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March Mid/Long Range Disco 3


WxUSAF

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Just now, Fozz said:

If it isn't as impressive as March 1958, it's a fail

:lol:

i mean i didnt wait two years to get a 1.00 qpf storm in mid march with a severe -NAO...go big or go home. a 4-8 inch storm would be really pathetic imo

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

i mean i didnt wait two years to get a 1.00 qpf storm in mid march with a severe -NAO...go big or go home. a 4-8 inch storm would be really pathetic imo

If your going to downplay a great run at least get the math right. It's 1.25" all snow in your yard. Sorry for your loss though. Not talking about snow with the loss. It's the marbles rolling all over the floor that is troubling

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

i mean i didnt wait two years to get a 1.00 qpf storm in mid march with a severe -NAO...go big or go home. a 4-8 inch storm would be really pathetic imo

To a degree...I can understand that...Yet, in light of these last two years, we gotta be thankful if we get enough to shovel and plow at all (but again, if there is big potential, I totally get wanting to go all-in!!)

P.S. Ya never messaged me, brother! 

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

i mean i didnt wait two years to get a 1.00 qpf storm in mid march with a severe -NAO...go big or go home. a 4-8 inch storm would be really pathetic imo

I have to agree with you. I do think we can ramp up the juice as we get closer though. I’m betting the Euro mauls us. 

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

To a degree...I can understand that...Yet, in light of these last two years, we gotta be thankful if we get enough to shovel and plow at all (but again, if there is big potential, I totally get wanting to go all-in!!)

P.S. Ya never messaged me, brother! 

I mostly agree with Ji, but I'm not that worried about QPF yet. Globals obviously aren't going to nail that 6 days away and it's already not that bad. I'm hoping we get a big one. Haven't had one in years.

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

If your going to downplay a great run at least get the math right. It's 1.25" all snow in your yard. Sorry for your loss though. Not talking about snow with the loss. It's the marbles rolling all over the floor that is troubling

We went through this nonsense with him yesterday.  I'm not even bothering this time. 

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1 minute ago, Fozz said:

I mostly agree with Ji, but I'm not that worried about QPF yet. Globals obviously aren't going to nail that 6 days away and it's already not that bad. I'm hoping we get a big one. Haven't had one in years.

I can't relate with verbatim op runs at long leads. Amped up long duration event with a good track. The gfs run was a big one. We need less movie watching and more intellectual thinking around here. 

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1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Looks like the GFS is setting up for day 10...lol

 

1 minute ago, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said:

Ok now the state is set for the grand finale on the 16th

Ha the trend has been to hold the blocking longer. The 12th storm becomes a 50/50 and we do it all again. Perhaps with some real anomalous cold showing up around that time too. What if the 12th turns out to be an appetizer lol. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Ha the trend has been to hold the blocking longer. The 12th storm becomes a 50/50 and we do it all again. Perhaps with some real anomalous cold showing up around that time too. What if the 12th turns out to be an appetizer lol. 

Isn't it normal for the pattern to take longer to break down than what's originally modeled? Usually it's the other way around with the better pattern stuck at day 15...lol

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Ok just because I say this doesn't mean I'm in any way not excited about the 12th...I am...but that day 10 setup (and it was on the euro too) is intriguing if only from a wow crazy way. The AK vortex dumps wholly into the west but the blocking holds and the 50/50 vortex pinwheels all the North American cold and slingshots it down into the Conus. So we get the power play of power plays as the trough off the Pacific with all that moisture slams into the cold blocked in being forced south. Just wow type stuff. No idea how that plays out it's just interesting imo  

IMG_4500.thumb.PNG.4e207e50f649e972a0cd545d6942809a.PNG

 

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I can't relate with verbatim op runs at long leads. Amped up long duration event with a good track. The gfs run was a big one. We need less movie watching and more intellectual thinking around here. 
I just want dark blue dude. To me the maps excite me as much as the actual event:)
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6 minutes ago, Ji said:
15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
We went through this nonsense with him yesterday.  I'm not even bothering this time. 

I thought about what you said today about jan 2005. Icon and to some extent ggem trying to turn this into a miller b?

They've been doing that for days though. As long as the varsity sticks with the stj wave being dominant we're ok. If we start to see the gfs or euro trend toward a NS dominant storm then ill worry about that some.  

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Nice GEPS run.  Good uptick for March 7, and big jump in snow mean for the 12th.  Still a lot of misses, but some big hits.  Below are couple of the better members.  This is all from the 2nd system.

e5N02Zd.png

htfUUp7.png

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