kurtstack Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I don't know how people can still say the euro is such a consistent model - it has gone from Miami to Charlottesville with this storm in 24 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, this one is trending well across all guidance. That trend probably isn't done yet. We can probably completely rule out an overhead or west track rain storm at this point. The important stuff isn't really happening until d4 still so the lead offers plenty of time for adjustments. 12z eps is an important run. If there is an uptick of phased/amplified solutions then it probably getting close to game on here. what i like is that it can still trend better versus a bunch of bad runs and a huge hit, followed by more trending of one of the pieces that may result in a not so ideal solution. two things working in our favor are less time before the event each run and the fact that it could still get a little better. still gotta be cautious though of moving targets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If you toggle the vort panels you can see the euro sped up the trailing shortwave by about 150-200 miles from 0z. One more shift like that and fireworks go off. We're in good shape. I said this yesterday, I feel really good about this one I can't say I've felt this way about ANY previous event t̶h̶i̶s̶ ̶y̶e̶a̶r̶ the last two years. Fixed! (Unless ya felt good before the sleet storm last year, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Seems that the euro bias of holding energy back for too long is what we are seeing. Closer things get the more the euro adjusts to what will happen. Not to say that the euro will go totally full GFS but every step it takes to the GFS is important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, kurtstack said: I don't know how people can still say the euro is such a consistent model - it has gone from Miami to Charlottesville with this storm in 24 hours... Well the perception of models probably depends on exactly what you're looking at. I haven't checked any verification scores...but it probably depends on what level you look at (I know a lot of scoring looks at H5) and also the area you look in. I wonder if it's been more accurate for their side of the Atlantic...after all - the Euro should probably be most accurate for the area it's primarily designed to serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, this one is trending well across all guidance. That trend probably isn't done yet. We can probably completely rule out an overhead or west track rain storm at this point. The important stuff isn't really happening until d4 still so the lead offers plenty of time for adjustments. 12z eps is an important run. If there is an uptick of phased/amplified solutions then it probably getting close to game on here. Never was really worried about a west track with this one. Didn't see how the 500's would allow that. Progressive and to the south has been my major concern. Euro made a big move away from that today I thought. Look on previous runs argued that we would need a spot on phase to get it to gain some latitude. Now I think even a partial/sloppy phase gets this up into the Baltimore region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, kurtstack said: I don't know how people can still say the euro is such a consistent model - it has gone from Miami to Charlottesville with this storm in 24 hours... people always says its not prone to wild swings run to run....have you guys watched it this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 hour ago, Scraff said: I’m now drinking at 12:40 on a Wednesday.... thinking about your pants...Jordache? Guess? Parachute Pants? I salute you, sir. Zubaz...but please gets my twitching pants out of your mind. And that beer looks awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, this one is trending well across all guidance. That trend probably isn't done yet. We can probably completely rule out an overhead or west track rain storm at this point. The important stuff isn't really happening until d4 still so the lead offers plenty of time for adjustments. 12z eps is an important run. If there is an uptick of phased/amplified solutions then it probably getting close to game on here. Strongly agree here. I am leaning towards more EPS members looking like the GFS OP/GEFS on its 12z run. Would be nice to see a few EPS members look like the UKMET though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ji said: people always says its not prone to wild swings run to run....have you guys watched it this week? IMO the GFS has been the one that hasn't really swung wildly this year. Sure there have been a couple times but usually even when it's wrong it holds tight or makes small adjustments up until game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: people always says its not prone to wild swings run to run....have you guys watched it this week? ALL ops jump around from d4+. Once we hit 72 hours, if the GFS/Euro are similar then whatever solution they show becomes very likely. I will say that the GFS has impressed me this year. It's done an admirable job in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, kurtstack said: I don't know how people can still say the euro is such a consistent model - it has gone from Miami to Charlottesville with this storm in 24 hours... I just doesnt usually make big swings. And when it does, like it did yesterday in losing the storm, it takes it's time coming back. Lets not forget the Euro had a pretty good vort pass for us back in it's Snday and Monday runs. Then it just completely lost the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ji said: people always says its not prone to wild swings run to run....have you guys watched it this week? Yeah, it’s not that way any more since the last update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Hopefully we get the same 10-16 inches NYC is getting today on Sunday-Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: ALL ops jump around from d4+. Once we hit 72 hours, if the GFS/Euro are similar then whatever solution they show becomes very likely. I will say that the GFS has impressed me this year. It's done an admirable job in general. The GFS has had a storm (generally a snowstorm) somewhere near our region, centered on or about Monday, every run for the last four days. That's really impressive. And it shows how loaded the pattern is for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ger said: Hopefully we get the same 10-16 inches NYC is getting today on Sunday-Monday Just multiply that by two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Ok guys....it has begun https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51060-march-11-12-potential-storm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Long range guidance has been hinting at this general time period for a while now. And it was just a matter of time before something popped. Still a ways to go but trends have been damn good today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Ok guys....it has begun https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51060-march-11-12-potential-storm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccsnowy Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 One of these things is not like the others... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, ccsnowy said: One of these things is not like the others... True but where is the UKmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif wow it shows the wrong pic so left it as a link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 58 minutes ago, ccsnowy said: One of these things is not like the others... True. One model has hardly budged for the past few days and the others are jumping all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 gfs gonna bring it home with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 nope, this one is still up for grabs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Day 10-15 on the EPS looks good. Hail Mary lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Day 10-15 on the EPS looks good. Hail Mary lol I thought this coming storm was the Hail Mary! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 5 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Day 10-15 on the EPS looks good. Hail Mary lol It always does. And it's always wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 I thought this coming storm was the Hail Mary!There was a penalty for pass interference on the 50/50 low . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Gfs march 21-22....miller A with 1040 high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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