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March Mid/Long Range Disco 3


WxUSAF

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I'm hoping 00z EPS looks like 12z did


Same. That was literally one of the most incredibly bad runs for a potential storm I have ever seen. I mean... there was just nothing to look at. Total death. Closest precip at one point was in Tampa lol. I’m not worried or anything like that, but my goodness. What a zany run.


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2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

 


There wasn’t even a storm at all. First sign of a low was off the east coast of FL lol. It was a comedy of fail on that run. EPS will tell a different story. That was truly a master piece of awful.


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Just ordered my seed potatoes. Goodbye frozen turn 2017/18. On to spring severe season fail. Then my corn will be 8' and we'll get severe lol

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14 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

 


There wasn’t even a storm at all. First sign of a low was off the east coast of FL lol. It was a comedy of fail on that run. EPS will tell a different story. That was truly a master piece of awful.


.

 

Wait wha?? How you just gonna lose a storm altogether like that? So there was never any evolution of any kind that showed up? Lol

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Yea not terrible considering the horrid OP but a step back from 12z. Mean is south and east of 12z and less amped, tucked solutions. Mean snowfall is 2” for DC. 
What was mean snowfall in dc at 12z...didnt look like too much more than 2
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1 minute ago, Ji said:
7 minutes ago, nj2va said:
Yea not terrible considering the horrid OP but a step back from 12z. Mean is south and east of 12z and less amped, tucked solutions. Mean snowfall is 2” for DC. 

What was mean snowfall in dc at 12z...didnt look like too much more than 2

1.5” but it’s a step down for n/w of dc and the mean distribution has a signature favoring southern solutions compared to 12z which makes sense given the mslp maps. 

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

Gfs is only 96 hours from the storm developing. Its been rock solid so far. Can't imagine it would just disappear lol but it is dc

I feel like gfs has had a better winter overall but I’m pulling that logic from page 12 of the weenie handbook. I don’t even know what to think about the euro honestly. It certainly doesn’t leave me feeling good since it was such a disaster 

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I feel like gfs has had a better winter overall but I’m pulling that logic from page 12 of the weenie handbook. I don’t even know what to think about the euro honestly. It certainly doesn’t leave me feeling good since it was such a disaster 
Until 12z euro runs...there will be a dark cloud. If the gfs is gonna show fail today 12z is where it will happen. Today is the most important modeling day. We need to survive today
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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Let’s get the precip here first then worry about r/s line. Considering it’s march, best to go with climo....I’m anticipating mixing here in a gfs like solution whereas favored spots would stay snow. 

The problem with the 6z seems to be in the transfer.  The Ohio River valley low hangs around the same place and even retrogrades a little for about 12 hours.  Thats gonna produce a SE flow over our area.  

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18 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

6z GEFS might be the best run so far. 6 inch line closing in on the beltway. Lots of big hits in there.

ive seen the GEFS collapse too...in one run so we are not out of the woods. Today is the most important day for this storm in my opinion. If we can get to 00z tonight and still have a storm...i think we will be in decent shape

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7 minutes ago, Ji said:

ive seen the GEFS collapse too...in one run so we are not out of the woods. Today is the most important day for this storm in my opinion. If we can get to 00z tonight and still have a storm...i think we will be in decent shape

It’s going to be another one of those crossroads kind of days. Need to get steps forward. What could possibly go wrong? That’s rhetorical. 

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