March Mid/Long Range Disco 3

[ErinInTheSky]

I didn’t sweat it when we lost the Euro that one run last time, won’t sweat it now  unless it comes in absent this time.

 

What I’m not a fan of is even with the GFS, it’s awfully close to being just a heavy rain storm.

[osfan24]

2 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I didn’t sweat it when we lost the Euro that one run last time, won’t sweat it now  unless it comes in absent this time.

 

what I’m not a fan of is even with the GFS, it’s awfully close to being just a heavy rain storm.

It's March. It's very rare for us to have no temperature concerns in March. Heck, that's the case even in most winter events for us. I just want to see the EPS jump back on board.

[Ji]

26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I thought EPS was a disaster too. It's only ok if your comparing it to the op. But the vast majority of the EPS are misses south and a lot are way south. 

That doesn't mean it's right. Gefs and geps look great. EPS can have a bad run. But as of now we lost the euro. 

what caused the EPS disaster...from eyeballing it...there seemed to be no interaction between the northern and southern stream. The northern stream actually became a strong ULL that ended up over new New England lol

[mappy]

Sunday storm cancel?

[LP08]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

what caused the EPS disaster...from eyeballing it...there seemed to be no interaction between the northern and southern stream. The northern stream actually became a strong ULL that ended up over new New England lol

Were we not just in this situation with Wednesdays storm at 120-144?  Then as we see for tomorrow , they are meeting in the middle.  Again, not saying all storms are alike, but I remember being miles apart for Wednesday at this time frame.

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

It's March. It's very rare for us to have no temperature concerns in March. Heck, that's the case even in most winter events for us. I just want to see the EPS jump back on board.

It's rare for us to have no temperature concerns any time 

[Ralph Wiggum]

0z EPS. 

EPS and euro op had tonight/tomorrows system so far off the coast and East of other guidance it had people up here in a panic it would miss completely. At 72 hrs out it stubbornly ticked. Now all guidance has system tucked so close we have mixing concerns up here in climo snow zones in PA well NW of Philly. Point ks, the Euro doesnt handle NAO ridging/blocking very well apparently.

[showmethesnow]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I thought EPS was a disaster too. It's only ok if your comparing it to the op. But the vast majority of the EPS are misses south and a lot are way south. 

That doesn't mean it's right. Gefs and geps look great. EPS can have a bad run. But as of now we lost the euro. 

I am not sure the 00Z EPS was such a big disaster. In fact it is still a big storm signal but just slightly off from what we want to see for impacts to our region. It is showing an almost spot on look as the GEFS except for two small differences. Stronger ridging in the west extending farther north through Canada and a more progressive trough as it is still positively tilted. Mentioned yesterday that I thought we needed to keep an eye on the ridging in the west especially into Canada. Stronger ridging there and we will most likely see the upper portion of the trough get ahead of the southern portion creating a positive tilt when we need a neutral. Really only is a matter of a small adjustment to where the EPS is rocking us. Of course conversely it is only a small adjustment for the GEFS to join the EPS. 

 

 

 

[nj2va]

1 hour ago, PDIII said:

The problem with the 6z seems to be in the transfer.  The Ohio River valley low hangs around the same place and even retrogrades a little for about 12 hours.  Thats gonna produce a SE flow over our area.  

My point is that a March storm will most certainly have mixing concerns especially near the cities.  But theres no use worrying about that now when we should first focus on getting a storm and then iron out the finer details like r/s lines, etc much closer to the event.

[Ralph Wiggum]

How often do these lr modeled perfect March storm scenario hold course and work out? Not being negative or sarcastic....its an honest question. I feel like we have a similar threat every other year on avg if not more.

[kurtstack]

Well I was hoping this was one of those typical stemwinders that Euro and GFS lock into at medium range and we basically throw away the keys and tally up the inches.  It's becoming apparent this isn't one of those and will be more of a nail biter right up to the event.  The overall trend seems to be toward a more progressive system but there is still plenty of time to reverse that trend as showmethesnow pointed out.  Best of luck to all - hoping we all get smoked by at least 6-12" to salvage winter. 

[Jandurin]

10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

How often do these lr modeled perfect March storm scenario hold course and work out? Not being negative or sarcastic....its an honest question. I feel like we have a similar threat every other year on avg if not more.

Worry about the future, not the past.

[psuhoffman]

50 minutes ago, Ji said:

what caused the EPS disaster...from eyeballing it...there seemed to be no interaction between the northern and southern stream. The northern stream actually became a strong ULL that ended up over new New England lol

At 120 hours the EPS and gefs are almost identical in the northern stream.  The EPS however is much weaker with the southern system ejecting into the plains.  Where the gefs has a low up over Oklahoma the EPS has a weak wave down in Texas.  That cascades down the line.

The EPS is slightly more suppressive over New England but the main difference is there just isn't enough energy coming across to amplify the system enough to gain any poleward trajectory against the blocking.  When the gefs has lows clustered inland across NC the EPS is east 100 miles OTS. And the gefs is 1000 mb mean and EPS 1007. Everything is just less amped. 

Thats a huge problem because all guidance has shifted away from digging the northern stream as much. Honestly I don't like that because it does open this door the euro went through. The upper level deepening is equally a response to the southern system as much as the northern stream.  

The gefs and geps both have an amplified enough southern wave to get it done. To get far enough north to begin phasing and amplify the trough. But with a relatively flat trough vs a sharp digging one if the stj energy goes weak the storm will slide out south. I liked the NS look better a couple days ago when it was digging more and further west. That opened the door to an inland run but it also guaranteed a storm because any energy would work. Now we need that system to eject healthy or it will get squashed. 

Please don't take the last paragraph to mean I'm down on this. It's still the best setup in a long long time. But there is the risk of suppression in this pattern. I'd like to see a slightly more amplified northern stream digging in to feel safe. That can happen we're talking minor changes. And of course hopefully the euro is doing its hanging too much stj energy back thing and that's why it's ejecting a weaker wave and the cascading dominoes of fail that come after. It's pretty much all over the moment the euro ejects a weak POS into Texas vs a healthy wave into the plains. 

[psuhoffman]

50 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

2 hours ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

0z EPS. 

EPS and euro op had tonight/tomorrows system so far off the coast and East of other guidance it had people up here in a panic it would miss completely. At 72 hrs out it stubbornly ticked. Now all guidance has system tucked so close we have mixing concerns up here in climo snow zones in PA well NW of Philly. Point ks, the Euro doesnt handle NAO ridging/blocking very well apparently.

It doesn't seem to handle anything well recently. Looking back at this system tomorrow from 7 days out the gfs and euro definitely compromised. Gfs was wrong early with keeping the two northern systems separated  and  diving one way down to VA. But the euro was even worse with merging the two and keeping both pinwheeling over Canada. In the end they did merge and pinwheel but the gfs gets points for seeing the dig of the trough into the northeast and a major amplification on the coast. The compromise was 75/25 in the gfs favor imo. 

[poolz1]

Not a news flash here but the GEPS really took a nice turn last night compared to 12z yesterday.

12z Yesterday

 

00z Run

[Interstate]

I know people are throwing out GEFS and GEPS... and riding the one that works out the best... but what one is really more accurate?

[Thanatos_I_Am]

15 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Not a news flash here but the GEPS really took a nice turn last night compared to 12z yesterday.

12z Yesterday

 

 

00z Run

 

The low locations are money, as well. 

[Jandurin]

Just now, Interstate said:

I know people are throwing out GEFS and GEPS... and riding the one that works out the best... but what one is really more accurate?

I think it's just "does the storm still exist" mode here.

[cae]

 

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The gefs and geps both have an amplified enough southern wave to get it done. To get far enough north to begin phasing and amplify the trough. But with a relatively flat trough vs a sharp digging one if the stj energy goes weak the storm will slide out south. I liked the NS look better a couple days ago when it was digging more and further west. That opened the door to an inland run but it also guaranteed a storm because any energy would work. Now we need that system to eject healthy or it will get squashed. 

I was looking at this last night but wasn't sure about the best way to descrbe it.  There has been a clear steady northern trend in the GFS over the last 5 runs.  At 06z yesterday the system was more of a closed H5 from the northern stream getting under us.  Over the last several runs it has shifted to an amplified southern wave with the northern wave dropping behind it.  The southern wave at 06z today on the GFS is now up by Missouri, near where the northern stream wave was at 06z yesterday.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, cae said:

 

I was looking at this last night but wasn't sure about the best way to descrbe it.  There has been a clear steady northern trend in the GFS over the last 5 runs.  At 06z yesterday the system was more of a closed H5 from the northern stream getting under us.  Over the last several runs it has shifted to an amplified southern wave with the northern wave dropping behind it.  The southern wave at 06z today on the GFS is now up by Missouri, near where the northern stream wave was yesterday.

Sounds like once again...at least as of right now...there's a growing golf between the EURO and GFS...mercy

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

At 120 hours the EPS and gefs are almost identical in the northern stream.  The EPS however is much weaker with the southern system ejecting into the plains.  Where the gefs has a low up over Oklahoma the EPS has a weak wave down in Texas.  That cascades down the line.

The EPS is slightly more suppressive over New England but the main difference is there just isn't enough energy coming across to amplify the system enough to gain any poleward trajectory against the blocking.  When the gefs has lows clustered inland across NC the EPS is east 100 miles OTS. And the gefs is 1000 mb mean and EPS 1007. Everything is just less amped. 

Thats a huge problem because all guidance has shifted away from digging the northern stream as much. Honestly I don't like that because it does open this door the euro went through. The upper level deepening is equally a response to the southern system as much as the northern stream.  

The gefs and geps both have an amplified enough southern wave to get it done. To get far enough north to begin phasing and amplify the trough. But with a relatively flat trough vs a sharp digging one if the stj energy goes weak the storm will slide out south. I liked the NS look better a couple days ago when it was digging more and further west. That opened the door to an inland run but it also guaranteed a storm because any energy would work. Now we need that system to eject healthy or it will get squashed. 

Please don't take the last paragraph to mean I'm down on this. It's still the best setup in a long long time. But there is the risk of suppression in this pattern. I'd like to see a slightly more amplified northern stream digging in to feel safe. That can happen we're talking minor changes. And of course hopefully the euro is doing its hanging too much stj energy back thing and that's why it's ejecting a weaker wave and the cascading dominoes of fail that come after. It's pretty much all over the moment the euro ejects a weak POS into Texas vs a healthy wave into the plains. 

Wasn't' that an old bias of the Euro?  Holding too much back in the southwest?  I don't know if it still is or not, however.

[Cobalt]

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Wasn't' that an old bias of the Euro?  Holding too much back in the southwest?  I don't know if it still is or not, however.

Pretty sure it still is. Pretty sure that's the reason it held on to the Christmas torch for so long

[cae]

 

3 hours ago, Ji said:

ive seen the GEFS collapse too...in one run so we are not out of the woods. Today is the most important day for this storm in my opinion. If we can get to 00z tonight and still have a storm...i think we will be in decent shape

The GEFS appear to collapse more often than the other ensembles because of the underdispersion issue.  They tend to go all in on a particular solution, which looks great when they're right but can be frustrating when they're wrong.

35 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I know people are throwing out GEFS and GEPS... and riding the one that works out the best... but what one is really more accurate?

They're comparable at this range and this time of year.  The GEPS were much better in February, but in January the GEFS were doing better.  (Looking at verification scores, it appears that the GEFS struggled around the time of the SSW event.  I'm not sure if that's just a coincidence though.)  Recently they've been roughly even again.  In a good way too - they're both doing well.

The two ensembles have very different "styles" though.  There is usually much more spread in the GEPS, so they often appear to be slower to catch on than the GEFS but they're also much less likely to toss out weenie runs that never verify.  For example, I would consider last night to be a relatively good run of the GEPS even though most of the members miss us on the 12th.

I saw something to like in the GEPS last night when looking through the individual members.  The members with the biggest hits are circled below in red.  #7 and #19 were huge. 

With the exception of #13, the big hits have closed surface lows around northern Mississippi around 120 hours.  Now compare them (#19 in particular) to the ensemble mean. 

Of course there are no guarantees and this can all change, but it's a good sign when the best members of an ensemble look like the ensemble mean.

 

[Ji]

how do you guys think 84 nam looks lol

[yoda]

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

how do you guys think 84 nam looks lol

Just for kicks, is that the 50/50 low in N NE?  And our energy coming into W MT, yes?

[yoda]

12z ICON at 141 two contour closed h5 in SE TN/W NC... opens up just offshore NC at 156

[Interstate]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z ICON at 141 closed h5 in KY/TN

Need the southern stream to slow down a little bit for the phase and capture

[Kmlwx]

No massive changes on the GFS at H5 over the CONUS through 84 at least. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

No massive changes on the GFS at H5 over the CONUS through 84 at least. 

So unlike the EURO...it probably still has the storm? Lol

[clskinsfan]

Yep. the ICON misses the phase. Kind of what the GFS was doing yesterday at 12Z. Not sure I am buying the complete whiff to the south though. That isnt really a monster HP over the top pressing.