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March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm Observations

Rtd208

By Rtd208,
in New York City Metro

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PB COLTS NECK NJ

PB COLTS NECK NJ

Posted
Posted

2 for 2

A great system once again esp N and W as the pattern has cooperated with some of the past analogs we used at 500

This is snowmaggedon 2 displaced N and W , so places in EPA NWNJ and the HV saw 2 excellent snowstorms in just 5 days 

 

The 3rd  / the last in the series will be Monday 

Only a small correction is needed for another major winter storm to take aim at the area.

Once again , I am not fully sold on the coast like I am the interior but like today details sometimes ruin a great pattern forecast 

 

Here in Monmouth County we got 5 today and not the 10 I thought 

But the 12 to 18 worked out great N and W

 

Goos luck Monday 

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

As of 5 pm, we were up to 6.25" (1.5" that hour) and we then got 1.5" between 5 and 6 pm, so we're up to 7.75" for the storm (about 7" on the ground, plus the 3/4" we had this morning) as of 6 pm. And still coming down. Can we get another hour out of this and get to 9"? Maybe.

So, just did my 2nd shoveling (not nearly as bad as the first - lower water content) in the middle of the last hurrah of the storm, so that was fun. Measured 7.75" on the ground at about 7:30 pm, which, combined with the 3/4" from this morning, gives me a final tally of 8.5". So my 6" guess from 2 days ago ended up being better than my 13" guess this morning before things got going, lol.  

Got too enamored with the models, I guess, and that surprise sleet/rain actually took away about 1" from my final measurement, as the snow compacted from about 3" to 2" at that time (need to talk with NOAA about that, as I don't think it's accurate to not account for that compaction due to rain, but the measurement guidelines don't appear to allow one to correct for that compaction), plus the 90 minutes of mostly missing snow probably took away another 2+", i.e., we could've had 11-12" if not for the sleet/rain. Oh well. Still a helluva storm for March, with some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen (3" per hour at times), plus THUNDERSNOW! 

And I won a $100 bet with an on-line friend from the RU football message board: the bet was that New Brunswick would get more than its average snowfall for March, of 4.2".  We made the bet back when I was posting on that board in late Feb about the upcoming potentially snowy pattern.  Not sure what NB got officially, but I saw unofficial reports of around 7". Was a fun bet as the loser donates to the RU Football Program.

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
Just now, NYCGreg said:

Not saying they are wrong, but I have yet to see an official report anywhere of over 20 inches from this storm.  I'm guessing around 10 people have stated on this board they have over 20 inches from this storm.  Pretty amazing.

This whole area along 287 in Passaic and Bergen is over 20”. Pretty sure I saw an official report for 19” in Oakland and 19” in North Caldwell.

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snywx

snywx

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The GFS had rain into NE NJ which was wrong and the NAM was too far West with the heaviest snows.

The death band that hit you guys in NE NJ was showing on the 0z NAM in Sussex county running through western Orange, instead it ran through W Passaic/Bergen into eastern orange. We got a piece of the band for 2 hrs and it was truly amazing. Glad you guys finally cashed in down there!

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, NYCGreg said:

Not saying they are wrong, but I have yet to see an official report anywhere of over 20 inches from this storm.  I'm guessing around 10 people have stated on this board they have over 20 inches from this storm.  Pretty amazing.

A trained spotter in Franklin Lakes, NJ measured 24".

CoCoRaHs in Oakland, NJ had 19".

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swamplover56

swamplover56

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, NYCGreg said:

Not saying they are wrong, but I have yet to see an official report anywhere of over 20 inches from this storm.  I'm guessing around 10 people have stated on this board they have over 20 inches from this storm.  Pretty amazing.

Kinnelon, Franklin Lakes, Butler all well over 20"  Warren, Berkley Heights, Stirling, Gillette, Morristown, Madison, Caldwell, Verona, East Hanover, Randolph at or within a couple inches of 20 see Tomer Bergs tweet can't link for some reason 18-28" all over morris, bergen, sussex country

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PB COLTS NECK NJ

PB COLTS NECK NJ

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

People who relied too much on snow maps instead of knowledge were exposed with this storm.

 

Luckily we don't use snow maps 

I posted in here 4 days ago that this was 3 to 6 on the coast and 6 to 12 inland 

I think Neg NAO will confirm at that time Mt Holly had all rain in their AFD

 

And a day prior we went 6 to 10 on the coast and 12 to 18 inland 

 

2 for 2 , now we wait for Monday 

 

 

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North and West

North and West

Posted
Posted
Kinnelon, Franklin Lakes, Butler all well over 20"  Warren, Berkley Heights, Stirling, Gillette, Morristown, Madison, Caldwell, Verona, East Hanover, Randolph at or within a couple inches of 20 see Tomer Bergs tweet can't link for some reason 18-28" all over morris, bergen, sussex country

MMU and the vicinity is reported as 16”-22”


.
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North and West

North and West

Posted
Posted
The death band that hit you guys in NE NJ was showing on the 0z NAM in Sussex county running through western Orange, instead it ran through W Passaic/Bergen into eastern orange. We got a piece of the band for 2 hrs and it was truly amazing. Glad you guys finally cashed in down there!

Awesome to watch out my window... but now lacking power and dreading shoveling in the morning.


.
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purduewx80

purduewx80

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

People who relied too much on snow maps instead of knowledge were exposed with this storm.

exactly. QPF queens will perhaps learn someday. other lessons to take home from today:

  • difficulty accumulating in coastal UHIs in marginal boundary layers
    • climatology for 6+" storms in march shows low risk
  • watch for mesoscale details, like:
    • frontogenetic/deformation banding - that was the hot spot, as you'd expect, and the NAM and GFS didn't catch onto the placement of that until today (except random other runs days ago)
      • heaviest snow fell just left of strongest frontogenesis
    • dry slot - model internals were onto this despite QPF imperfections (look at 700-500 RH progs)
    • lapse rates + dynamics - 6.5-7.5+ C/km progged and observed plus impressive upper dynamics contributed to prolific thundersnow (dry slot also associated w/ this)
  • level of impact not always directly related to accumulations
    • i.e. in aviation, runways contaminated with any snow + unfavorable crosswinds winds (~G30KT+) can be a low or no ops situation
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CTNoreaster

CTNoreaster

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

10 inches in Easton CT. 

Slowed to a snow drizzle mix.

37.5 on the year officially above average year

A light rain, flipped quickly. Big drops too. Maybe we switch back in the last band. Real quick compaction with the mashed potatoes on the ground. Maybe half here at 95 than you.

Screenshot_20180307-201002.png

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coastalplainsnowman

coastalplainsnowman

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, NYCGreg said:

Not saying they are wrong, but I have yet to see an official report anywhere of over 20 inches from this storm.  I'm guessing around 10 people have stated on this board they have over 20 inches from this storm.  Pretty amazing.

Some big numbers posted with Mt. Holly, and I think some of our posters are covered by them.

 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?new&prod=XXXPNSPHI&wfo=phi

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etudiant

etudiant

Posted
Posted

The actual snowfall in Manhattan was quite modest. Central Park as of 5pm  today showed at most 2" of very wet slushy snow, on grass and wooden surfaces.

Quite windy, in the 15+mph range, snow in big wet flakes

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mikem81

mikem81

Posted
Posted

took the family to Mahwah. Crazy difference driiving back between Upper Bergen and Nyc metro. Once over the GWB the roads has no snow. Went from 20 inches to about 10 in the paramaus area to around 3-5 here in Western Nassau.

 NYC?LI just dont seem to accumate with borderline temps. The 850 and 925 temps were good and so was LP placement. Frustrating! but happy i saw the 20 inches and crazy snow rates before coming home.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, etudiant said:

The actual snowfall in Manhattan was quite modest. Central Park as of 5pm  today showed at most 2" of very wet slushy snow, on grass and wooden surfaces.

Quite windy, in the 15+mph range, snow in big wet flakes

The UHI killed the more developed areas of NYC. It wasn't really a north-south thing because Staten Island had 8"....and we had about 5-6" here in the Northeast Bronx. 

You have to account for UHI when it's a late-season storm with a marginal boundary layer. There wasn't an arctic high in place so we didn't have a very cold airmass.

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