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March Mid/Long Range Disco 3


WxUSAF

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4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The Gfs didn't cave at all this morning. If anything it looks a little better at the surface than last night's run. Once again one of the majors is going to fail miserably. The Euro is a little bit on its own right now. But both solutions are certainly plausible.

the eps looks pretty good. Very close to the GEFS and GEPS...my mean went to 4 inches last night from 1 inch at 12z

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

this is not long range any more folks.....this is the biggest day in the fate of our storm in my opinion. Per the GFS, this storm starts in 84-96 hours

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png

Another day at the JI crossroads. Let’s hope we take more steps forwards than back. We all need this one.

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1 hour ago, Ji said:

this is not long range any more folks.....this is the biggest day in the fate of our storm in my opinion. Per the GFS, this storm starts in 84-96 hours

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png

,central Va might jackpot but I would rather sacrifice some modeled snow to be above the 540 line any day.  6z is money in my book.

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3 hours ago, Ji said:

986 off va capes? Where is the dark blue?

Thought the same thing....  06z gfs has redevelopment starting in upstate SC --> 995 well inland in NC --> 986 of VA capes.  No way, imo, that doesnt have decent snows up to Harrisburg.

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1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

Thought the same thing....  06z gfs has redevelopment starting in upstate SC --> 995 well inland in NC --> 986 of VA capes.  No way, imo, that doesnt have decent snows up to Harrisburg.

Agreed. We all know the models tend to under do the precip shield with big storms like this. It happens every time.

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12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Agreed. We all know the models tend to under do the precip shield with big storms like this. It happens every time.

Yep...classic precip presentation 5 days out for all the big ones (not saying this is a lock to be a big one)  Both you and I know that the 06z track is very close to our bench mark track out here to the west.

ETA:  The gfs has been slowly closing the separation between the two pieces of energy every run since 12z yesterday.  If that energy can phase cleaner, we are back to some of the bombs we saw on previous runs.  Hoping we can continue that trend today.

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13 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Yep...classic precip presentation 5 days out for all the big ones (not saying this is a lock to be a big one)  Both you and I know that the 06z track is very close to our bench mark track out here to the west.

ETA:  The gfs has been slowly closing the separation between the two pieces of energy every run since 12z yesterday.  If that energy can phase cleaner, we are back to some of the bombs we saw on previous runs.  Hoping we can continue that trend today.

Is this also the reason the GFS has juiced up the storm in the last couple of runs?

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Yep...classic precip presentation 5 days out for all the big ones (not saying this is a lock to be a big one)  Both you and I know that the 06z track is very close to our bench mark track out here to the west.
ETA:  The gfs has been slowly closing the separation between the two pieces of energy every run since 12z yesterday.  If that energy can phase cleaner, we are back to some of the bombs we saw on previous runs.  Hoping we can continue that trend today.
I urge caution hoping for a big bomb unless that phasing threads the needle for a perfectly timed scenario. Alot of the more amped up solutions on guidance were also warmer in general tho there were some biggies depicted that do just that (timed perfectly).
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2 hours ago, Ji said:

the eps looks pretty good. Very close to the GEFS and GEPS...my mean went to 4 inches last night from 1 inch at 12z

Heck yea. Just looked through the members. Very supportive of a mid Atlantic storm. Doesn't support the op at all.

 

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
16 minutes ago, poolz1 said:
Yep...classic precip presentation 5 days out for all the big ones (not saying this is a lock to be a big one)  Both you and I know that the 06z track is very close to our bench mark track out here to the west.
ETA:  The gfs has been slowly closing the separation between the two pieces of energy every run since 12z yesterday.  If that energy can phase cleaner, we are back to some of the bombs we saw on previous runs.  Hoping we can continue that trend today.

I urge caution hoping for a big bomb unless that phasing threads the needle for a perfectly timed scenario. Alot of the more amped up solutions on guidance were also warmer in general tho there were some biggies depicted that do just that (timed perfectly).

Do you not think the confluence is strong enough to still keep redevelopment south?  Seems that the colder/more confluence has been a trend as well...which was not on the models to this extent when we saw some of the bigger runs. 

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5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Uh that’s a pretty solid list of analogs.

 

Yeah it is. That is basically a weenie list for Mid Atlantic snowstorms. I dont really like seeing the 87' Veterans Day storm on there as we got fringed horridly to the west. But that storm is still the best reverse bust in history for DC proper. 

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