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March Mid/Long Range Disco 3


WxUSAF

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m actively trying to erase the memories of that disaster of a winter.

Lies!

they way this crappy chill has been the maps will probably hold true.   if there was a spring summer panic room i would be jumping.  

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48 minutes ago, motsco said:

they way this crappy chill has been the maps will probably hold true.   if there was a spring summer panic room i would be jumping.  

Interesting.  A reverse panic room.  I forget some like it hot.  Some feel the heat and decide that they can’t go on.  That’s me. 

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20 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Interesting.  A reverse panic room.  I forget some like it hot.  Some feel the heat and decide that they can’t go on.  That’s me. 

For me it’s “sh*t or get off the pot”. Worst outcome is what we get now- day after day of 40’s and wind. I’m down for an April snowstorm- if not, then upper 60’s and sun sounds good. Actually I feel the same about the winter months too.

It’s very rare to even reach 90’s in April anyway- that’s usually a daily record.

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1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

For me it’s “sh*t or get off the pot”. Worst outcome is what we get now- day after day of 40’s and wind. I’m down for an April snowstorm- if not, then upper 60’s and sun sounds good. Actually I feel the same about the winter months too.

It’s very rare to even reach 90’s in April anyway- that’s usually a daily record.

bla bla bla. i don’t know what’s worse 20 with a dew of 0 and wind from the north , or cloudy gray drizzling damp 40 bla with dew in the 30 from the east. yuk. give me 90/90 i would never complain. lol. 

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12 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:


Where r u seeing this? Ens have been generally locked in or trending towards sustaining the neg NAO ridge even if weakish. I did see the GEFS goes neg to pos for a brief period end of week 1 of April before trying to re-establish neg departures toward the end of the run. Also, temps are overall well BN aside from a transient few AN days at the tail end of March. Pattern stinks if you are looking for sustained spring weather. GEFS even signal a gradient pattern with waves undercutting the region. Elevation and NW areas at the very least are likely not done just yet irt frozen threats.

You are right. They are trending. Today is different now on models. I would expect a +NAO April ~70% chance just based on mathematics of 12 months/years and decadal trend and Winter pattern. But that's not even per calculations or a negative departure, it's the NAO region having coldest-based 500mb anomalies in Northern Hemisphere, which is what's showing up on models. April could also be a good severe weather month fwiw

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There is really cold air showing up on models, moving into the Upper Midwest (-30 to -40 depatures). Tendency says warmer trend, but there could be a small snow event as a burst of that makes it east in one of the many progression waves. I'd worry more about storms being ripped apart in the Great Lake's and Tenn Valley in pattern

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6 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Technically, my wish was for spring to arrive and no re-freeze. Spring hasn't arrived. This is still winter. This is as crappy as it being 90+ in early October, something else that hugely sucks.

Spring will probably still arrive someday.

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14 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

Spring will probably still arrive someday.

Look, I get to be less than thrilled with this delayed start to the spring. Yes, it will warm-up. The issue is whether we shoot from 51 for highs straight to 87 for highs and basically skip...the nice part of spring. The holdover of this kind of cold pretty much blows from my point of view, and I am probably not alone in that. I know some of this board are extreme cold weather zealots, and some more of this board are extreme heat loving zealots, but I guess I fall into a part of this board that kinda really enjoys seasonal temps (and working in the yard, and planting things, and what not). And right now, this delay of seasonal temps is crappy.

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20 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

The average high right now is 57 for my area. Even if we were at average, it'd still be relatively chilly (as compared to 70).

If it's still like this April 15, I'll join you in grumping, but it feels slightly early.

Upper 50s would be heaven. We haven't been above 60 the entire month of March. That's extremely unusual, see the CWG article yesterday. Even after the respite Thursday, we go right back to colder than normal past the weekend. It's gotten to me.

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BWI has not had an above average day since March 4 and is currently tied with March 2014 at 38.5 degrees (which was the 11th coldest March). So top ten coldest March could be possible.

For the second year in a row, March will finish colder than February there.

If we get a trackable event in April I want rights to create the thread- calling it first!

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7 minutes ago, frd said:

I think more snow is coming 

 

 

Have been noticing that as well (archambault). Really would take something extraordinary to get something (besides some mood flakes) down into the cities and south and east at this point. North and west may still be in the game for a little something though.

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2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Have been noticing that as well (archambault). Really would take something extraordinary to get something (besides some mood flakes) down into the cities and south and east at this point. North and west may still be in the game for a little something though.

Yup.  We’re done. 

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8 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

FWIW...CMC for the second run in a row isshowing a wave coming in early next week bringing snow from northern VA to the Northeast. It’s the Canadian, but interesting how this cold pattern will not give out.

If I remember correctly, 2009/2010 had a winter storm way late in the year due to the Negative NAO.. So not impossible,

 

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15 hours ago, motsco said:

bla bla bla. i don’t know what’s worse 20 with a dew of 0 and wind from the north , or cloudy gray drizzling damp 40 bla with dew in the 30 from the east. yuk. give me 90/90 i would never complain. lol. 

We need to move man. I'm looking at places in North Carolina as we speak.

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22 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Correct. NE has a legit shot.  We don’t. I don’t even remember the latest date for accumultibg snow in the cities. 

Yeah it doesn't happen often. I don't recall the year, but there was a big low that retrograded SW from the NE and produced 2-3" here in early April. It occurred in the evening until about midnight, and by morning it was mostly melted. That is the only one that I can remember with actual accumulating snow in early April since I have lived in the lowlands.

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