Interstate Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Nam looks weird and probably terrible Yeah...looks all NS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, snowmagnet said: Let me see if I’m understanding this correctly. The #1 analog to this one coming up is 2/6/10??? I’ll take that. I know no storm is the same. If we could get anywhere close, it would be historic for March. Not that it will happen...just being optimistic. wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 How close was the 6z GFS to being a triple phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah it is. That is basically a weenie list for Mid Atlantic snowstorms. I dont really like seeing the 87' Veterans Day storm on there as we got fringed horridly to the west. But that storm is still the best reverse bust in history for DC proper. Its a solid list. There are a few too many painful misses to my south on there for my liking though. But some epic HECS too. But I'd almost like to see some misses to the north to balance out the group of south misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 There is no way around the fact that today is an important day for model runs. We are inside 120 hours. The current storm is progressing up and off the coast. We need positive trends starting with 12z GFS. I'm not worried about the NAM at range. I'm sure there will be model wars but man it would be great to get some consensus for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 24 minutes ago, Ji said: Nam looks weird and probably terrible Yup, all northern stream. Let's see what the GFS does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Important to note with that top analog... The 300mb height and 500mb height levels are 0.684 and 0.722 respectively...not super high compared to some of the other analogs lower on the list. Looks like the higher scores come at the H85 level and also PMSL (pressure). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yup, all northern stream. Let's see what the GFS does i keep waiting for the GFS too fold...to take us out of our misery and end this winter but its been rock steady. Maybe 12z is that run that crushes us and puts us into spring mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 11 minutes ago, Ji said: i keep waiting for the GFS too fold...to take us out of our misery and end this winter but its been rock steady. Maybe 12z is that run that crushes us and puts us into spring mode I think we're in pretty good shape. Atlantic looks good and the ridge in the west looks good. The only wildcard is strength of storm this point. The factors that go into getting a strong or weak storm are delicate though. All things considered we're lookin pretty good. I disagree about today being the day of do or die though. More like tomorrow or friday. We've seen sig changes at hr72-96 multiple times this year. Northern stream stuff likes to torture us like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Icon is close but the northern stream actually kicks out the storm instead of phasing and bringing it up coast but its better than whats it should be showing. Icon is like a newspaper in todays age...it seems to be 1-2 days behind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, Ji said: Icon is close but the northern stream actually kicks out the storm instead of phasing and bringing it up coast but its better than whats it should be showing. Icon is like a newspaper in todays age...it seems to be 1-2 days behind Why do we even discuss this model? Who made that a thing? It's awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Not many differences from 06z at 54 hours for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: Why do we even discuss this model? Who made that a thing? It's awful. someone decided to post it on tropical tidbits so its easy access. Otherwise, we would never hear about it. Like the Brazilian model. It has sniffed out some things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I won't feel comfortable until the storm is literally on top of us. There's a lot of upset people this morning about today's storm, and I don't just mean in this forum. Lots of people having the rug pulled out from under them literally as the storm is hitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, osfan24 said: I won't feel comfortable until the storm is literally on top of us. There's a lot of upset people this morning about today's storm, and I don't just mean in this forum. Lots of people having the rug pulled out from under them literally as the storm is hitting. i havent been keeping up? Who else is getting screwed. Miller Bs are so fickle that if your not 100 miles from the edge, you will probably get screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 There was a WSW for here for 4-8 with 10 on the hilltops. Currently we have a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: i havent been keeping up? Who else is getting screwed. Miller Bs are so fickle that if your not 100 miles from the edge, you will probably get screwed Anyone that was along the western side. The shift east that screwed me is screwing places running up east central PA that we're expecting a foot or more yesterday and might only get a few inches now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: i havent been keeping up? Who else is getting screwed. Miller Bs are so fickle that if your not 100 miles from the edge, you will probably get screwed Lots of places farther west in PA. I've also seen a bunch of reports of rain in parts of NJ and NY and even Philly. Some Philly suburbs are doing well but others are seeing some snow and then having a lull and watching it melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, anotherman said: There was a WSW for here for 4-8 with 10 on the hilltops. Currently we have a coating. yikes. Sorry man. living on the edge is the worst place to be. No wiggle room. in other news: GFS looks similar to 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 The northern stream might be a touch faster this run. It's not a ton though. This is looking at 75 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Not many differences from 06z at 54 hours for the GFS. Yeah doesn't look like it's caving so now we have to see what answer the euro gives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 GFS looks like its gonna phase earlier. #merica Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 81 hours 1002mb SLP in E OK 84 hours 1000mb SLP in W AR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Through 81, NS SW is quicker and has more interaction with the Southern one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 GFS has alot more southern branch energy than the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: GFS looks like its gonna phase earlier. #merica So far, so good. Nothing like the NAM....for that matter, nothing like any other model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 i thought 6z was a good run so its a good thing that this run isnt very different so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Yeah definitely more interaction at 87 hours. We'll see how it impacts the end result in a bit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: GFS has alot more southern branch energy than the other models It makes me nervous...or kinda proud. Either the GFS is leading the way and is going to be superior with this storm, or it is trolling us and will cave at like 36 hours before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 90 998mb SLP at the NE AR/W TN border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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