Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,610
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

March Mid/Long Range Disco 3


WxUSAF

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
21 minutes ago, Sparky said:

I don't mind a cool summer as long as it comes with wetness/thunderstorms.

Is there some evidence of a cool summer? It would be great but they seem rare around here.  Maybe my idea of cool is 70s.  Probably not happening. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Is there some evidence of a cool summer? It would be great but they seem rare around here.  Maybe my idea of cool is 70s.  Probably not happening. 

Aren't Ninas strengthening to Ninos indicative of cool summers? At least that's what I've heard. After all Summer of 2009 was a Nina to Nino. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Is there some evidence of a cool summer? It would be great but they seem rare around here.  Maybe my idea of cool is 70s.  Probably not happening. 

70s in mid-summer is 10+ degrees below normal highs in DC. It’s not cool relative to other seasons, but it sure is cool relative to normal. You’re simply not going to see that more than 10 or so times from June-August (and most of those would be rainy days with fairly high minimums) unless Pinatubo were to erupt again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

I'm fine with getting warm enough for early season severe. But yeah..90s in April...DO NOT WANT. I don't have any desire to go bigly on heat early. 

Unfortunately DC is a Boss with regard to early heat waves, we set the Bar for places like Austin, Texas, lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

+NAO is showing up on medium and long term models. This, I think, would signal that we have not left the 5-year +NAO regime o and lower chances for a cold Winter 18-19. (Maybe like 60% chance next Winter is +NAO)

Where r u seeing this? Ens have been generally locked in or trending towards sustaining the neg NAO ridge even if weakish. I did see the GEFS goes neg to pos for a brief period end of week 1 of April before trying to re-establish neg departures toward the end of the run. Also, temps are overall well BN aside from a transient few AN days at the tail end of March. Pattern stinks if you are looking for sustained spring weather. GEFS even signal a gradient pattern with waves undercutting the region. Elevation and NW areas at the very least are likely not done just yet irt frozen threats.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, Sparky said:

I don't mind a cool summer as long as it comes with wetness/thunderstorms.

may you rot on board your hot, stifling airplane as all the thunderstorms you are wishing for this summer keep you grounded on the tarmac instead of heading to some exotic location for your vacation!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/23/2018 at 6:44 PM, BristowWx said:

I get depressed about it. Plus we didn’t get shellacked really.  But I must forge on until November.  We wait so long for winter and it’s so short.  

Winter was long as heck this year. It usually is around these parts. What are you talking about? Literally it has been cold from early November until now and it looks cold for at least another few weeks...

 

It's Freaking almost april and it's 45 degrees at noon... Is it too much to ask to have the average high be 60 March 1st and and 70 by April 1st?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

Winter was long as heck this year. It usually is around these parts. What are you talking about? Literally it has been cold from early November until now and it looks cold for at least another few weeks...

 

It's Freaking almost april and it's 45 degrees at noon... Is it too much to ask to have the average high be 60 March 1st and and 70 by April 1st?

In the DC area and the mid-Atlantic, yes. We don't live in Raleigh or Atlanta.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:


Where r u seeing this? Ens have been generally locked in or trending towards sustaining the neg NAO ridge even if weakish. I did see the GEFS goes neg to pos for a brief period end of week 1 of April before trying to re-establish neg departures toward the end of the run. Also, temps are overall well BN aside from a transient few AN days at the tail end of March. Pattern stinks if you are looking for sustained spring weather. GEFS even signal a gradient pattern with waves undercutting the region. Elevation and NW areas at the very least are likely not done just yet irt frozen threats.

Looks chilly for the next few weeks. I wouldn't be shocked if the northern tier has accumulating snow sometime in the next 15 days. Probably nothing major but very below normal for April. You can the confluence set up to our Northeast with energy rolling out of the rockies.

It's a Darn shame this pattern didn't set up in late January instead of late February/ Early March...lol

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_42-2.png

gfs_z500_vort_us_43.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

51 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah pretty nice looking h5 pattern- if only it were a month or 2 ago.

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_43.thumb.png.00412dd448b9497cd181a6649d62ba91.png

Well, we certainly are not going to roll right from Winter to summer this year it seems.  I have been wonder a lot about the summer and the Pacific and what is in store. Meanwhile,  the decline of the solar cycle continues. So, you have to think as well to any significant base changes in the years ahead with the NAO, and how melting sea ice, the AMO, Northern Atlantic SST profiles, QBO and other factors will play in.  Not to mention we are due statiistically for a blockbuster winter in our parts soon.  :-) 

To me at least it seems the winters here have been Pac driven lately, but there is no denying the NAO domain effected us in March, maybe it was a warning shot.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Fozz said:

In the DC area and the mid-Atlantic, yes. We don't live in Raleigh or Atlanta.

So unfortunate. I checked and you were spot on. I really do think Central North Carolina to the coast is my ideal climate and only 5 hours from DC but a legit month ahead climotologically. I may have to move which would mean I switch to the southern subforum...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, frd said:

Well, we certainly are not going to roll right from Winter to summer this year it seems.  I have been wonder a lot about the summer and the Pacific and what is in store. Meanwhile,  the decline of the solar cycle continues. So, you have to think as well to any significant base changes in the years ahead with the NAO, and how melting sea ice, the AMO, Northern Atlantic SST profiles, QBO and other factors will play in.  Not to mention we are due statiistically for a blockbuster winter in our parts soon.  :-) 

To me at least it seems the winters here have been Pac driven lately, but there is no denying the NAO domain effected us in March, maybe it was a warning shot.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I would love an anomalous Maine-like summer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Chris78 said:

Looks chilly for the next few weeks. I wouldn't be shocked if the northern tier has accumulating snow sometime in the next 15 days. Probably nothing major but very below normal for April. You can the confluence set up to our Northeast with energy rolling out of the rockies.

It's a Darn shame this pattern didn't set up in late January instead of late February/ Early March...lol

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_42-2.png

gfs_z500_vort_us_43.png

With the way this winter has gone, even if it had, we still woulda found a way to miss 4 Nor'easters, lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...