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March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm Observations


Rtd208

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1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Well so much for that statement, lol, as the sleet mixing in certainly hasn't helped ratios (but as I've said many times, I'm a mass guy, not a density guy, lol).  For the past hour I did some errands.  Went onto Route 1 for a bit, then 287 and both were snow covered and getting bad and local roads in Edison and Metuchen are an adventure.  

Back to the snow.  About 1:30 pm or so started getting some sleet and then the past 20 minutes have been snow/sleet and surprisingly just moderate in intensity.  Looks like that's about to change and hopefully we'll go back to all snow (50/50 now).  As of 2:00 pm we have 3" of new snow on the ground, so only 1" the last hour.  3.75" total counting our 3/4" in the morning.  

OMGWOW!!!!  The heaviest snow this year, no question, and maybe in many years, although I probably always say that - most recent one always stands out - this 2-3" per hour stuff, even heavier than earlier. Let's see if it holds up.  After getting now more accumulation from 2:00 to maybe 3:30 or so (sleet, rain and low intensity, plus compaction), was still at 3.0" new at 3:00 pm.  Well I just took my 4 pm measurement and we're up to 4" of new snow and 4.75" overall. Got an inch in the last 20 minutes, which is a 3" per hour rate.  Will we sustain that?  

Also, if folks didn't see it NWS-Philly just updated their snow map and warnings/advisories.   Initially surprised the NWS increased total snowfall amounts for us again, although looking at the radar and the absolute puking snowfall rates right now, maybe it's not a bad call.  

No automatic alt text available.

 

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16 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

The 500mb cutting off means now the storm is cut off from the jet stream essentially slowing it down to a crawl

That would explain why the 20z HRRR just extended snow fall into NYC until 8:00pm tonight and points east even later than that. Previous hourly runs had it shutting off earlier. 

hrrr_ref_frzn_us_7.png

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9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Wow 3” on the UWS and dumping 

wow really? Coming down now but not really accumulating any more. Feels like I've been looking at the same inch maybe from the thunder snow earlier.

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2 minutes ago, Meteoropoulos said:

That would explain why the 20z HRRR just extended snow fall into NYC until 8:00pm tonight and points east even later than that. Previous hourly runs had it shutting off earlier. 

 

TBH, I just checked HRRR and I don't see a change in end time from the 12z run to the 20z run. Always showed it ending around 7-8PM for NYC.

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3 minutes ago, NYCGreg said:

Just wait and see what happens.  Maybe the last few hours deliver.  Even if they don't, is it worth spending the rest of the storm - and possibly the last storm of winter - complaining?

See this is what I mean. I made an observation. Example of complaint: this weather sucks ( the consensus among the rest of the population ) Examples of observation: the storm is not performing as well here; areas to the west have more snow etc. Not saying I haven't complained at all, but that was not a complaint. Entiendes?

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Clearly, in March, you need one of two things (both help, of course)..elevation or the best banding over your area. If you have neither, it’s very, very difficult to exceed 6” of snowfall. I feel like the last several storms have been right around 5-6” total. I do agree with the decision by the NWS to forecast amounts up to 16” though. Their maps are also very useful showing the lowest/highest amounts amounts and the chance of each happening. My forecast has been for 10-16”. 3-4” down and I could see us getting 6, maybe 7 here..but areas not too far to the SW, W, N, and NW (maybe even E on LI) will definitely get 10-12”+, easy

 

 

. Pro

 

 

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10 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

OMGWOW!!!!  The heaviest snow this year, no question, and maybe in many years, although I probably always say that - most recent one always stands out - this 2-3" per hour stuff, even heavier than earlier. Let's see if it holds up.  After getting now more accumulation from 2:00 to maybe 3:30 or so (sleet, rain and low intensity, plus compaction), was still at 3.0" new at 3:00 pm.  Well I just took my 4 pm measurement and we're up to 4" of new snow and 4.75" overall. Got an inch in the last 20 minutes, which is a 3" per hour rate.  Will we sustain that?  

Also, if folks didn't see it NWS-Philly just updated their snow map and warnings/advisories.   Initially surprised the NWS increased total snowfall amounts for us again, although looking at the radar and the absolute puking snowfall rates right now, maybe it's not a bad call.  

No automatic alt text available.

 

Coming down nicely here too right now. Love your enthusiasm RU. Drove the wife in to lyse her cells and RTQPCR whatever that is, and ran into the start of storm on 287 from S Plainfield to Colonia and it was difficult in only a 30 min span. After that burst, same here we had hours of lighter stuff and sleet. Its coming down now though.

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15 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Getting plastered in Riverhead now with some of the wettest snow ever. 

I've changed to++S..temp @ 33.0..WOW..talk about a crashing rain/snow line..and it headed east..not the usual N to S movement.

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2 minutes ago, WintersGrasp said:

Clearly, in March, you need one of two things (both help, of course)..elevation or the best banding over your area. If you have neither, it’s very, very difficult to exceed 6” of snowfall. I feel like the last several storms have been right around 5-6” total. I do agree with the decision by the NWS to forecast amounts up to 16” though. Their maps are also very useful showing the lowest/highest amounts amounts and the chance of each happening. My forecast has been for 10-16”. 3-4” down and I could see us getting 6, maybe 7 here..but areas not too far to the SW, W, N, and NW (maybe even E on LI) will definitely get 10-12”+, easy

 

 

. Pro

 

 

Well, if they go 6-12, and we get 6....then they were right I guess. If this band stays over me I can get to 6. Areas just to my west have passed that IIRC.

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