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March Mid/Long Range Disco 3


WxUSAF

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Gefs doesn't support the op at all. It supports a MA hit. For 120 hours leads that a big deal because it'S the opposite of the the typical group think. When the gefs almost unaminously agrees with a hit and the op is an outlier it adds credence to what we were talking about after the op came out. 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gefs doesn't support the op at all. It supports a MA hit. For 120 hours leads that a big deal because it'S the opposite of the the typical group think. When the gefs almost unaminously agrees with a hit and the op is an outlier it adds credence to what we were talking about after the op came out. 

Hopefully the Euro was high the past two runs.  The GFS, if it was going to back down, would have at least started by now.   Even if the Euro just makes a move toward the north, I'd feel even better.

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12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gefs doesn't support the op at all. It supports a MA hit. For 120 hours leads that a big deal because it'S the opposite of the the typical group think. When the gefs almost unaminously agrees with a hit and the op is an outlier it adds credence to what we were talking about after the op came out. 

Your very first sentence threw me off (sounded negative at first, lol) So when the op is an outlier in this case...it's a good thing, huh?

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16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Hopefully the Euro was high the past two runs.  The GFS, if it was going to back down, would have at least started by now.   Even if the Euro just makes a move toward the north, I'd feel even better.

Check out the gefs meteo for DC. No doubt the best gefs d5-6 lead run all winter. Euro is going to have an ecouraging solution if I had to guess. We'll know in 20 mins. 

UNL7Fhl.jpg

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Check out the gefs meteo for DC. No doubt the best gefs d5-6 lead run all winter. Euro is going to have an ecouraging solution if I had to guess. We'll know in 20 mins. 

UNL7Fhl.jpg

That's the only reason I'm waiting up...your pbp and a feeling that the Euro will give us hope....

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13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

MAN this is annoying...How did everything but the EURO take a step in the right direction???

120 hours is a long time in model land. Simple spread. Euro wasn't far off. Just didn't the phase so the low stayed weak and couldn't gain latitude. It was actually an improved run in the upper levels compared to 12z. Just didn't work out this time. Nothing to sweat over yet. In 24-48 hours it gets real. Can't have guidance across the board slip back to disjointed. That would be problematic. Remember, you will rarely get all 3 global models to look the same at 120 hours out. If that annoys you then every storm will annoy you. 

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24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

120 hours is a long time in model land. Simple spread. Euro wasn't far off. Just didn't the phase so the low stawed weak and couldn't gain latitude. It was actually an improved run in the upper levels compared to 12z. Just didn't work out this time. Nothing to sweat over yet. In 24-48 hours it gets real. Can't have guidance across the board slip back to disjointed. That would be problematic. Remember, you will rarely get all 3 global models to look the same at 120 hours out. 

Tis is true...Its just being so close and not knowing which way it's gonna go...eh, just impatience on my part, lol (glad it looked better in the upper levels, though)

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25 minutes ago, Ji said:

That last minute energy dive from Canada seems to have a negative impact but otherwise good run

IMO this is a really good look. I just wish the euro was on board.  

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

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