WxUSAF Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 ^DT always hates the GFS. If the euro is a carbon copy of it he’ll be all in and crow how the goofus never saw it coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Interesting. Any thoughts? Who cares...He has two huge biases...hug the euro and hug anything that gives him snow. When the euro gives him snow....forget about it...no way he goes with anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Interesting. Any thoughts? Good point, I thought this was a Mid Atlantic event , why does it go NE as well ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: No matter the outcome, Euro took a step toward the GFS @96 Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Texas to Alabama for the same time frame since yesterday! Biggly change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 As shown temps would be more of an issue than portrayed D.C. would probably have to wait for low to be at least 50 miles east of D.C. Longitude before it would be snow. The cold air to the north is tepid but at least not nonexistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Euro is going to miss the phase. But the southern vort is stronger this run. Definitely a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, LP08 said: Yeah not as quick as the GFS with the Northern Vort. Some semblence of a southern vort so theres that. Never mind I got it mixed up with the disturbace to the west. Needed to animate the GFS to see that. Euro looks fine at 96hrs with that aspect. It's too far west with the plans disturbance though. We need that to drop southeast, not west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: No matter the outcome, Euro took a step toward the GFS @96 It's close enough for 96 hours. The premise is the same. GFS is notably faster with the trailing vort and more consolidated but for 4 day leads they are both onto the same general idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, Amped said: Never mind I got it mixed up with the disturbace to the west. Needed to animate the GFS to see that. Euro looks fine at 96hrs with that aspect. It's too far west with the plans disturbance though. We need that to drop southeast, not west. It was a good step though. It didn't squash the southern one so its a step in the right direction. Speed up that NS vort and we are in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Euro took a huge step. Flow is less suppressive in front. Stronger southern wave. Still misses the phase and its south of the GFS but it came like 75% of the way there this run from the last few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 @ 120 you can see the Euro clearly made a move towards the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 hour ago, yoda said: More info about 12z UKIE SLP: 96 -- 991mb SLP in N AL 102 -- 989mb SLP in extreme NW GA 108 -- 988mb SLP in C NC 114 -- 984mb SLP just west of Tidewater VA 120 -- 981mb SLP over Tidewater VA 126 -- 980mb SLP ESE of ACY by 50-100 miles or so That would make a good reading at a wedding. Instead of the typical Hallmark-card dreck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Euro is still less consolidated and more progressive but very close to more phasing. The primary difference between the euro/gfs is the speed of the trailing shortwave. Well within margin of error and not needing some wholesale shift to make it work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Euro is still less consolidated and more progressive but very close to more phasing. The primary difference between the euro/gfs is the speed of the trailing shortwave. Well within margin of error and not needing some wholesale shift to make it work. the gfs has an open trailing SW...the euro and ICON closed. Is that making a difference in speed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 No doubt in my mind that the EPS is going to up the odds of a good hit. The GFS has done very well with the northern stream this year with most of the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Euro took a huge step. Flow is less suppressive in front. Stronger southern wave. Still misses the phase and its south of the GFS but it came like 75% of the way there this run from the last few. Oh yeah it’s close. CMC and euro have sort of been in lock step it seems, but euro is even a bit closer to a GFS like solution here. Instead of a string out mess (basically two lows with each one generated by the shortwaves in each flow), euro mostly consolidates things into one low but isn’t quite there. But it’s a nice step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Euro has a ton of convection in the GOM at 84 which IMO causes some issues w transport of moisture into the system as it crosses the TN Valley. Once it is gone, it becomes healthier. I wonder what would happen if that convection was not there or less intense. Also, I wonder if the Euro is dragging its heals a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Response on the surface. It's getting there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: the gfs has an open trailing SW...the euro and ICON closed. Is that making a difference in speed? It's still pretty weak so I don't think closed versus open is the difference. Just a timing thing. Euro is so close to the GFS type of solution that I don't think we need to start worry much about anything unless we start to see the GFS string things out a little. This one has all the pieces necessary for a good event here. It's not a thread the needle/longshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 GFS is a bit higher with heights over Lake Huron and a bit lower with heights over Minnesota at 96hrs. This seems to make a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Paging @Deck Pic to start the thread. Only makes sense that the person who created the first Blizzard of 2016 discussion thread would make this one. Seems fitting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Response on the surface. It's getting there was just going to comment on that. Shows precip getting up to almost Fredericksburg this run compared to the border of NC/VA. Definitely a nice step with the stronger southern piece. Edit: You can also see the speed of the trailing vort on those maps and how close it really got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 IIRC the general anecdotal comment is that the Euro never makes massive wholesale changes in one run - so this tick is definitely a sign that it could be folding to the GFS camp. Plenty of time to go, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 If you toggle the vort panels you can see the euro sped up the trailing shortwave by about 150-200 miles from 0z. One more shift like that and fireworks go off. We're in good shape. I said this yesterday, I feel really good about this one I can't say I've felt this way about ANY previous event this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Just tell me it doesn't show a snow-hole out here. Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 This shows what I'm talking about pretty well. Check out the plains shortwave from the 0z run: Compare to the 12z run today: The departing low is further north as well so that can only help with the storm gaining latitude. I'm pretty happy with the run even without seeing pretty snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If you toggle the vort panels you can see the euro sped up the trailing shortwave by about 150-200 miles from 0z. One more shift like that and fireworks go off. We're in good shape. I said this yesterday, I feel really good about this one I can't say I've felt this way about ANY previous event this year. Even the GFS sped it up from the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Much better look at 500's. 50/50 is positioned a little better allowing some ridging in front turning the trough more towards neutral. Much closer to a big storm look then previous runs where the look was very progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, Amped said: Even the GFS sped it up from the last few runs. Yea, this one is trending well across all guidance. That trend probably isn't done yet. We can probably completely rule out an overhead or west track rain storm at this point. The important stuff isn't really happening until d4 still so the lead offers plenty of time for adjustments. 12z eps is an important run. If there is an uptick of phased/amplified solutions then it probably getting close to game on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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