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March Mid/Long Range Disco 3


WxUSAF

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44 minutes ago, Ji said:
54 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
Ggem races the stj wave so far ahead it's a completely different system. A weak stj wave sliding east under us then a weak clipper that was the support for the storm washing out a day behind it. Lol
This setup won't work without phasing. The flow is too suppressive for a stj wave to bully north on its own. If it misses the boat with the trough digging it will probably stay south. 

Again....why is the flow so progressive. What happened to nao creating traffic jams with systems

Progressive and suppressed aren't the same thing. The stj system ejects ahead of the trough digging this run. They don't sync up. Blocking doesn't guarantee that. But it is keeping the system under us.

This could evolve lots of ways. If the energy does split into two weak waves we lose. If one weaker wave races out as a front runner but leaves enough behind it could phase and bomb still. Or the NS speeds up and catches. The final result isn't known yet. 

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9 minutes ago, notvirga! said:

Yeah, 2009 was jackpotting central va in the lead up 

Not trying to compare these types of huge storms to the event we're going to see (or not), but GB 2016 had the jackpot in NoVA, and the Euro jackpotted Richmond for a run or 2, when in reality the jackpot was Dulles westward & even Northward to an extent (IIRC looking through the threat there were concerns from many such as Mappy since the Euro screwed them during the Tuesday & Wednesday runs).

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12z GEPS took a step back for March 12th, both in terms of the means and the individual members.  Still some good hits there, but not as many as 00z.  Some misses south of us that weren't there are 00z as well.  But if we do get hit, we do well.  There are only three members that give me more than 0.2" of qpf as snow, but each of those gives me over 1".

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

To my weenie eyes, Euro and GFS pretty similar through 96.  Euro does have a stronger 50/50 further south as the only difference.

120 big differences still.  GFS has a 999 Low in KY and Euro has the wave in TX.

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19 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I dont want to hear about location specific. Those of us to the west have been watching you guys get snow for two and a half years while we sit under partly sunny skies. Snow is an IMBY game.

You must have Baltimore city confused with the eastern shore. Seriously. If you think pity one inch snows are where it’s at, have at it, but we have been as screwed over as you all in terms of legit snow. 

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