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March Mid/Long Range Disco 3


WxUSAF

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1 minute ago, snowmagnet said:

Let me see if I’m understanding this correctly.  The #1 analog to this one coming up is 2/6/10??? I’ll take that.  I know no storm is the same. If we could get anywhere close, it would be historic for March.  Not that it will happen...just being optimistic. 

wow!

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14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Yeah it is. That is basically a weenie list for Mid Atlantic snowstorms. I dont really like seeing the 87' Veterans Day storm on there as we got fringed horridly to the west. But that storm is still the best reverse bust in history for DC proper. 

Its a solid list. There are a few too many painful misses to my south on there for my liking though. But some epic HECS too. But I'd almost like to see some misses to the north to balance out the group of south misses. 

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There is no way around the fact that today is an important day for model runs.  We are inside 120 hours.  The current storm is progressing up and off the coast.  We need positive trends starting with 12z GFS.  I'm not worried about the NAM at range.  I'm sure there will be model wars but man it would be great to get some consensus for once.

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Important to note with that top analog...

The 300mb height and 500mb height levels are 0.684 and 0.722 respectively...not super high compared to some of the other analogs lower on the list. Looks like the higher scores come at the H85 level and also PMSL (pressure). 

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yup, all northern stream.  Let's see what the GFS does

i keep waiting for the GFS too fold...to take us out of our misery and end this winter but its been rock steady. Maybe 12z is that run that crushes us and puts us into spring mode

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11 minutes ago, Ji said:

i keep waiting for the GFS too fold...to take us out of our misery and end this winter but its been rock steady. Maybe 12z is that run that crushes us and puts us into spring mode

I think we're in pretty good shape. Atlantic looks good and the ridge in the west looks good. The only wildcard is strength of storm this point. The factors that go into getting a strong or weak storm are delicate though. All things considered we're lookin pretty good. I disagree about today being the day of do or die though. More like tomorrow or friday. We've seen sig changes at hr72-96 multiple times this year. Northern stream stuff likes to torture us like that. 

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Icon is close but the northern stream actually kicks out the storm instead of phasing and bringing it up coast but its better than whats it should be showing. Icon is like a newspaper in todays age...it seems to be 1-2 days behind

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Just now, Ji said:

Icon is close but the northern stream actually kicks out the storm instead of phasing and bringing it up coast but its better than whats it should be showing. Icon is like a newspaper in todays age...it seems to be 1-2 days behind

Why do we even discuss this model?  Who made that a thing?  It's awful.

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Why do we even discuss this model?  Who made that a thing?  It's awful.

someone decided to post it on tropical tidbits so its easy access. Otherwise, we would never hear about it. Like the Brazilian model. It has sniffed out some things

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I won't feel comfortable until the storm is literally on top of us. There's a lot of upset people this morning about today's storm, and I don't just mean in this forum. Lots of people having the rug pulled out from under them literally as the storm is hitting.

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Just now, osfan24 said:

I won't feel comfortable until the storm is literally on top of us. There's a lot of upset people this morning about today's storm, and I don't just mean in this forum. Lots of people having the rug pulled out from under them literally as the storm is hitting.

i havent been keeping up? Who else is getting screwed. Miller Bs are so fickle that if your not 100 miles from the edge, you will probably get screwed

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

i havent been keeping up? Who else is getting screwed. Miller Bs are so fickle that if your not 100 miles from the edge, you will probably get screwed

Anyone that was along the western side. The shift east that screwed me is screwing places running up east central PA that we're expecting a foot or more yesterday and might only get a few inches now.  

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

i havent been keeping up? Who else is getting screwed. Miller Bs are so fickle that if your not 100 miles from the edge, you will probably get screwed

Lots of places farther west in PA. I've also seen a bunch of reports of rain in parts of NJ and NY and even Philly. Some Philly suburbs are doing well but others are seeing some snow and then having a lull and watching it melt.

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1 minute ago, anotherman said:

There was a WSW for here for 4-8 with 10 on the hilltops. Currently we have a coating.

yikes. Sorry man. living on the edge is the worst place to be. No wiggle room.

 

in other news: GFS looks similar to 6z

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