Heisy Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 The 12z Ukie is about as perfect a model run youll ever see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Can we get precip for the UKMET? Going to have to wait... meteocentre only goes out to 72. I have the weathermodels site open and ready -- prob going to be another 20 mins or maybe more I think till it comes up on there and I will have the QPF field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 LOL. Ukie and GFS in lock step at this point. That track is absolute perfection for out this way. Wish it was the Friday 12Z run. But very nice agreement early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: 12z UKMET Sure looks like a sign the Euro will jump on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Heh, is today convergence day? 3 for 3 so far...one to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I'll share UKIE precip maps as soon as weathermodels gets them out.. little slow today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yea I saw that. This is March and we need a decent cold air source, the whole setup seems incredibly tenuous and having a low tucked that far in outside of January gives me serious pause about this event. A 989 off the coast with a 1050+ high in Quebec would give you pause, so nothing new here. You'd find something to nitpick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Heh, is today convergence day? 3 for 3 so far...one to go Well damn..I just saw the UKMet. I asked for just one model to support the GFS...now we got 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 strong little storm even before it gets to the coast. lots of qpf being depicted by the gfs and i'm assuming ukie now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: A 989 off the coast with a 1050+ high in Quebec would give you pause, so nothing new here. You'd find something to nitpick. I get his concern but there are different versions of "tucked". Sometimes a tucked low has ridging out in front and HP out in the Atlantic funneling warm air into the system. This particular setup has none of that. As long as the low stays south of us as it passes, odds of all or mostly snow are very high. It's a great setup for a snow event any time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: I get his concern but there are different versions of "tucked". Sometimes a tucked low has ridging out in front and HP our in the Atlantic funneling warm air into the system. This particular setup has none of that. As long as the low stays south of us as it passes, odds of all or mostly snow are very high. It's a great setup for a snow event any time of year. Agree with this...especially to the north and west of the fall line...but even south and east should do fine for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: I get his concern but there are different versions of "tucked". Sometimes a tucked low has ridging out in front and HP out in the Atlantic funneling warm air into the system. This particular setup has none of that. As long as the low stays south of us as it passes, odds of all or mostly snow are very high. It's a great setup for a snow event any time of year. also doesn't appear to have any traits of becoming an apps runner either with the high pressing down (hopefully lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, 87storms said: also doesn't appear to have any traits of becoming an apps runner either with the high pressing down (hopefully lol). Nope. Cutting west is going to be incredibly hard with this type of height pattern @ 72 hours. It's not even on the list of things to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 23 minutes ago, Fozz said: Definitely worth staying up late if that's how it plays out. And it looks to continue after that. I've gotta say, the timing the GFS shows is incredible. Starts cranking the storm during the late afternoon/night. Happens at 33/34 degrees during the overnight hours. Pretty sure 1"+/hr rates could overcome those kind of temps at night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 12 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Brand new 12z UKMET: GFS at same time: Well that's remarkable in and of itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: I've gotta say, the timing the GFS shows is incredible. Starts cranking the storm during the late afternoon/night. Happens at 33/34 degrees during the overnight hours. Pretty sure 1"+/hr rates could overcome those kind of temps at night No question...even during the day with this set up we would probably do ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, Cobalt said: I've gotta say, the timing the GFS shows is incredible. Starts cranking the storm during the late afternoon/night. Happens at 33/34 degrees during the overnight hours. Pretty sure 1"+/hr rates could overcome those kind of temps at night The snow last night in my yard stuck no problem. lol. mid 40's during the afternoon and temps never got below freezing...and snow stuck to everything except the pavement. Don't worry about things that don't need to be worried about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 FWIW. The JMA looks almost identical to the Ukie at 72 hours as well. Solid agreement with just about every model on the setup at that point. And from 72 hours on it is pretty easy to forecast what will happen with that setup as long as the vort is strong enough. Even if it misses the phase. If we have a strong front running vort we will get snow with that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 It's on like donkey kong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 selection sunday! omw to columbia to chase clouds, but hopefully euro delivers a nice trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: The snow last night in my yard stuck no problem. lol. mid 40's during the afternoon and temps never got below freezing...and snow stuck to everything except the pavement. Don't worry about things that don't need to be worried about. But the clocks go ahead on Sunday. We have to worry about that extra hour of daylight.* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 *Sadly, the new folks will never get that reference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: But the clocks go ahead on Sunday. We have to worry about that extra hour of daylight.* I already accounted for that in my proprietary BCM. We're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: But the clocks go ahead on Sunday. We have to worry about that extra hour of daylight.* It’s my greatest concern with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: But the clocks go ahead on Sunday. We have to worry about that extra hour of daylight.* Still plenty of time for the models to bring the storm in an hour earlier to make up for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 anybody have totals or a snow map from the ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: But the clocks go ahead on Sunday. We have to worry about that extra hour of daylight.* That extra hour has been proven to directly affect the angle of the cold so its a legit point. Don't make me break out the too many cars on the road argument too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I get his concern but there are different versions of "tucked". Sometimes a tucked low has ridging out in front and HP out in the Atlantic funneling warm air into the system. This particular setup has none of that. As long as the low stays south of us as it passes, odds of all or mostly snow are very high. It's a great setup for a snow event any time of year. THIS OMG THANK YOU... We do NOT want tucked if the low is in its baroclinic phase and deepening along the thermal boundary because it will be driving warm air in to the north of the track and pushing the thermal boundary west, especially in the mid levels. But once the storm goes barotropic and becomes vertically stacked...you want it tucked. At that point the warm air intrusion is mostly over. Tucked is also ok when the storm is east of you. You don't want it too close south of you. Finally...in March that process of bombing and becoming cut off and vertically stacked happens further south then during mid winter. So basically there is a HUGE difference between a tucked in low in January during the amplification baroclinic stage where its got ridging in front and is driving warm air inland...and a tucked in bombed out occluded fully phased vertically stacked monster in mid march. Not all lows at the same location give the same results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Busy at work and late to the party....but, I'd paid my cover charge...where's the bar? Question...any chance that the northern piece that comes in at the end tries to phase? Def dived further south this run into the lakes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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