting really difficult - anyones guess whats going to actually happen the rest of the way

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9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

temp up to 37.2 here with plain rain - radar shows snow but the lower levels are way to warm with the ocean flow - this is already a bust and there was not reason to close the schools today - that was all caused by our newbie Gov calling a state of emergency starting at 8 PM last night - why so early ?

I'd give it a couple more hours though, radar is really starting to explode in SE NJ. 

A few years ago one of the most dynamically intense snowfalls occurred in under 2 hrs with over 6" of snow. 

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