psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Better than 12z...I'm telling yall, this is exactly where we want it...no joke I'm not mad at it. It's fine for this range I'm just observing trends. And I want an amped up bomb that gets to just off ocean city at 975 and sits there. And I want that at gametime not now. I'm not too worried about a cut. The flow is pretty suppressive for that. The more amped The better it will plow moisture into where it meets the resistance and dump on us. I can see a weak wave escaping. If it's amped up it will try to climb and get blocked and that's when we get destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Better than 12z...I'm telling yall, this is exactly where we want it...no joke I’ll take it. It’s the best look for many of us in some time. Juicy and cold enough. It’s damn near perfect actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Seriously impressive snow totals in central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 If anyone thinks 36-38N is getting a foot of snow in Mid march you're nuts. This is a great run for us. It will come north. 0 chance it verifies as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 6 days to nudge this north about 100 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, supernovasky said: 6 days to nudge this north about 100 miles. And for it to amp even more, stall off OC and nuke us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 No disappointment here. This has the makings of a unicorn storm no doubt. So the question is this. What day this week do we want see the this trend to bullseye and lock in? Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 18z GFS sounding from 6 days out? Why not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, Scraff said: No disappointment here. This has the makings of a unicorn storm no doubt. So the question is this. What day this week do we want see the this trend to bullseye and lock in? Thursday? Friday 12z. followed closely by a Happy Hour epic Nam'ing to drive the place into a frenzy. Yeah. Ive thought this through haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just like the past 2 noreasters...we probably wont have a good handle on dynamics and intensity till 48 hours. Look at how much more potent euro and nam are for Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 14 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 18z GFS sounding from 6 days out? Why not. Eh the juice is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Pretty massive storm after this one also. LOOKS COOL. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018030518/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_42.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 42 minutes ago, supernovasky said: 6 days to nudge this north about 100 miles. That's the funniest snow map I've ever seen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Liking the gefs.... ETA: Looks like some amped and tucked solutions in there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: Liking the gefs.... There's a 977 in there too. Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: There's a 977 in there too. Not bad Best look yet on gefs comparing last 2 days of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I'd say there is a pretty good precip signature on the GEFS lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 That's a sweet precip mean this far out.. edit: Ninja'd! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: That's the funniest snow map I've ever seen! Relax, the snow maps will volatilize and settle 96 hrs. pre event . We are still 6 days out. The latest GFS gives a Miller A and a major impact to Virginia. I am still a little concerned about HP placement to our north. Later data tonight and tomorrow will provide answers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Best look yet on gefs comparing last 2 days of runs. That's what I like to hear. At work doing my forecasts now, so I'll have to look later, but your word is pretty solid lol. Can't complain on that GFS run. H5 progression was much nicer than 12z. Models will bounce around a bit at this range. It was really close to something massive for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Best look yet on gefs comparing last 2 days of runs. I would think we start seeing the ops ramp up again. All 3 ensembles took big steps today. Great trends even if the ops didn't put out pretty snow maps today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 18z gefs is sweet as heck with low tracks and qpf...it's either a strong signal or group think of a wrong solution. Take you pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Yeah, the snow mean on the GEFS sorta explodes during the threat window. Probably a couple great hits in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: 18z gefs is sweet as heck with low tracks and qpf...it's either a strong signal or group think of a wrong solution. Take you pick. You're just gun-shy after late December's gefs runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I like the earlier panels with a lot of 995 lows over TN. Those have a habit of not missing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I know that the Euro and GFS Ensembles are on board, but are the other global models seeing this storm as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Yeah, the snow mean on the GEFS sorta explodes during the threat window. Probably a couple great hits in there Yup, its over 4” now in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: You're just gun-shy after late December's gefs runs. Nah, there's been so many other epic fails since then I barely remember those runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 13 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: You're just gun-shy after late December's gefs runs. I may be wrong but those late December runs weren’t really focused on one threat. This is obviously keying on one specific SV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 This will be a Saturday night deal if it keeps speeding up. Several inches by lunch Sunday at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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