hooralph Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 You can, ah, see the accumulation challenges here in the scorching heat island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Dino said: ratios are awful here -- we're getting 5:1 maybe less ratios, and the snow is melting in between subsidence zones. currently flurries. forecast is 8 to 12" currently....that means we need literally 8 to 12 inches to fall starting with next wave. not looking good guys. areas west are able to retain their accumulations, not the case in LIC. Oh well. Enjoy the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 The coast, even though it's mostly snow now, doesn't seem to be a good spot for this storm. The heavy radar echoes fly through, and then grind to a halt inland, where the snow piles up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 just hit 9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, hooralph said: You can, ah, see the accumulation challenges here in the scorching heat island. You're asking for snow to accumulate in a border line setup in a higly urbanized area during the day in March, not an easy task. Up here in the NW burbs it's a Winter wonder land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Already scooting east, can't see more than 4" OTG in NYC but that's fine, big snow totals are normal now, thundersnow isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Absolutely puking dendrites. 7" measured at 2:00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Snowing lightly in Hoboken right now, making Baltimore Wisher happy. Waiting for radar to fill back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: You're asking for snow to accumulate in a border line setup in a higly urbanized area during the day in March, not an easy task. Up here in the NW burbs it's a Winter wonder land. I'm not asking for anything, just providing an observation. Never thought we could hit the high end of accumulations. Harkens back to the discussion yesterday about why climatology still matters in forecasting! But I'll enjoy the rates and the slush as it piles up. If/when it picks back up, we should be able to get it to accumulate and stick to the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 pretty frustrating here in white plains so far, got a good burst for 30 mins or so, otherwise nothing to write home about. getting some decent wind gusts, waiting game. 2” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Snowing heavier by the minute outside. Coating on colder surfaces. The bust proclamations need to stop. Pretty sure we will be accumulating up to a few inches per hour shortly. Do you think we can eek out 6 inches from Lynbrook to Long Beach? I'm getting that increase in snow as you just mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 5.8" at the stake Mod-heavy snow 1.6" in the last 80 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Already scooting east, can't see more than 4" OTG in NYC but that's fine, big snow totals are normal now, thundersnow isn't. We want it to move east so the heavy banding currently over NJ moves here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Snow should wrap up from West to East between 7-9PM. The next few hours will be the height of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 HRRR still gives the area 3 to 6 inches more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: And so much for that Kuchera ratio - I don't even have to melt it down to tell you it's at least close to 10:1 (thought it would be), as it simply doesn't look that dense, plus hard to imagine getting a lot more than 2" per hour (if the ratio were 7:1, I'd have 3" at 10:1 - maybe it's that high, but I don't think so) , which we gave gotten in the first hour. 2" on the ground now since the noon start (and we had 3/4" on the ground around 8 am, which melted, but that counts) and 33F now. Well so much for that statement, lol, as the sleet mixing in certainly hasn't helped ratios (but as I've said many times, I'm a mass guy, not a density guy, lol). For the past hour I did some errands. Went onto Route 1 for a bit, then 287 and both were snow covered and getting bad and local roads in Edison and Metuchen are an adventure. Back to the snow. About 1:30 pm or so started getting some sleet and then the past 20 minutes have been snow/sleet and surprisingly just moderate in intensity. Looks like that's about to change and hopefully we'll go back to all snow (50/50 now). As of 2:00 pm we have 3" of new snow on the ground, so only 1" the last hour. 3.75" total counting our 3/4" in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, hooralph said: I'm not asking for anything, just providing an observation. Never thought we could hit the high end of accumulations. Harkens back to the discussion yesterday about why climatology still matters in forecasting! But I'll enjoy the rates and the slush as it piles up. If/when it picks back up, we should be able to get it to accumulate and stick to the trees. This is why I decided not to update my snowfall map last night even when things ticked East. I'm sure the outer burbs and LI will do well however once the sun begins to set and the system begins to pull East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Snow should wrap up from West to East between 7-9PM. The next few hours will be the height of the storm. Not so sure about that... I don’t think it will until around 10pm for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, nzucker said: We want it to move east so the heavy banding currently over NJ moves here. Doubt those bands remain this strong as the system pulls east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Philadelphia radar is underestimating the snow here. 1"/hr stuff, heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: HRRR still gives the area 3 to 6 inches more Still 0.75-1.00" LE to come over most of the area, with improving ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 9 minutes ago, SnowDemon said: Oh well. Enjoy the snow. haha, enjoying my 1/2 inch of slush while NWS still calling for 10 to 16" actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 That band has just parked itself over interior northern NJ. Those areas seeing 2-3in/hr. Could easily see a foot there but to the east of it is a big question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, allgame830 said: Not so sure about that... I don’t think it will until around 10pm for NYC That's according to the HRRR, doesn't make it correct, but the radar does look like the system is pulling East at a significant pace. The question will be whether or not the system stalls briefly as it begins to occlude late this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: HRRR still gives the area 3 to 6 inches more So... 3-6 inches total. Seems pretty reasonable although take the HRRR with a grain of salt. Would be disappointing considering the upside but for March, I'll take it if we can have a good show for a couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Still 0.75-1.00" LE to come over most of the area, with improving ratios. Does the HRRR take ratios into consideration? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutCorRX Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Another crack of thunder and sounds like a bit of a change over to sleet in Hoboken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 Looks like I have around 2.0"-2.5" of accumulation so far. Waiting for those heavier bands of snow to move in from off the ocean, things should really picked up as we go through mid afternoon and early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Sitting real nice under the big band in Somerset County...finally a storm where we are cashing in...all you weenies down the shore and LI be happy, you have been in the jackpot zone for the last few years while us out west got shafted...Keep the heavy stuff coming!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, nzucker said: We want it to move east so the heavy banding currently over NJ moves here. The bands will not be as intense once they reach Long Island because by then the system will have begun to weaken. The heaviest snows are while the storm is strengthening. Right now it's down to 992mb, so still another 4mb or so of deepening to go before it reaches it's forecasted peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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