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March Mid/Long Range Disco 3


WxUSAF

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14 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

We're close to the Appalachian Trail.....so just toss your keg on a towable sled and snowshoe your way over. We'll build a nice big bonfire out back and I'll show you how to Jebride an ATV in a snowstorm like a true West Virginian (yeah we did a slight mod on the traditional Jebwalk to better fit the terrain and add some local flavor). 

Back to the models -- we need to combine our energies to get this to sub-120hrs. In addition to CAPE/Amped/cae and other guys in this thread, HM and Cranky have both noted the potential in the upcoming period, but all the various pieces are probably going to drive the models crazy for a while (as we've frequently seen this year already). The nice thing about this threat is at least we are coming off a moderately decent late event hit last week and the kids got a good couple of sledding days in. So anything we get now is just gravy. 

And I think I figured out what happened to the Euro -- funding was tight, so they just grabbed the old unused code from the previous version of the NAM and merged that in to create the new Euro. I don't think I've truly been NAM'ed all year, but I've been Euro'ed more than once. 

Yeah when HM mentions a threat, its definitely worth watching. Someone is gonna get shellacked REALLY good in the Mid Atlantic. I think it was HM who mentioned Heather Archambault. Uh-oh, better get those Sierra Mountain snowblowers tuned up.........

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39 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

What a storm parade thru next weekend on the 6z Gfs. No shortage of tracking . My money is on that the area sees snow . Some real monster hits showing up on ensembles..no time to dissect but the pattern looks real anomalous for April. 

Paging Showmethesnow 

The 0z GEFS and EPS look pretty decent. Its still hard to take this very seriously, especially since the more "legit" threats are towards/beyond day 10. I mean, its APRIL!!

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

What a storm parade thru next weekend on the 6z Gfs. No shortage of tracking . My money is on that the area sees snow . Some real monster hits showing up on ensembles..no time to dissect but the pattern looks real anomalous for April. 

Paging Showmethesnow 

Almost posted something this morning. Though I can see the possibilities inside of 10 days I am not really high on the prospects at this time. But I do reserve the right to change my opinion for around day 6 or so if the models begin trending favorably on some features.  Now the window around day 10 (give or take a day or so) has my interest somewhat. All three models have potential through that period and what it will most likely come down to is how they handle the extension of the pv in the general 50/50 region. If we are going to get snow that is the most likely window IMO.

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2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

What a storm parade thru next weekend on the 6z Gfs. No shortage of tracking . My money is on that the area sees snow . Some real monster hits showing up on ensembles..no time to dissect but the pattern looks real anomalous for April. 

Paging Showmethesnow 

I'm not 100% what kind of "tracking" there is for events that will almost certainly be nothing of significance other than anomalous chill with associated precip.

I mean...I wouldn't bet my house on it or anything, but I also wouldn't be totally surprised if well northern and elevated areas see some slushy accumulation at some point. The rest of would only deal with some mangled flakes at the very most. Pointless as that is.

To each their own, of course!

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Would prefer not to see PSU posting more pics of 12" snow, or see another beach-blizzard, while I stare at my bare-ground.  Had more than enough of that already.  Just give me a couple more nights of mid-20s to give me 2 more weeks before the start of mowing season and keep any potential snows tracking north of NY.

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On 3/27/2018 at 4:32 PM, losetoa6 said:

Up this way I remember.. 83 ( just a kid) ,96, 2007, 2014 and I know there were others . Also several examples in the (Ludlum) books covering 1600s - 1900.

Palm Sunday storm was Mar 30th I believe 

 

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Just remembered 82,84 and 97..add them to the list 

You got my curiosity up, so I did some looking through the archives- it is an equal chance here for snow in April. Records from 1980-2017 for April, 37 years. 12 years had nada, zippo. 11 years had measurable snow and 14 years recorded a T. Latest I've had a measurable snow was April 22 of 1993 with 0.5 inch. Got to venture into May for last T, the 7&8th of 1989, granted just flurries in the air, but still impressive. Earliest recorded measurable was the 10-10-1979 event with 7 inches. Edit- this is also earliest snow period, including T's, just wanted to make sure.......

 

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19 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yea..79 gave 2-4" up this way talking to neighbors a few years ago about that event . Incredible really.

I was a kid living up there then. It was pretty amazing, and big time power outages with the trees still fully leafed. That came as a total surprise too. Forecast was rain and temps in the 40s.

Os were in the world series during that time too. That didn't end well.

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

You answered it in the bolded...and add anomalous pattern and it's very much trackable..imo. .because its what i do and many others do on this weather board..we track.  We all know it's hard to get accumulating snow in April but the upcoming pattern suggests it's possible this year .:)

Hey, I might track it just for the entertainment...I find just seeing flakes in April to be absolutely hilarious! Lol Folks looking around for Spring and then...snow! :lol: This winter may have been one of the worst in terms of missed storms, but there certainly has been some interesting and entertaining moments! 

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Yea..79 gave 2-4" up this way talking to neighbors a few years ago about that event . Incredible really.

10-10-79 gave northern Calvert 2-3 inches.  No one could believe it.

All this pattern means to me is a cold, rainy April weekend next week.  Boooo!  Another snowless winter followed by a cold spring.

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3 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Would prefer not to see PSU posting more pics of 12" snow, or see another beach-blizzard, while I stare at my bare-ground.  Had more than enough of that already.  Just give me a couple more nights of mid-20s to give me 2 more weeks before the start of mowing season and keep any potential snows tracking north of NY.

It was 17" get it straight 

5 hours ago, mappy said:

april. snow. 

 

tumblr_o5ecpcAaNS1ts598co2_500.gif

I've had accumulating snow in April several times. Never more then a few inches but not because it wasn't cold enough they were all just weak pidly systems. Time up a storm with cold it can happen. It's not easy to do that in April but it's possible especially up here. 

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What are y'all doing. It's about to be April this weekend and y'all WANT snow? This is horrible. It's like the spring that will never come. Please END THIS MISERY and give us FREAKIN even just 60s for crying out loud. There isn't a place that is less enjoyable than March 1 to April 1 than DC, and now it looks like this is getting prolonged at least until mid month. 

I'm loosing my mind and y'all have a problem. Snow sucks not sure what the obsession is 'round here with snow and cold. Go outside with your families and enjoy a warm breeze for once. Dam! We better get a 6 week stretch of 95+ temps and 75+ dews to make up for this.

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9 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

What are y'all doing. It's about to be April this weekend and y'all WANT snow? This is horrible. It's like the spring that will never come. Please END THIS MISERY and give us FREAKIN even just 60s for crying out loud. There isn't a place that is less enjoyable than March 1 to April 1 than DC, and now it looks like this is getting prolonged at least until mid month. 

I'm loosing my mind and y'all have a problem. Snow sucks not sure what the obsession is 'round here with snow and cold. Go outside with your families and enjoy a warm breeze for once. Dam!

Sadly there is not much gradient between the seasons anymore. I think that's why you are left with the cold or heat options, which are both miserable.

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Are you jumping right now? :lol: 

I'm about to punt spring, if that's a thing. We get one day in the 70s as a tease and then the next two weeks are rainy, cloudy and averages more comparable to late february. Yeah I'm pissed.

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4 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

Sadly there is not much gradient between the seasons anymore. I think that's why you are left the cold or heat options, which are both miserable.

People say DC has a good spring, but our spring sucks. I'll admit our fall is nice. The best spring is in the Tallahassee to Atlanta to Raleigh section of the country. Up here March is the worst month of the year and April falls on the crummy side often as well (Cloud, Rainy/Wet, Muddy and often chilly). Then it'll flip to hot (which I'm fine with), but DC does not have a good spring at all. Got to go south for that.

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2 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

People say DC has a good spring, but our spring sucks. I'll admit our fall is nice. The best spring is in the Tallahassee to Atlanta to Raleigh section of the country. Up here March is the worst month of the year and April falls on the crummy side often as well. Then it'll flip to hot (which I'm fine with), but DC does not have a good spring at all. Got to go south for that.

Highly variable. It's impossible to have a warm spring with such ridiculous wall-to-wall arctic blocking. Our cold ends when the PV runs out of steam. That's how it was in April 2012.

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14 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

What are y'all doing. It's about to be April this weekend and y'all WANT snow? This is horrible. It's like the spring that will never come. Please END THIS MISERY and give us FREAKIN even just 60s for crying out loud. There isn't a place that is less enjoyable than March 1 to April 1 than DC, and now it looks like this is getting prolonged at least until mid month. 

I'm loosing my mind and y'all have a problem. Snow sucks not sure what the obsession is 'round here with snow and cold. Go outside with your families and enjoy a warm breeze for once. Dam! We better get a 6 week stretch of 95+ temps and 75+ dews to make up for this.

We have a problem? It's not us having a meltdown about weather being the weather. ;)

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12 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

Sadly there is not much gradient between the seasons anymore. I think that's why you are left with the cold or heat options, which are both miserable.

Seasons are about what I have come to expect from 50+ years in this region. Many years having very little separation from season to season. Others don't. So to suggest that this is out of the norm is ridiculous.

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3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Seasons are about what I have come to expect from 50+ years in this region. Many years having very little separation from season to season. Others don't. So to suggest that this is out of the norm is ridiculous.

Gotta keep in mind I have only lived in the mid-atlantic for 17 years and I don't live in DC which does spring much better than KWWD. From my perspective it definitely seems moderated and extreme lately. We broke some heat records in February. This is just a reaction to that. Law of averages.

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28 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

What are y'all doing. It's about to be April this weekend and y'all WANT snow? This is horrible. It's like the spring that will never come. Please END THIS MISERY and give us FREAKIN even just 60s for crying out loud. There isn't a place that is less enjoyable than March 1 to April 1 than DC, and now it looks like this is getting prolonged at least until mid month. 

I'm loosing my mind and y'all have a problem. Snow sucks not sure what the obsession is 'round here with snow and cold. Go outside with your families and enjoy a warm breeze for once. Dam! We better get a 6 week stretch of 95+ temps and 75+ dews to make up for this.

I fear for your mental well being.  Especially if the Euro has a monster storm D9 or something.  

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1 hour ago, Subtropics said:

What are y'all doing. It's about to be April this weekend and y'all WANT snow? This is horrible. It's like the spring that will never come. Please END THIS MISERY and give us FREAKIN even just 60s for crying out loud. There isn't a place that is less enjoyable than March 1 to April 1 than DC, and now it looks like this is getting prolonged at least until mid month. 

I'm loosing my mind and y'all have a problem. Snow sucks not sure what the obsession is 'round here with snow and cold. Go outside with your families and enjoy a warm breeze for once. Dam! We better get a 6 week stretch of 95+ temps and 75+ dews to make up for this.

We will get plenty of warm days after April 15 or so. There is a limit to how long this can go even with an anomalous pattern. The sun will win eventually. So chill out. 

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