Jandurin Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 Few earthquakes few tornadoes few actual floods Good place Are there even wildfires here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Years when this kind of long term extreme nao blocking sets up during peak climo is when we get 1996 and 2010. But at least we got a bit of a late save out of this one. You think this is a sign of a change, as in a return to more -NAO episodes ? ie. next winter maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 3 minutes ago, frd said: You think this is a sign of a change, as in a return to more -NAO episodes ? ie. next winter maybe? Can't say for sure but it can't be a bad sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Can't say for sure but it can't be a bad sign. Is there some kind of moderate correlation between lower solar activity and -NAO duration? Thought I read that somewhere.....obviously we're heading into a lower solar activity period so that could bode well for us in the upcoming years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 This is all bonus I'm just enjoying it. This has been one of the craziest blocking periods ever. It's been epic. I know only 2 of the storms snowed on us and only one was significant here but it's still been a crazy wild period and so much fun to track. And we did get a payoff finally so it wasn't wasted. Whats happening now I've never seen. I've seen flukey things time up with a quick cold shot in early April but I've never seen an arctic push and pretty significant threat window this late before. It's also interesting because typically snow threads in April are only timing up weak waves right behind a transient cold shot or getting a back end changeover. Nothing big. A big system will have a warm air push with it and it's rare to get enough cold entrenched here to have that. This threat across guidance is accompanied by an extreme (and I don't use that lightly) cold shot that could make a bigger storm "possible". If it fails so what it's April. This is cool though. We are living in rare times here. Agreed about the blocking. Hasnt been off the charts with the neg NAO but placement has been nice as well as staying power. People elsewhere are claiming 'hoping for April snow is just wasting time' is a ridiculous argument. My reply is as long as this neg NAO is there and guidance is still signaling, then Im tracking. Neg NAO/neg AO are our tickets to snow threats this time of year. We have both. If we had neither I would have been over it already. Ens suggest an Archambault flip to pos NAO around April 9-12 give or take, so thereafter is likely when we can finally bid this winter pattern farewell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Can't say for sure but it can't be a bad sign. Looking back through nao (and ao) data, there definitely is some sort of cycle embedded over larger timescales. The whys are only guesses as even scientists don't have definitive answers. Could be solar or maybe there is no explanation. Up until recently it was an impressive run of very strong positive phases during met winters. There are longer "streaks" or tendencies not too far back in time but the magnitude the last few years has been impressive. Just like with all anomalous cycles, things always regress to the mean eventually. Will next year have a neg ao/nao tendency? My guess is yes it will. Maybe not blockbuster or anything but it's totally logical to think that the ao and/or nao will average negative for DJF next year. Even if just a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looking back through nao (and ao) data, there definitely is some sort of cycle embedded over larger timescales. The whys are only guesses as even scientists don't have definitive answers. Could be solar or maybe there is no explanation. Up until recently it was an impressive run of very strong positive phases during met winters. There are longer "streaks" or tendencies not too far back in time but the magnitude the last few years has been impressive. Just like with all anomalous cycles, things always regress to the mean eventually. Will next year have a neg ao/nao tendency? My guess is yes it will. Maybe not blockbuster or anything but it's totally logical to think that the ao and/or nao will average negative for DJF next year. Even if just a little. From Paul Dorian: "The sun is blank today for the 10th straight day and it has been without sunspots this year more than half the time as the current solar cycle (#24) heads towards the next solar minimum. The last time the sun was this blank in a given year on a percentage basis was 2009 during the last solar minimum when 71% of the time was spotless." Obviously there are a few other factors in play, but wouldn't a 2009/2010 repeat be tasty? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 Been there done thatGive me newThat's why Boston would suckOh hey it's snowing again todayIt's a day that ends in -y during winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 48 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: Is there some kind of moderate correlation between lower solar activity and -NAO duration? Thought I read that somewhere.....obviously we're heading into a lower solar activity period so that could bode well for us in the upcoming years. I've read that there is some but it's not 1:1 but there has tended to be a big blocking year somewhere near the minimum each of the last few cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 22 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: From Paul Dorian: "The sun is blank today for the 10th straight day and it has been without sunspots this year more than half the time as the current solar cycle (#24) heads towards the next solar minimum. The last time the sun was this blank in a given year on a percentage basis was 2009 during the last solar minimum when 71% of the time was spotless." Obviously there are a few other factors in play, but wouldn't a 2009/2010 repeat be tasty? That would require timing up a moderate modoki Nino with a solar minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: That would require timing up a moderate modoki Nino with a solar minimum. Yea, a literal perfect storm year. Maybe it happens again before I'm gone but probably not. We'll get some more big winters but 3 storms in excess of 20" is probably a once in a lifetime for MA folks. Glad to have it on my resume. I wasn't here in 96 but it was the biggest of the 7 winters I had in the Rockies so I'm not sure I can say I missed out. Lol Our area rarely has a crap winter with decent blocking on the balance. Some weird years when the pac overwhelms blocking are always possible but overall, I'll take a chance on a neg ao on the means over any enso phase with a positive ao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 Seems legit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 00z GGEM likes Monday morning with 1 to 2 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 GFS Also, perfect timing for an early april storm.. around dawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 op controll eps Euro also likes the northern border areas for Monday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 e50 please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 I know the Monday system looks enticing on some of the models but I would take their snowfall outputs with extreme caution or better yet ignore them completely. Temps from 850 on down to the surface are a major issue leading into the storm and are dependent mostly on rates/total precip to get them down into workable range. With 850's temps marginal at best, 925's +3-5 degrees and the surface sitting low to mid 40's through the cities that is a lot to overcome leading into the storm. Now we do have cold pressing in from the north and west at this time but that is a double edged sword as the quicker and stronger that comes in the more it will tend to dampen the energy (inhibit the low's ability to strengthen) running underneath us. This weaker low in turn reduces the amount of precip available to overcome temps. As I said, a double edged sword. At this point I would lean towards any accumulations of 1+ inches to be confined to around the PA line and north. Think the cities and close in burbs will struggle to see more then a slushy inch at best and would not be surprised if it was more a rain to white rain scenario. Here's hoping I am wrong and some of the snowier runs verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I know the Monday system looks enticing on some of the models but I would take their snowfall outputs with extreme caution or better yet ignore them completely. Temps from 850 on down to the surface are a major issue leading into the storm and are dependent mostly on rates/total precip to get them down into workable range. With 850's temps marginal at best, 925's +3-5 degrees and the surface sitting low to mid 40's through the cities that is a lot to overcome leading into the storm. Now we do have cold pressing in from the north and west at this time but that is a double edged sword as the quicker and stronger that comes in the more it will tend to dampen the energy (inhibit the low's ability to strengthen) running underneath us. This weaker low in turn reduces the amount of precip available to overcome temps. As I said, a double edged storm. At this point I would lean towards any accumulations of 1+ inches to be confined to around the PA line and north. Think the cities and close in burbs will struggle to see more then a slushy inch at best and would not be surprised if it was more a rain to white rain scenario. Here's hoping I am wrong and some of the snowier runs verify. Its not very impressive. Rain/snow showers. Next.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: op controll eps Euro also likes the northern border areas for Monday lol The mean snowfall for my area is 5 to 6 inches which is fooking insane for April......lol dang. Wish the blocking set up about a month earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Its not very impressive. Rain/snow showers. Next.. Haven't been high on this for quite awhile now. And it isn't even a matter of adjustment on the low's track either for the cities to score. Farther south track means that we are getting a colder press of air but that in turn means a further weakening of the low and it's ability to strengthen thus lower rates to overcome the warm 925's to the surface. As depicted on the models at this point I don't expect nor believe that anyone, outside of those on the PA line, are really in the running for anything more then some very light slushy accumulations at best. Still am liking the window roughly centered on day 9. Get that general look inside of 5 days and we may be talking for the general region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Haven't been high on this for quite awhile now. And it isn't even a matter of adjustment on the low's track either for the cities to score. Farther south track means that we are getting a colder press of air but that in turn means a further weakening of the low and it's ability to strengthen thus lower rates to overcome the warm 925's to the surface. As depicted on the models at this point I don't expect nor believe that anyone, outside of those on the PA line, are really in the running for anything more then some very light slushy accumulations at best. Still am liking the window roughly centered on day 9. Get that general look inside of 5 days and we may be talking for the general region. Agree. Its just the idea we are talking the beginning of the second week of April. Decent chance of something significant for the mountains and maybe even the Piedmont, but accumulating snow for the coastal plain is difficult at best in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 how's the unicorn storm looking? (not talking Monday, thats silly and wont do much if anything). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 how's the unicorn storm looking? (not talking Monday, thats silly and wont do much if anything). Euro looks good for Sunday night...monday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: My little pony time frame still looks good. I wouldn't dismiss Monday mornings event. I could see far northern tier getting a couple inches. Best rates look to be early morning which helps ...if it hits I agree about Monday....The spring thermo gradient can produce a decent precip stripe without a potent system. 12z mon ...Low 60's in SE VA and low 30's across NMD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 23 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Great point ..and qpf could increase as we near I just looked and the euro gives us a half inch of liquid. Gfs is about. 35. Interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 14 hours ago, psuhoffman said: People complain too much lately. Not talking about you Zen, your comment was innocuous. But no matter what there is always someone... it's too hot cold warm wet dry snowy not snowy!!! My god it's insane. We are in a pretty good spot. We get at least 75 sunny 60-85 degree days most years. That's pretty nice. I never feel like we got that long without a day that's nice to be out. And I never feel we have a year where we had no outdoor days. Plus we get more big snowstorms then most other plus we get some decent severe. This is a pretty interesting and nice area for weather so these debs are just Please explain to me how DC is a better weather town than Raleigh. The only spot we'd get them is snow, but they smoke us in tropical which more than makes up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 Discuss the discussion.... northern trends continues....a few days ago...this was a southern slider. Now its wetter and snowier..could would see a sloppy inch or two before the sun comes up Monday morning. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 Raleigh doesn't get cold enough in winter. And it stays hot a little too long. *A lot too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 I don't see why not.. it's nice outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 14 minutes ago, Subtropics said: Please explain to me how DC is a better weather town than Raleigh. The only spot we'd get them is snow, but they smoke us in tropical which more than makes up for it. We crush them in snow. And it generally gets hotter and for longer down there, which if you don't like heat and humidity, is another plus for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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