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March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm Observations


Rtd208

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3 minutes ago, Parterre said:

I'm not the most informed person about these things. What dynamics are these?

The lift from the deepening storm. The column will cool as it becomes saturated. The area of warm air aloft is relatively small. Based on the latest soundings, it won't take much to cool it sufficiently for the precipitation to transition to snow.

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4 minutes ago, Parterre said:

I'm not the most informed person about these things. What dynamics are these?

Basically that it will get colder and snow harder. Still waiting. Forecasters still saying it will happen, but it's getting near mid morning and nothing to show for it out here. Some light wet snow. 

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Just now, donsutherland1 said:

The lift from the deepening storm. The column will cool as it becomes saturated. The area of warm air aloft is relatively small. Based on the latest soundings, it won't take much to cool it sufficiently for the precipitation to transition to snow.

Yeah Don the pros are still convinced too, but a lot of us are not liking this so far. What was the progged start time? NWS said don't go out after 7 am on one update, so that's already been blown. When she would we start to see an actual snowstorm out of this?

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2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Yeah Don the pros are still convinced too, but a lot of us are not liking this so far. What was the progged start time? NWS said don't go out after 7 am on one update, so that's already been blown. When she would we start to see an actual snowstorm out of this?

Lift already taking place in areas,,,ps winds are out of the North at least by me,,that is much better THAN OUT OF THE east

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2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Yeah Don the pros are still convinced too, but a lot of us are not liking this so far. What was the progged start time? NWS said don't go out after 7 am on one update, so that's already been blown. When she would we start to see an actual snowstorm out of this?

You have been on the board more than anyone for the past few days if you don't know that the real show doesn't start til the coastal takes over and that this is what's called the overruning and was discussed AD NAUSEUM that this wasn't the main show, not to worry etc I'm just not sure what to say to you

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6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Yeah Don the pros are still convinced too, but a lot of us are not liking this so far. What was the progged start time? NWS said don't go out after 7 am on one update, so that's already been blown. When she would we start to see an actual snowstorm out of this?

Best guess: Between 15z and 17z.

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2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Flizziling. Can't freak out over WAA precip dissapaiting people. It's irrelevant when 4"/hr thunderstorms are incoming this afternoon . 

Exactly.. This WAA precip was well modeled and had a general 1-3" for the interior before the main show. You guys down in NYC should see a good 8-12". Nassau prob 6-10", Suffolk prob 2-6" more W less E

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Important point to keep in mind.  While many are focusing on the snow/liquid ratio, remember, that only affects snow depth, which to me is more of an "elegance" issue.  With regard to impact on things like snow removal (force/energy needed for it) and the weight of the snow on trees and roofs, the same mass of snow falls regardless of the ratio, which is why I like using the 10:1 maps, as the conversion to mass is simple (you have no idea of mass with Kuchera).  Same thing was true on 3/14 last year with the sleet - the mass of frozen precip was exactly as forecast - just didn't look as pretty, but was just as impactful.  

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1 minute ago, snywx said:

Exactly.. This WAA precip was well modeled and had a general 1-3" for the interior before the main show. You guys down in NYC should see a good 8-12". Nassau prob 6-10", Suffolk prob 2-6" more W less E

Thanks for the pep talk. And for not losing patience with us. Some of us are just regular folks. I'm taking a lot of heat from the locals. Wife wants to go into work. Not everyone has the luxury of understanding bosses. 

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1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Important point to keep in mind.  While many are focusing on the snow/liquid ratio, remember, that only affects snow depth, which to me is more of an "elegance" issue.  With regard to impact on things like snow removal (force/energy needed for it) and the weight of the snow on trees and roofs, the same mass of snow falls regardless of the ratio, which is why I like using the 10:1 maps, as the conversion to mass is simple (you have no idea of mass with Kuchera).  Same thing was true on 3/14 last year with the sleet - the mass of frozen precip was exactly as forecast - just didn't look as pretty, but was just as impactful.  

Excellent point RU.Thanks for that.

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