Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,589
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

March Mid/Long Range Disco 3


WxUSAF

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Gefs doesn't support the op at all. It supports a MA hit. For 120 hours leads that a big deal because it'S the opposite of the the typical group think. When the gefs almost unaminously agrees with a hit and the op is an outlier it adds credence to what we were talking about after the op came out. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gefs doesn't support the op at all. It supports a MA hit. For 120 hours leads that a big deal because it'S the opposite of the the typical group think. When the gefs almost unaminously agrees with a hit and the op is an outlier it adds credence to what we were talking about after the op came out. 

Hopefully the Euro was high the past two runs.  The GFS, if it was going to back down, would have at least started by now.   Even if the Euro just makes a move toward the north, I'd feel even better.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gefs doesn't support the op at all. It supports a MA hit. For 120 hours leads that a big deal because it'S the opposite of the the typical group think. When the gefs almost unaminously agrees with a hit and the op is an outlier it adds credence to what we were talking about after the op came out. 

Your very first sentence threw me off (sounded negative at first, lol) So when the op is an outlier in this case...it's a good thing, huh?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Hopefully the Euro was high the past two runs.  The GFS, if it was going to back down, would have at least started by now.   Even if the Euro just makes a move toward the north, I'd feel even better.

Check out the gefs meteo for DC. No doubt the best gefs d5-6 lead run all winter. Euro is going to have an ecouraging solution if I had to guess. We'll know in 20 mins. 

UNL7Fhl.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Check out the gefs meteo for DC. No doubt the best gefs d5-6 lead run all winter. Euro is going to have an ecouraging solution if I had to guess. We'll know in 20 mins. 

UNL7Fhl.jpg

That's the only reason I'm waiting up...your pbp and a feeling that the Euro will give us hope....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

MAN this is annoying...How did everything but the EURO take a step in the right direction???

120 hours is a long time in model land. Simple spread. Euro wasn't far off. Just didn't the phase so the low stayed weak and couldn't gain latitude. It was actually an improved run in the upper levels compared to 12z. Just didn't work out this time. Nothing to sweat over yet. In 24-48 hours it gets real. Can't have guidance across the board slip back to disjointed. That would be problematic. Remember, you will rarely get all 3 global models to look the same at 120 hours out. If that annoys you then every storm will annoy you. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

120 hours is a long time in model land. Simple spread. Euro wasn't far off. Just didn't the phase so the low stawed weak and couldn't gain latitude. It was actually an improved run in the upper levels compared to 12z. Just didn't work out this time. Nothing to sweat over yet. In 24-48 hours it gets real. Can't have guidance across the board slip back to disjointed. That would be problematic. Remember, you will rarely get all 3 global models to look the same at 120 hours out. 

Tis is true...Its just being so close and not knowing which way it's gonna go...eh, just impatience on my part, lol (glad it looked better in the upper levels, though)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, Ji said:

That last minute energy dive from Canada seems to have a negative impact but otherwise good run

IMO this is a really good look. I just wish the euro was on board.  

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...