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March Mid/Long Range Disco 3


WxUSAF

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Tried my hardest not to bite....ignored multiple control and ens runs showing believable scenarios. Figured it would all fade into the sunset of the climo door slamming. But here I am...first post in days...contemplating the possibilities. Heh, anyone got some benzos laying around? I need to shut this down before getting sucked in. 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Tried my hardest not to bite....ignored multiple control and ens runs showing believable scenarios. Figured it would all fade into the sunset of the climo door slamming. But here I am...first post in days...contemplating the possibilities. Heh, anyone got some benzos laying around? I need to shut this down before getting sucked in. 

It's crazy but it's definitely showing across multiple pieces of guidance. It seems like a gradient pattern you would see in February. 

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Tried my hardest not to bite....ignored multiple control and ens runs showing believable scenarios. Figured it would all fade into the sunset of the climo door slamming. But here I am...first post in days...contemplating the possibilities. Heh, anyone got some benzos laying around? I need to shut this down before getting sucked in. 

Believe it. YOU ARE GETTING HEAVY APRIL SNOW. You have the Climo too.

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8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm ready for warmth but the extended winter doesn't bother me because I know the warm season will come soon no matter what. If we get an extra month of cold weather big deal it will be warm May through September regardless of pattern. 

March and April have always been throw away months for me as far as outdoor activities/chores. With the transitioning of seasons we are almost always fighting wet and my yard does not handle wet well. So cold or warm doesn't really matter to me. Unless the cold means snow and I will take that anytime even in April.

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1 hour ago, mappy said:

guess im holding off on making a snowfall map for another week or so. 

I'm at 35" exactly which is pretty close to my median (not mean) snowfall 

i know we didn't like how we got there...march snow does suck compared to dec to feb...but most areas actually did eek their way close to their median snowfall this year. 

A bad way to look at that is were no longer "due" for a bounce back year next year. Lol

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53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm at 35" exactly which is pretty close to my median (not mean) snowfall 

i know we didn't like how we got there...march snow does suck compared to dec to feb...but most areas actually did eek their way close to their median snowfall this year. 

A bad way to look at that is were no longer "due" for a bounce back year next year. Lol

Nah, I think we still are. Even though my yard got about 15" (I believe the BWI average is 18"), we still missed a lot of storms...we are still due. I don't count last week's snow for my yard, tbh (4.8 inches at best...so technically still no warning-level event that has verified since 2016). So yeah...most of us are still due, lol

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2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Nah, I think we still are. Even though my yard got about 15" (I believe the BWI average is 18"), we still missed a lot of storms...we are still due. I don't count last week's snow for my yard, tbh (4.8 inches at best...so technically still no warning-level event that has verified since 2016). So yeah...most of us are still due, lol

BWI mean is around 20 but their median is 15.2" over the last 30 years.  As much as we hate to admit it this ended up being a normal winter wrt snowfall in MOST places. The western areas still ended up way below their median. Some places south and east ended up over it.  Much of the middle zones ended up right around it. 

Problem is our "typical" median snowfall winter is pretty crappy around here. Then add in how it came early and late and how we watched others cash in all year and I don't deny it sucked in many ways. It's not in my list of favorites. But the numbers are what the numbers are. 

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47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

BWI mean is around 20 but their median is 15.2" over the last 30 years.  As much as we hate to admit it this ended up being a normal winter wrt snowfall in MOST places. The western areas still ended up way below their median. Some places south and east ended up over it.  Much of the middle zones ended up right around it. 

Problem is our "typical" median snowfall winter is pretty crappy around here. Then add in how it came early and late and how we watched others cash in all year and I don't deny it sucked in many ways. It's not in my list of favorites. But the numbers are what the numbers are. 

Numerically, I guess this would be on the "top end" of La Niña winters overall...but that doesn't make this one feel any better. For me, this has been one of the worst in my brief 27 years in terms of missed opportunities. I mean, when is the last time we missed 3 Nor'easters? Lol

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17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Numerically, I guess this would be on the "top end" of La Niña winters overall...but that doesn't make this one feel any better. For me, this has been one of the worst in my brief 27 years in terms of missed opportunities. I mean, when is the last time we missed 3 Nor'easters? Lol

2018 I think.

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5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Precisely...We can only go up from here, lol Hard to fathom another winter topping this one in terms of missed opportunities. It's been absolutely awful, and I certainly won't forget it! Time for a bounce-back...

1994 crushed just north of us over and over while the D.C. area mostly got ice.  2001 was even worse then this year with epic coastals hitting NJ north with very little here. 2009 and 2011 and 2013 and 2017 were also years where just north or east if us had significantly better winters.  It happens. 

We could also get a year like 2002 or 2008 or 2012 where it's not snowing anywhere because the whole continent is a blowtorch all winter. Never assume it can't get worse. We have had years with under 1" lol. 

But odds would favor a better year next year but not by as much as some think. It's pretty random year to year. 

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33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

1994 crushed just north of us over and over while the D.C. area mostly got ice.  2001 was even worse then this year with epic coastals hitting NJ north with very little here. 2009 and 2011 and 2013 and 2017 were also years where just north or east if us had significantly better winters.  It happens. 

We could also get a year like 2002 or 2008 or 2012 where it's not snowing anywhere because the whole continent is a blowtorch all winter. Never assume it can't get worse. We have had years with under 1" lol. 

But odds would favor a better year next year but not by as much as some think. It's pretty random year to year. 

For my own emotional sanity...a blowtorch is less abusive than a teaser, lol At least in a blowtorch, you already know you're not close. Whereas a winter like this? Infuriating (not that I want a blowtorch, obviously...but it's not as frustrating bevause there aren't expectations crushed by close misses). So when I say "worst", I think it's pretty high on the list in that regard.

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