March Mid/Long Range Disco 3

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The useless snow map that includes more of the sub forum- you darn DC centric people! Yes you, Cobalt. lol.

lol

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Its super unimpressive. Lets be real here.

Anything involving snow in April is unimpressive

is it possible to have negative ratios?

[CAPE]

Hey we have 2 wintery "threats" for April. Snow tv is the bar at this point. Any accumulation at all is a bonus.

[Ji]

Its super unimpressive. Lets be real here.

I see purples not too far south though!

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Its super unimpressive. Lets be real here.

I see purples not too far south though!

Oh, I was talking about the first thing on Monday.   Friday thing is interesting...but...April

[CAPE]

Just now, Ji said:

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Its super unimpressive. Lets be real here.

I see purples not too far south though!

Model error at range. We know this. It will rain in those places in April 99% of the time.. Hell, if it shifts north it will probably rain most places around here too.

[CAPE]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Oh, I was talking about the first thing on Monday.   Friday thing is interesting...but...April

Yeah late week has more potential. The Monday deal is weak af. And yes, its April. The set up is a pretty good one other than that small detail.

[Ji]

Model error at range. We know this. It will rain in those places in April 99% of the time.. Hell, if it shifts north it will probably rain most places around here too.

That 850 is really cold. It's all about timing and rates in April but later in the week looks interesting

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah late week has more potential. The Monday deal is weak af. And yes, its April. The set up is a pretty good one other than that small detail.

I wish this was even 2 weeks ago...

[Ji]

I wish this was even 2 weeks ago...

I think Philly got a 14 inch storm once in April

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Model error at range. We know this. It will rain in those places in April 99% of the time.. Hell, if it shifts north it will probably rain most places around here too.

That 850 is really cold. It's all about timing and rates in April but later in the week looks interesting

It's April.  We aren't New England.  

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Model error at range. We know this. It will rain in those places in April 99% of the time.. Hell, if it shifts north it will probably rain most places around here too.

That 850 is really cold. It's all about timing and rates in April but later in the week looks interesting

I have posted ITT that I do like the h5 look for late week. Its not impossible..

[Cobalt]

The Euro is crazy.. It has temps during the day on Thursday maxing out at 35/36 degrees, even with just light snow falling

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

The Euro is crazy.. It has temps during the day on Thursday maxing out at 35/36 degrees, even with just light snow falling

Well, EJ did tell us the Euro has lost it..

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Well, EJ did tell us the Euro has lost it..

Ok now I really think the Euro has lost it..

[WxUSAF]

#snowtown

[NorthArlington101]

18z GFS is in... lol





If we miss to the south twice in April I may need to be double reaped though.

[Cobalt]

[MountainGeek]

28 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Well, EJ did tell us the Euro has lost it..

It's half the model it used to be...... and if it verifies I will blast me some STP during the event.

[Amped]

Euro 192 at H5 is impressive, very close to a KU storm.  Unfortunately it's 192 so it maybe nowhere close.

[MountainGeek]

23 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

If we miss to the south twice in April I may need to be double reaped though.

We all know we're too far north to expect good snow in April.....I think early May is going to be our window. 

[Qaanaaq]

41 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

18z GFS is in... lol





If we miss to the south twice in April I may need to be double reaped though.

Frankly, it's been the South's year (farther south and east than here- (we have 5 inches total this year- all from the last event)). Proud to be a part of the DC snow-hole, I tell ya what

 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

April 3,1915 dumped a foot at 0 elevation at the beaches ..so its certainly possible .  just saying 

Sure it is possible, just not likely lol. But hey, that h5 look.. Not too shabby. Literally everything would have to break right for a storm that could produce several inches of snow, somewhere outside of the western highlands. Time of day would obviously be a key factor.

[CAPE]

This sure as heck is not a bad h5 look leading up to a potential event. Impressive actually given we are in Spring. Baseball season and stuff. Again it must be stated- too bad we are looking at the first week of April with this pattern.

 

[cae]

GEPS meteogram showed a good signal for the time period around April 7th.  I had to look.

Of course anyone expecting that to happen is probably going to be disappointed.  We all know it's coming north.

[Jandurin]

April 7 snowstorm gonna happen

Reminds me of my dad showing me newspaper articles of April 7 blizzard in New York

[Jebman]

8 hours ago, Amped said:

Lol first orange snow, now blue. 

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/25/world/orange-snow-russia-trnd/index.html

I saw that lol.

The snow that we will get with the potential April Blizzard of 2018 will be bluish, because of the very high water content.

[Jebman]

3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

This sure as heck is not a bad h5 look leading up to a potential event. Impressive actually given we are in Spring. Baseball season and stuff. Again it must be stated- too bad we are looking at the first week of April with this pattern.

 

Higher terrain stands a damn good chance. We all might have to go to Mountain Geek's and Clueless's 'hoods, to dig em out.

Who's bringin' the stout?

[Scraff]

 I’m all about stout in the snow. I’ll bring!  Last week I was drinking cans of Hysteria 25th Hour Imperial  Coffee Oatmeal Stout on the sledding hill.  My kids were proud...said neither of them! Oh wait. Are we in storm mode?  

[MountainGeek]

1 hour ago, Jebman said:

Higher terrain stands a damn good chance. We all might have to go to Mountain Geek's and Clueless's 'hoods, to dig em out.

Who's bringin' the stout?

We're close to the Appalachian Trail.....so just toss your keg on a towable sled and snowshoe your way over. We'll build a nice big bonfire out back and I'll show you how to Jebride an ATV in a snowstorm like a true West Virginian (yeah we did a slight mod on the traditional Jebwalk to better fit the terrain and add some local flavor). 

Back to the models -- we need to combine our energies to get this to sub-120hrs. In addition to CAPE/Amped/cae and other guys in this thread, HM and Cranky have both noted the potential in the upcoming period, but all the various pieces are probably going to drive the models crazy for a while (as we've frequently seen this year already). The nice thing about this threat is at least we are coming off a moderately decent late event hit last week and the kids got a good couple of sledding days in. So anything we get now is just gravy. 

And I think I figured out what happened to the Euro -- funding was tight, so they just grabbed the old unused code from the previous version of the NAM and merged that in to create the new Euro. I don't think I've truly been NAM'ed all year, but I've been Euro'ed more than once.