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March Mid/Long Range Disco 3


WxUSAF

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Cmc is trippin. I'll quit this hobby if that's how it goes down. We get some snow so that's not why I'll quit. I'll quit becuase it doesn't work like that in real life. Lol

See that northern vort split and the piece drive NW?  Not sure I have seen that haha

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Cmc is trippin. I'll quit this hobby if that's how it goes down. We get some snow so that's not why I'll quit. I'll quit becuase it doesn't work like that in real life. Lol
Im actually glad to see cmc show this lol
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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Cmc is trippin. I'll quit this hobby if that's how it goes down. We get some snow so that's not why I'll quit. I'll quit becuase it doesn't work like that in real life. Lol

Cmc would be a fitting end to the winter lol

In all seriousness though gotta love the moisture bomb that the GFS shows. To me it looked like it had more room to come north with less confluence.Being south 5 days out historically works well for us with a strong LP. Let's hope some other models join in though. Cmc was a step in that direction. 

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One of the best tools on tropicaltidbits is the "Previous Run" button. I'm linking the forecast for 0Z on March 12th from tonight's 0Z GFS run. If you click the "Previous Run" button back run after run, you'll have to hit three days ago (Saturday AM 6Z run) before you see any Operational GFS lose the significant eastern low altogether. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018030700&fh=120

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6 minutes ago, Ji said:
10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
Cmc is trippin. I'll quit this hobby if that's how it goes down. We get some snow so that's not why I'll quit. I'll quit becuase it doesn't work like that in real life. Lol

Im actually glad to see cmc show this lol

Oh, I'm not complaining. It has a storm and so does the gfs and icon. Last night's euro didn't have a storm. 

If we we're at 72 hours I'd be legit concerned about a slider. Models barely know know how many pieces of upper level energy there will be and margin for error with placement is prob a few hundred miles.

To me, it looks like we have the Atlantic right. That's a big deal because it's mid March so ridging or any type of return flow with a high off the coast kills our temps instantly. The "downhill" look to the isobars in the atlantic leading in is what's locking in cold so we have to have that. All we need is a better phase/stronger low and it "should" punch into the confluence and get up here. I'm pretty optimistic honeslty. This one feels right. 

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

I think we miss just east... but 00z UKIE at 120 has a 997mb SLP south of ILM -- 144 its 984mb SLP up by the 40/70 benchmark

ETA:  Going to have to wait for the QPF panels on weather.us which will be a lil while

Great to hear. Time to get the Euro on board now.

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Back to the 00z UKIE for a moment:

108 -- 1002mb SLP in C AL

114 -- 999mb SLP west of the SC/GA line in E GA by about 50 miles

120 -- 995mb SLP just south of ILM

126 -- 988mb SLP just east of HSE

132 -- 982mb SLP east of NC/VA border by ~150 miles

138 -- 979mb SLP at ~38 degrees north and ~71 degrees west

144 -- 972mb SLP at 39 degrees north and 70 degrees west

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3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Back to the 00z UKIE for a moment:

108 -- 1002mb SLP in C AL

114 -- 999mb SLP west of the SC/GA line in E GA by about 50 miles

120 -- 995mb SLP just south of ILM

126 -- 988mb SLP just east of HSE

132 -- 982mb SLP east of NC/VA border by ~150 miles

138 -- 979mb SLP at ~38 degrees north and ~71 degrees west

144 -- 972mb SLP at 39 degrees north and 70 degrees west

Above are the approximate positions of SLP placement on the 00z UKIE.  The h5 charts and precip are not out as of yet

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