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March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm Observations


Rtd208

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1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Agree 100%. There was one run of the HRRR this morning that cut totals back to around 7 in the city. 

People were dumping on you as well for reporting the obvious. I feel your pain. I guess we should only report if we are getting pummeled.

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1 minute ago, snywx said:

subsidence brother.. Anyone directly east of that band was skunked. Happens in all the big ones you just never know where till it actually sets up

Yeah. I got it to the east of me Jan 4, and to the west of me today. But this kinda snow I can live without. The section I tried to snowblow is sitting in a pile and can't be budged. Superman maybe could do it. Mother nature will have to clean it.

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11 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Thank you JM. People respect you here so you won't get the grief I got for saying the same thing was unfolding over here. We got about 4.5 but when they are telling you to expect 12+ when your own eyes tell you it isn't possible any longer because it just isn't unfolding that way you shouldn't be criticized. People kept telling me stop whining because I was reporting that the storm was underperforming here. I can't report on what it did ten miles to my west because I wasn't there for chrissakes. I could see by about 2 pm that it wasn't gonna happen here. In the end I'm glad because the 4-5 of cement we got is a pain in the neck and causing all sorts of mayhem.

If you put it as “this is going to be a bust” before the event is clearly over, you’ll get flak for it here and those posts will probably get deleted. They’re annoying to read. I stopped following things for a while so I don’t know the specific posts. But I get that it’s annoying. I’m definitely not happy with this event but we can’t change it. 

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000
NOUS41 KOKX 080307
PNSOKX
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-081507-

Public Information Statement
Spotter Reports
National Weather Service New York NY
1007 PM EST Wed Mar 07 2018

The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 4
hours for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation
is extended to highway departments, cooperative observers, Skywarn
spotters and media for these reports. This summary also is available
on our home page at weather.gov/nyc

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...Fairfield County...
   Newtown               19.6   815 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   New Fairfield         17.5   800 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   4 N Ridgefield        17.0   900 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Ridgefield            17.0   915 PM  3/07  Social Media
   Fairfield             10.0   730 PM  3/07  CoCoRaHS
   Danbury                8.5   915 PM  3/07  Social Media
   Weston                 7.0   700 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Stratford              7.0   900 PM  3/07  Co-Op Observer
   Bridgeport Airport     5.1   650 PM  3/07  CO-OP Observer

...New Haven County...
   Wolcott               16.0   945 PM  3/07  Social Media
   North Haven           13.5   855 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Branford              12.5   905 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Cheshire              10.0   820 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Seymour                9.0   950 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Milford                7.7   830 PM  3/07  Public
   New Haven              7.5   730 PM  3/07  Public
   North Guilford         6.0   718 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Wallingford            5.0   630 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   West Haven             4.5   836 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter

...New London County...
   Ledyard Center         4.1   900 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter

NEW JERSEY

...Bergen County...
   Allendale             17.5   915 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Mahwah                16.8   618 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Oradell                8.1   850 PM  3/07  Public
   Ramsey                 8.0   700 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Ridgewood              8.0   900 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Elmwood Park           7.8   700 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Englewood              7.1   810 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Rivervale              5.9   700 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   River Vale             5.9   700 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   East Rutherford        5.1   930 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter

...Essex County...
   North Caldwell        23.0   845 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Roseland              19.7   900 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Caldwell              17.8   800 PM  3/07  Public
   Cedar Grove           16.8   950 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   West Orange           13.0   800 PM  3/07  Public
   Essex Fells            7.5   830 PM  3/07  CoCoRaHS

...Hudson County...
   Kearny                 6.0   930 PM  3/07  Public
   Harrison               6.0   715 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Jersey City            5.4   951 PM  3/07  Broadcast Media
   Hoboken                4.0   900 PM  3/07  Public

...Passaic County...
   2 SSW Franklin Lakes  24.0   700 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Hewitt                22.0   900 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Wanaque               21.0   839 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   West Milford          20.5   800 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Ringwood              19.7   930 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Wayne                 19.5   843 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Little Falls          11.7   830 PM  3/07  CoCoRaHS

...Union County...
   Newark Airport         4.4   650 PM  3/07  FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

NEW YORK

...Bronx County...
   Morris Park            2.5   730 PM  3/07  Public
   Parkchester            2.3   800 PM  3/07  Co-Op Observer

...Kings County...
   Sheepshead Bay         4.1   900 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Flatlands              3.5   915 PM  3/07  Public
   Midwood                3.0   900 PM  3/07  Public
   East Flatbush          1.5   700 PM  3/07  CoCoRaHS

...Nassau County...
   Roslyn                 6.0   945 PM  3/07  Public
   Glen Head              6.0   930 PM  3/07  Public
   Plainview              5.5   830 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Garden City            5.0   945 PM  3/07  Public
   East Meadow            4.3   700 PM  3/07  Public
   Wantagh                4.2   935 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Massapequa             3.3   715 PM  3/07  CoCoRaHS
   Oyster Bay             2.5   620 PM  3/07  Fire Dept/Rescue

...New York County...
   Central Park           2.9   950 PM  3/07  Park Conservancy

...Orange County...
   Monroe                26.0   800 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Highland Mills        21.2   700 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Orange Lake           20.1   745 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Gardnertown           17.8   853 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Goshen                17.7   830 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Warwick               16.0   845 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Vails Gate            14.5   645 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   1 S Slate Hill        13.0   700 PM  3/07  Fire Dept/Rescue
   Otisville             13.0   925 PM  3/07  Public
   Mount Hope            12.8   700 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Westtown              11.5   745 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter

...Putnam County...
   Baldwin Place         15.0   800 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Putnam Valley         12.2   630 PM  3/07  Broadcast Media
   Mahopac               12.1   621 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter

...Queens County...
   Middle Village         3.5   900 PM  3/07  CoCoRaHS
   Whitestone             3.0   700 PM  3/07  Public
   NYC/JFK Airport        2.6   650 PM  3/07  FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
   1 WSW Walden Terrace   2.0   700 PM  3/07  CoCoRaHS
   NYC/LaGuardia Airpor   1.7   650 PM  3/07  FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

...Richmond County...
   Oakwood Heights Stat   3.8   657 PM  3/07  CoCoRaHS

...Rockland County...
   Sloatsburg            26.0   840 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Chestnut Ridge        17.5   650 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Stony Point           11.2   800 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   New City               8.0   612 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter

...Suffolk County...
   Saint James            7.8   930 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Commack                7.4   810 PM  3/07  Public
   2 N Smithtown          7.3   650 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Mount Sinai            6.0   640 PM  3/07  NWS Employee
   Islip Airport          5.8   650 PM  3/07  FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
   Shoreham               5.8   650 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Huntington Station     5.7   805 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Centerport             5.4   830 PM  3/07  Co-Op Observer
   Smithtown              5.0   700 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Upton                  4.2   900 PM  3/07  NWS Office
   Patchogue              4.1   750 PM  3/07  NWS Employee
   Riverhead              3.7   700 PM  3/07  NWS Employee
   Ronkonkoma             3.6   945 PM  3/07  CoCoRaHS
   Mattituck              2.9   800 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   Sayville               2.2   640 PM  3/07  NWS Employee

...Westchester County...
   Katonah               13.5   800 PM  3/07  Public
   Armonk                13.5   850 PM  3/07  Fire Dept/Rescue
   Mount Kisco           11.0   835 PM  3/07  Public
   Montrose               9.5   900 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter
   White Plains           5.8   800 PM  3/07  Trained Spotter

&&

 

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

If you put it as “this is going to be a bust” before the event is clearly over, you’ll get flak for it here and those posts will probably get deleted. They’re annoying to read. I stopped following things for a while so I don’t know the specific posts. But I get that it’s annoying. I’m definitely not happy with this event but we can’t change it. 

I'm talking about real time observations that it isn't doing what people expect. I always say we'll see what happens. I saw you do it yourself and I saw some people give you noise about it. That's unbecoming and frankly, not worth spending a lot of my time on. I don't check to see if they delete posts really who cares. But there is no excuse for the level of rudeness around here from some people. I was a bit surprised that you even got some of it, though a lot less than me and a few others. 

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13 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I'm talking about real time observations that it isn't doing what people expect. I always say we'll see what happens. I saw you do it yourself and I saw some people give you noise about it. That's unbecoming and frankly, not worth spending a lot of my time on. I don't check to see if they delete posts really who cares. But there is no excuse for the level of rudeness around here from some people. I was a bit surprised that you even got some of it, though a lot less than me and a few others. 

It takes a lot for me to jump fully on board for a storm and I go over what can go wrong. People take that as me being a downer, whatever. My original idea was this would be better north and west of the city because of the possibility of a west track. It turned out that the outcome was right but not because it hugged the coast. The low did trend SE last minute and mid level warm air didn’t make it this far north. What killed it for you and I was dry air which is much harder to predict until the storm is underway. I had a warning out for 6-10” and statements for 2-3” per hour snow which never materialized. The snow was much more banded than what usually happens, and in that case there are big winners and losers. UHI was a factor in Manhattan for sure and maybe at the airports, but that’s not what killed it where you and I are, or snow map fantasies. It was lousy rates. 

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7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It takes a lot for me to jump fully on board for a storm and I go over what can go wrong. People take that as me being a downer, whatever. My original idea was this would be better north and west of the city because of the possibility of a west track. It turned out that the outcome was right but not because it hugged the coast. The low did trend SE last minute and mid level warm air didn’t make it this far north. What killed it for you and I was dry air which is much harder to predict until the storm is underway. I had a warning out for 6-10” and statements for 2-3” per hour snow which never materialized. The snow was much more banded than what usually happens, and in that case there are big winners and losers. UHI was a factor in Manhattan for sure and maybe at the airports, but that’s not what killed it where you and I are, or snow map fantasies. It was lousy rates. 

Thanks for the explanation. We had bursts of good rates but they didn't last long. I was a lot closer to the fire than you though. Maybe that's why people didn't believe me.

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30 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If you put it as “this is going to be a bust” before the event is clearly over, you’ll get flak for it here and those posts will probably get deleted. They’re annoying to read. I stopped following things for a while so I don’t know the specific posts. But I get that it’s annoying. I’m definitely not happy with this event but we can’t change it. 

Funny thing was it was snowing pretty hard (and has been this evening too).  I just think it happened at the wrong time of the day had it been snowing hard straight through from last night we would have accumulated more.  Parts of Long Island got close to double digits anyway.

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15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It takes a lot for me to jump fully on board for a storm and I go over what can go wrong. People take that as me being a downer, whatever. My original idea was this would be better north and west of the city because of the possibility of a west track. It turned out that the outcome was right but not because it hugged the coast. The low did trend SE last minute and mid level warm air didn’t make it this far north. What killed it for you and I was dry air which is much harder to predict until the storm is underway. I had a warning out for 6-10” and statements for 2-3” per hour snow which never materialized. The snow was much more banded than what usually happens, and in that case there are big winners and losers. UHI was a factor in Manhattan for sure and maybe at the airports, but that’s not what killed it where you and I are, or snow map fantasies. It was lousy rates. 

I'm going back to what I said before about needing true arctic air to get double digit snowfall totals beyond the first couple of days of March.  There's a reason that it hasn't happened in NYC since 3/93 and 3/60.  For us and for the city anyway since we live in an urban environment.

 

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Just now, Paragon said:

I'm going back to what I said before about needing true arctic air to get double digit snowfall totals beyond the first couple of days of March.  There's a reason that it hasn't happened in NYC since 3/93 and 3/60.  For us and for the city anyway since we live in an urban environment.

 

There would be double digits here for sure if the same band that sat over NJ sat over us. We could never have consistent good snow rates today, which melted what did fall in the good periods and also allowed the temps to warm up. The cellular stuff in the WAA batch didn’t do much here and even in heavier echos, it seemed like the snow was pretty light. Anyway, I’ve dissected this enough. Congrats to those who got dumped on. 

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

There would be double digits here for sure if the same band that sat over NJ sat over us. We could never have consistent good snow rates today, which melted what did fall in the good periods and also allowed the temps to warm up. The cellular stuff in the WAA batch didn’t do much here and even in heavier echos, it seemed like the snow was pretty light. Anyway, I’ve dissected this enough. Congrats to those who got dumped on. 

JM I'm wondering if where we live has something to do with how the bands set up.  I honestly can't remember a single storm where that kind of band set up over us, except when we were in an el nino and had the changeover line very close to us (like the unmentionable Jan 2016 that you missed.)  Does regional geography determine banding? I know in the summer we often miss out on the best storms because of our geography too.

BTW Jan 2016 is the last time NYC had 10.0 inches or more of snow from a single storm.  

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It takes a lot for me to jump fully on board for a storm and I go over what can go wrong. People take that as me being a downer, whatever. My original idea was this would be better north and west of the city because of the possibility of a west track. It turned out that the outcome was right but not because it hugged the coast. The low did trend SE last minute and mid level warm air didn’t make it this far north. What killed it for you and I was dry air which is much harder to predict until the storm is underway. I had a warning out for 6-10” and statements for 2-3” per hour snow which never materialized. The snow was much more banded than what usually happens, and in that case there are big winners and losers. UHI was a factor in Manhattan for sure and maybe at the airports, but that’s not what killed it where you and I are, or snow map fantasies. It was lousy rates. 
Yeah... you tend to be conservative which, this time of year especially, is a wise approach. I think it was partly that the SLP hugged the coast more (about AC) though it did not quite touch land. When the SLP around bm took over, the area was able to get into some better snows. In fact, it kind of missed you because the occluding front allowed the dry air to penetrate north into long Island. From around Huntington and east on the north shore, and for Eastern Suffolk, east of 111 about, the dry air of the DCB never quite took over as the SLP near bm began to take over, thus allowing the CCB to develop. Unfortunately, you were in between both of these and was in the screw zone. Had the main SLP been further south, around OC MD, then all of long Island would have stayed in the heavy snow as the dry air was muted in S CT as the DCB did not quite penetrate that far up. Then when the CCB developed, the east end stayed in the precip as did s CT and the rest of LI filled back in.
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3 minutes ago, USCG RS said:
28 minutes ago, jm1220 said:
It takes a lot for me to jump fully on board for a storm and I go over what can go wrong. People take that as me being a downer, whatever. My original idea was this would be better north and west of the city because of the possibility of a west track. It turned out that the outcome was right but not because it hugged the coast. The low did trend SE last minute and mid level warm air didn’t make it this far north. What killed it for you and I was dry air which is much harder to predict until the storm is underway. I had a warning out for 6-10” and statements for 2-3” per hour snow which never materialized. The snow was much more banded than what usually happens, and in that case there are big winners and losers. UHI was a factor in Manhattan for sure and maybe at the airports, but that’s not what killed it where you and I are, or snow map fantasies. It was lousy rates. 

Yeah... you tend to be conservative which, this time of year especially, is a wise approach. I think it was partly that the SLP hugged the coast more (about AC) though it did not quite touch land. When the SLP around bm took over, the area was able to get into some better snows. In fact, it kind of missed you because the occluding front allowed the dry air to penetrate north into long Island. From around Huntington and east on the north shore, and for Eastern Suffolk, east of 111 about, the dry air of the DCB never quite took over as the SLP near bm began to take over, thus allowing the CCB to develop. Unfortunately, you were in between both of these and was in the screw zone. Had the main SLP been further south, around OC MD, then all of long Island would have stayed in the heavy snow as the dry air was muted in S CT as the DCB did not quite penetrate that far up. Then when the CCB developed, the east end stayed in the precip as did s CT and the rest of LI filled back in.

Yep, all good points. This storm was somewhat of a late bloomer. 

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8 minutes ago, USCG RS said:
32 minutes ago, jm1220 said:
It takes a lot for me to jump fully on board for a storm and I go over what can go wrong. People take that as me being a downer, whatever. My original idea was this would be better north and west of the city because of the possibility of a west track. It turned out that the outcome was right but not because it hugged the coast. The low did trend SE last minute and mid level warm air didn’t make it this far north. What killed it for you and I was dry air which is much harder to predict until the storm is underway. I had a warning out for 6-10” and statements for 2-3” per hour snow which never materialized. The snow was much more banded than what usually happens, and in that case there are big winners and losers. UHI was a factor in Manhattan for sure and maybe at the airports, but that’s not what killed it where you and I are, or snow map fantasies. It was lousy rates. 

Yeah... you tend to be conservative which, this time of year especially, is a wise approach. I think it was partly that the SLP hugged the coast more (about AC) though it did not quite touch land. When the SLP around bm took over, the area was able to get into some better snows. In fact, it kind of missed you because the occluding front allowed the dry air to penetrate north into long Island. From around Huntington and east on the north shore, and for Eastern Suffolk, east of 111 about, the dry air of the DCB never quite took over as the SLP near bm began to take over, thus allowing the CCB to develop. Unfortunately, you were in between both of these and was in the screw zone. Had the main SLP been further south, around OC MD, then all of long Island would have stayed in the heavy snow as the dry air was muted in S CT as the DCB did not quite penetrate that far up. Then when the CCB developed, the east end stayed in the precip as did s CT and the rest of LI filled back in.

The area that seemed to be in the screw zone started just west of the Hudson, Newark Bay and the Arthur Kill and moved east. The bands were minutes from some of us.

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In addition the cold air mass was stale, so temperatures were marginal.  NYC did get over an inch of LWC and got only 2.5”.  If the storm came in 8 hrs earlier it would of been below freezing during the event.  Also the south winds did not help much, the high was in bad position.  This and the mega band on NJ did the city in.  The cold air was aloft but the surface was just too warm as it was 36 dew point 33 at 10am, unless you have S or even only S+ not going to get much.  The storm acted more like an late March storm as it was very banded.

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1 minute ago, Mitchel Volk said:

In addition the cold air mass was stale, so temperatures were marginal.  NYC did get over an inch of LWC and got only 2.5”.  If the storm came in 8 hrs earlier it would of Ben below freezing during the event.  Also the south winds did not help much, the high was in bad position.  This and the mega band on NJ did the city in.  The cold air was aloft but the surface started at 36 dew point 33 unless you have S pr even only S+ not going to get much.

This was basically like a late season version of 2/06 with the megaband about 50 miles west.

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9 minutes ago, Paragon said:

This was basically like a late season version of 2/06 with the megaband about 50 miles west.

About 20 miles west from me. But 2 miles than me had almost twice the amount.  But at least the grass is covered and it looks nice out. As this kind of snow is lethal I'm happy to let others deal with the big amounts. I have power and my vehicles can get out without shoveling. I lost satellite for a few hours though.

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Still snowing heavily but final amount here (western Suffolk) is 8.3”. Got very lucky with banding and being colder early on so the snow stuck. Uptons original 6-8” call for nw suffolk worked out well, not sure anywhere got 10”. I could see miller place or port Jeff coming in with double digits. 

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3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Still snowing heavily but final amount here (western Suffolk) is 8.3”. Got very lucky with banding and being colder early on so the snow stuck. Uptons original 6-8” call for nw suffolk worked out well, not sure anywhere got 10”. I could see miller place or port Jeff coming in with double digits. 

Well if it's still snowing heavily there you have a chance at 10" ;-)

 

 

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3 hours ago, CTNoreaster said:

A light rain, flipped quickly. Big drops too. Maybe we switch back in the last band. Real quick compaction with the mashed potatoes on the ground. Maybe half here at 95 than you.

Screenshot_20180307-201002.png

You measured 5 before the compaction?

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29 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Still snowing heavily but final amount here (western Suffolk) is 8.3”. Got very lucky with banding and being colder early on so the snow stuck. Uptons original 6-8” call for nw suffolk worked out well, not sure anywhere got 10”. I could see miller place or port Jeff coming in with double digits. 

Here in miller place..think we ended up with right around 8 or 9 inches. Trees leaning down and snapped everywhere.

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4 hours ago, nzucker said:

We didn't have much rain here, but it just didn't accumulate well until the rates got REALLY heavy later in the afternoon.

Staten Island and Southern Brooklyn/Queens lost a lot more to rain. Though even Bay Ridge, my old stomping grounds, had like 5". 

I actually think UHI was the biggest factor here. LGA was the lowest report at 1.7", and they have the worst UHI in the entire City. Staten Island has the least urban footprint, and they had 8"...the Bronx is in the middle and had 5-6". Bay Ridge, though far south, is really residential and did decently too, better than much of Midtown Manhattan well to the north.

UHI had nothing to do with it here in northeast Queens. We usually accumulate better here than in the more urban areas. The biggest issue was weak snow rates, being caught in the subsidence zone all day.  When the rates picked up for the hour or two that they did, a couple of inches accumulated. Even if there was arctic air in place, it still would have been a modest storm here.

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