Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Here's the euro meteo for DC from 0z. You can see the potential for a GFS like solution baked into the solutions. This was the best EPS run so far for this event as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Bob Chill, any concerns for temps with the storm so close to the coast? Maybe at the surface at the beginning. This isn't a setup that draws big altantic moisture maritime air. Having confluence above us really locks in the mid levels. We might lose some at the beginning but once it gets going we're all good. Even SE of town. Don't compare this to other recent storms where temps fooked it all up. It's a much different setup leading in than we've seen recently. Blocking/confluence greatly decreases chances of return flow or WAA screwing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 18 hours of snow, more or less. Makes my winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 9 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I'd say mecs for sure. I know but I'm trying to temper my expectations. If the Euro comes on board I might lose all control. And start spouting the H word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 the GGEM showing a much stronger southern branch was something new #merica Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That's a straight up flush hit. EXACTLY what we want to see. I find zero wrong with this run. Perfecto. I don't see a nicely positioned high to the north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Now we need the Euro to come on board and if so, lock it in and I'm sold. 10:1 I know but... it's pretty to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 You can see here that even with SLP over the delmarva, there's plenty of cold mid level air to wrap into the system. Being tucked means that mixing is surely possible with the greatest risk closer to the SLP center but it should be short lived. Once the low gets west of us the column will crash easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Here's the euro meteo for DC from 0z. You can see the potential for a GFS like solution baked into the solutions. This was the best EPS run so far for this event as well. Interested in seeing the GEFS. I wonder if there are going to be some monsters in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 17 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Beautiful run. GFS has been Rock Solid for a while now with this storm. I believe the Euros going to be nice to look at this afternoon also. I'll believe that when I see it...It's been stubborn as an ox lately, smh I just hope we get some sort of convergence (hopefully for the better) by the end of today...Can't take another 24 hours of them being at odds, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Look at that band of snow! I know it's 114 hours out, but that's impressive Definitely worth staying up late if that's how it plays out. And it looks to continue after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I don't see a nicely positioned high to the north? There's a weak high behind the departing low. We benefit from confluence from the departing low. Keeps surface flow northerly until the SLP approaches so another insitu CAD type of setup. There's a window of SE flow as it jumps the mountiains but the good stuff on the back side has all the cold it needs to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That's a straight up flush hit. EXACTLY what we want to see. I find zero wrong with this run. Perfecto. with the pattern as depicted, it actually has a chance. This would be great for many of us. Only 18 more model runs to go. when 500 closed at 96 I had a feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: There's a weak high behind the departing low. We benefit from confluence from the departing low. Keeps surface flow northerly until the SLP approaches so another insitu CAD type of setup. There's a window of SE flow as it jumps the mountiains but the good stuff on the back side has all the cold it needs to work with. Yea I saw that. This is March and we need a decent cold air source, the whole setup seems incredibly tenuous and having a low tucked that far in outside of January gives me serious pause about this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 23 minutes ago, stormtracker said: If it wasn't just the GFS showing this, I'd be going crazy right now. I obviously want to see consensus form... but the op euro isnt what it once was...its been a mess with specific storms a LOT lately. The EPS being generally supportive helps too. I am not saying I feel this is a lock or anything...but I feel better about it then I would have a couple years ago with the euro on the other side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Yea I saw that. This is March and we need a decent cold air source, the whole setup seems incredibly tenuous and having a low tucked that far in outside of January gives me serious pause about this event.This winter gives me serious pause for any event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 First sign the euro could go towards the GFS should be the ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 26 minutes ago, Ji said: yikes..thats more tucked in that i imagined Tucked is good...especially for you and me. But in March with the increased baroclinicity these storms tend to wind up tight... Don't want that low as far offshore as a typical mid winter system imo. We need the crazy dynamics to overcome mid march issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 27 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That's a straight up flush hit. EXACTLY what we want to see. I find zero wrong with this run. Perfecto. Yep. Classic crush job for the entire subforum. I would expect the Euro to make another adjustment at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, H2O said: First sign the euro could go towards the GFS should be the ukie 0z UKIE was definitely a move towards a GFS like solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 12z UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 UK looks like it would be a crush job. 986 mouth of the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 12z UKMET Full phased bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 12z UKMET at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, yoda said: 12z UKMET pics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Brand new 12z UKMET: GFS at same time: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 27 minutes ago, LP08 said: Well well well...CMC just misses the phase but took a huge step towards the GFS....#America! I am totally ok with the cmc having a close miss just to the south. It completely misses the phase...not by much...just runs the stj wave out ahead of the northern stream a bit too much...and even without any phasing its right there just south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Whoa. This looks like a 12-18" event. Looks like it would continue into early Monday if it plays out like that. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Can we get precip for the UKMET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: Can we get precip for the UKMET? Precip panels on this site do not go out past 72: http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNMPR&hh=120&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&hh2=120&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo I am unaware of another source (or if it is available for UKMET). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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