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March Mid/Long Range Disco 3


WxUSAF

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Not trying to wishcast this storm because an out of phase miss is obviously a distinct possibility. Having said that I've seen plenty of storms over the years have the timing adjusted to be completely out of phase and sheared out as the euro shows to then gradually adjust the timing on one of the streams so that they get back in phase.

So while things don't look good at the moment with the current lead time and a storm out in front of this one yet to clear the area, I wouldn't be surprised if things shift significantly for better or worse.

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I didn't think the Euro run was that bad.  We need a big change from 00z, but it's unlikely the Euro would make such a big change in one run at this range (it could happen, but not likely).  We need it to continue to incrementally adjust to a better setup, and this is not a bad first step.  At least it's in the right direction.

6NqwSnm.gif

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Jma misses the phase too. But it looks way closer then the euro. Euro is a shred factory look.  I don't mind how the ggem gfs and jma miss.  Get things synced up more and a more amplified result is supported.  The euro looks awful.  Nothing can stand a chance in that look. IMG_4517.thumb.PNG.ce98ec4a18e94a7b6401de04254f08dd.PNG

 

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Is the blocking really breaking down now though? Initially, we all loved this timeframe because it was a classic period where we would score in terms of the blocking breaking down. That doesn't seem to be the case now as it seems like it's going to hold on longer. I'm not giving up on this yet because we aren't even past the storm tonight/tomorrow, and until that clears the deck I'm really not all that interested in parsing details, but is that a concern at all?

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15 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Is the blocking really breaking down now though? Initially, we all loved this timeframe because it was a classic period where we would score in terms of the blocking breaking down. That doesn't seem to be the case now as it seems like it's going to hold on longer. I'm not giving up on this yet because we aren't even past the storm tonight/tomorrow, and until that clears the deck I'm really not all that interested in parsing details, but is that a concern at all?

Euro is simulating a much stronger Ridge not only over the western states but extending into the Plains. It is quite amplified and without adequate phasing of the two streams there is no way for this to develop and come north per the euro. Two sheared waves and a southern slider off the coast. Check out the 500 height anomaly. 

962EBF2F-5CD5-4761-A746-1FF192D7BBBB.png

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7 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

EPS looks improved on the snow mean side. More NW hits by eyeballing it, but not a huge improvement

Thats geat to hear. Looking at the mean h5 maps, they don't look great but not awful either. What's the mean snowfall for the area?

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12 UT EPS gives DC a 26/52% chance of >3" of snow during the next 5/10 days and a 2/24% chance of > 6".  

The odds from the 00 UT run were  4/22% for >3" and 0/12% for > 6". 

The corresponding odds for far-northern MD (north of DC) are 96/96% and 54/70%.

The odds from the 00UT run were                                        30/52% and 10/20%. 

Obviously, too high due to 10:1 assumption and the fact that this run is a bullish outlier for tomorrow compared to past EPS runs. 

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The storm in a few days feels like rain. +500dm -PNA is record breaking, and it's strong +EPO too. Wavelengths climatologically are similar now as January and February. (It's like 100-98-95-75-50, March being 95.) Models right now have a few perfect scenarios lined up. It's also pretty warm outside

This is the last 7 days when -NAO was strongest

+Feb500.png

EPO always busts warm

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1 hour ago, dallen7908 said:

12 UT EPS gives DC a 26/52% chance of >3" of snow during the next 5/10 days and a 2/24% chance of > 6".  

The odds from the 00 UT run were  4/22% for >3" and 0/12% for > 6". 

The corresponding odds for far-northern MD (north of DC) are 96/96% and 54/70%.

The odds from the 00UT run were                                        30/52% and 10/20%. 

Obviously, too high due to 10:1 assumption and the fact that this run is a bullish outlier for tomorrow compared to past EPS runs. 

So if I get this right... 12z EPS was bullish about our snow chances for our upcoming storm chance, yes?

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The eps individual members look better than I expected. About 15 or so have snow either focused for northern areas or southern areas or are flush hits.  There are a handful of huge hits.

There is also a group that hits the southern .va area hard. 

As bad as the op looked I am pleasantly surprised at how many members snow on us for the 11/12 time frame. 

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2 minutes ago, psurulz said:

I'v been away from the boards for like 36 hrs and now the bowling ball ull is a strung out mess according to the euro.  Did Ji cancel what's left of winter??

No, the models are having trouble sorting it out. The model runs will improve. This is definitely worth tracking.

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