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March Mid/Long Range Disco 3


WxUSAF

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I agree with Bob. The Euro was actually a pretty big improvement from last nights 0z run. It is not a model that jumps wildly from run to run. I would think we start to see it improve over the next couple of runs. Or I could be totally wrong
Lol...it jumped extremely wild run to run from 12z yesterday to 00z last night
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22 minutes ago, Ji said:
25 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:
I agree with Bob. The Euro was actually a pretty big improvement from last nights 0z run. It is not a model that jumps wildly from run to run. I would think we start to see it improve over the next couple of runs. Or I could be totally wrong emoji4.png

Lol...it jumped extremely wild run to run from 12z yesterday to 00z last night

Yes. But it can only jump wildly when it is bad for us. Good changes take patience :)

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11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I agree with Bob. The Euro was actually a pretty big improvement from last nights 0z run. It is not a model that jumps wildly from run to run. I would think we start to see it improve over the next couple of runs. Or I could be totally wrong :)

Even though the SW approaches from the southwest, it's still a northern stream dominant storm. If anyone expects consistent run over run model suites at 5+ day leads with a northern stream short wave then they either haven't learned this game yet or they have amnesia if they've been at it a while. 

It isn't a consolidated single piece of energy as it makes the trek into the middle of the country.  All the pieces basically start coagulating in the middle of the conus. This keeps development pretty weak until it gets fairly close to us. Even though there's blocking/confluence in place, the potential storm is absolutely not a good long track type of deal. Because of this I completely expected things to diverge in the mid range and models to end up being at odds with each other. 

The most important mid range positive trend was a better mid level cold push. When I first saw the potential, my first reaction was how easy it could be for just plain rain. The last few days the cold push/confluence trended much better. That was a big relief and is no doubt the #1 key ingredient for getting snow in mid march. 

The bad side of the better confluence is it ups the odds of a sheared mess or a southern slider. However, rooting for less confluence is a better odds proposition than rooting for more cold now that we're getting close to 5 day leads. 

I think we can all agree at this point that a consolidated strong storm approaching from the TN valley is going to make a run at us and not slip south. The euro was messy and disjointed so the mess was easily shunted south. That was the only thing wrong with the euro. Just didn't get things organized. We have at least 48 hours before knowing if the energy has a high probability of consolidating early enough to make a run at us. My guess right now is we probably get some snow out of this deal with good potential for a nice hit. 

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14 minutes ago, Ji said:

I am in hecs or bust mode....im probably going to be dissapointed on Monday. Oh well..set the bar too high. I kept dreaming about Heather A

The good thing about this storm is if we don't get a big hit then it's pretty unlikely anyone north of us does. 

I'm more worried about a climo divider than a whiff. It can easily whiff of course but it could also destroy north and west and suck dc south and east. My yard ends up in the middle with those kinds of deals but it would feel like a participation award and not a medal. 

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This could be a monster or be nothing. At least "some" models still show the potential with a small shift/capture for something big in 5 days. We need to hope that Diggs can catch that pass from Keenum again when everyone thought it was already over.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk

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2 hours ago, Cobalt said:

Kuchera is pretty decent too, especially for Western folks

gfs_snow_Ku_acc_washdc_25.thumb.png.36a1064f7e1f25f07fb6c1d7c677222f.png

We saw this look five years ago in march.  It was a weird west -> east cutoff.  that was a very disappointing storm for most of us.  

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59 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The good thing about this storm is if we don't get a big hit then it's pretty unlikely anyone north of us does. 

I'm more worried about a climo divider than a whiff. It can easily whiff of course but it could also destroy north and west and suck dc south and east. My yard ends up in the middle with those kinds of deals but it would feel like a participation award and not a medal. 

This was a noaa write up on March 2013..

"This storm proved difficult to forecast along the East Coast for a few reasons. Along the Interstate 95 corridor, boundary layer temperatures proved to be the greatest factor in the amount of snow that fell. Model forecasts depicted 850mb and 925mb temperatures cold enough for snow in these areas, but they had difficulty resolving the warmer marine layer temperatures below 925mb from the Atlantic Ocean."

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Just now, Jandurin said:
14 minutes ago, PDIII said:
We saw this look five years ago in march.  It was a weird west -> east cutoff.  that was a very disappointing storm for most of us.  

It wasn't the same timeline though

No 2 storms are the same. And obviously this setup is a little different.. but it looks like temps were the issue.  I also remember that the precip rates were low for the i95 corridor. 

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14 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I don’t like seeing the 24H mean QPF take such a dramatic shift south at 18z.  DC is barely in the 0.4” contour.  

Yep. I saw it but didn't want to post it..lol The mean precip took a significant step back. The northern tier was in the .2 range. Definitely looks like more southern sliders. This far out it wouldn't bother me much but with the way the Euro looks it's concerning.  Hopefully that's not foreshadowing the GFS tonight.

 

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3 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

The storm is still there
You people worry too much

With the two year snow drought we're in...combined with this possibly being the last chance (and potential to be bigger if everything comes together)...kinda hard not worry...This winter we have failed in almost every conceivable way you can miss a good snow...So the second even the hint of something negative comes up.....there comes the worry wormhole, lol

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4 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

It'll snow again

How dare you offer such forward looking assurance rooted in reality! :lol: But really, the psychology here doesn't make sense, lol Yes, one day we will shovel again, even if it's not this year. We have head knowledge of that...yet we still sit here and obsess, lol

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34 minutes ago, PDIII said:

This was a noaa write up on March 2013..

"This storm proved difficult to forecast along the East Coast for a few reasons. Along the Interstate 95 corridor, boundary layer temperatures proved to be the greatest factor in the amount of snow that fell. Model forecasts depicted 850mb and 925mb temperatures cold enough for snow in these areas, but they had difficulty resolving the warmer marine layer temperatures below 925mb from the Atlantic Ocean."

March 13 was all about rates and not temps. It was supposed to be a heavy pasting. We all knew boundary temps were borderline but all models were hitting hard with 6hr qpf. That part was a bust. The intensification with the upper level low robbed the energy from the waa and then slp did a se jog as it exited the coast so the best lift and frontogenesis didn't make it far enough north. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

March 13 was all about rates and not temps. It was supposed to be a heavy pasting. We all knew boundary temps were borderline but all models were hitting hard with 6hr qpf. That part was a bust. The intensification with the upper level low robbed the energy from the waa and then slp did a se jog as it exited the coast so the best lift and frontogenesis didn't make it far enough north. 

Yup. Looked back in the OBS thread, and the radar certainly didn't correspond with what people were seeing on the ground. Also, it appears as if the ULL was farther south, and it ended up jackpotting Richmond? Interesting

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6 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Yup. Looked back in the OBS thread, and the radar certainly didn't correspond with what people were seeing on the ground. Also, it appears as if the ULL was farther south, and it ended up jackpotting Richmond? Interesting

I wish I could find the COD radar loop. I saved it somewhere but can't find it. It was soul crushing. I was outside with my wife and dog at 1am when the waa shield started in earnest. It was sticking too so I went to bed to wake up for the "big show" lol. When I woke up at 6am I knew something was going terribly wrong. 

The radar loop was like a switch getting turned off with the waa shield as the low intensified near RIC. Then as the low came up the coast the precip was pulsing through with no banding. Epic disaster. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

I wish I could find the COD radar loop. I saved it somewhere but can't find it. It was soul crushing. I was outside with my wife and dog at 1am when the waa shield started in earnest. It was sticking too so I went to bed to wake up for the "big show" lol. When I woke up at 6am I knew something was going terribly wrong. 

The radar loop was like a switch getting turned off with the waa shield as the low intensified near RIC. Then as the low came up the coast the precip was pulsing through with no banding. Epic disaster. 

Also, I asked this in the banter threat a while ago. Weren't 2/5-6/10 and 2/9-10/10 top analogs for this event? Just curios if this was in fact the case. Glad I was too young to truly remember the heartbreak of that storm

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