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March Mid/Long Range Disco 3


WxUSAF

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

As of now, GFS is the only one with a storm.  No need to panic at this point, obviously, but it's irritating that we only have one global with us.  

Yeah, might be time to start tempering expectations with this one.  It was looking promising when we had the Euro/GFS both showing a decent storm yesterday.  

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1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

Yeah, might be time to start tempering expectations with this one.  It was looking promising when we had the Euro/GFS both showing a decent storm yesterday.  

Yeah, if the Euro holds from the 0z run, might be time to consider that solution.  If anything the GFS might be inching toward it.   For now, wait and see mode.  This is far from done. 

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

As of now, GFS is the only one with a storm.  No need to panic at this point, obviously, but it's irritating that we only have one global with us.  

My concern is it's trending towards the other models at h5. Atleast with the northern stream interaction. If the southern stream is weaker it would look like the rest of the models. 

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

As of now, GFS is the only one with a storm.  No need to panic at this point, obviously, but it's irritating that we only have one global with us.  

I agree tracker and the disjointed 500 seems to be a step in the wrong direction.  Plenty of time for improvements but the past several runs have shown some significant changes at 500 all over the map.  I don't think any of the models really have a handle on what might happen yet, probably another 24 hours of waiting before they start to come to some sort of decent agreement.

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8 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

My concern is it's trending towards the other models at h5. Atleast with the northern stream interaction. If the southern stream is weaker it would look like the rest of the models. 

Correct.  The move toward the other models are a little worrying.  But alas, this is life in the Mid Atlantic.  

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Gfs is trending towards euro. Ive never seen 1000 low in sw va with such paltry precip to the north

Soldier, calm yourself.    Let's see what the next 2 or 3 cycles do for us. 

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1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Trends this morning are not good for the MA. I don’t like the way things are evolving in the guidance. 500 looks disjointed, lacking a phase. Not much to bring this north with one SW racing out in front of the other. 

Yea it's troubling but I've seen the long range guidance struggle with this very thing in the past and sometimes end up with a more consolidated system come game time.   

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Ggem races the stj wave so far ahead it's a completely different system. A weak stj wave sliding east under us then a weak clipper that was the support for the storm washing out a day behind it. Lol

This setup won't work without phasing. The flow is too suppressive for a stj wave to bully north on its own. If it misses the boat with the trough digging it will probably stay south. 

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Ggem races the stj wave so far ahead it's a completely different system. A weak stj wave sliding east under us then a weak clipper that was the support for the storm washing out a day behind it. Lol
This setup won't work without phasing. The flow is too suppressive for a stj wave to bully north on its own. If it misses the boat with the trough digging it will probably stay south. 
Again....why is the flow so progressive. What happened to nao creating traffic jams with systems
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20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The season theme of "just out of sync" will drive even the most patient a little nutz

what's annoying is it appears we'd be cold enough to support snow.  something upstairs has been too progressive it seems, possibly making it more difficult to get the timing we need.  i'm interested in the euro.  gfs didn't look terrible, "just out of sync", but we're in a timeframe where we can afford a day of not ideal solutions.  would be nice for the euro to show a storm, though.

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56 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So, we're still talking about the ICON like it's a real model?   No shade, just asking.  

 

54 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Where did it even come from, anyway? Lol

It's a real model, but a relatively new one.  It was created in 2015 and runs at roughly the same resolution as the GFS, but on an icosahedral grid.  I haven't found much verification data on it, but from what I can tell it has been rapidly improving and is probably getting close to GGEM level.  It did well on our last event.  Perhaps because it's a relatively new model and still catching up to the other globals, it appears to be on a fairly rapid update cycle.  Here's an example of some of the updates that were done in less than a year over 2016 and 2017.

qnK1ICc.png

There are some good reasons to take it somewhat seriously.  I believe it's the only non-hydrostatic major global model, which adds some variety to the ensemble of globals.  From a more practical perspective, it runs four times a day, its output is free, and it calculates its own snow ratios.  So even if it's not as good as a something like the UKMET, for many of us it's more useful.

 

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44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea it's troubling but I've seen the long range guidance struggle with this very thing in the past and sometimes end up with a more consolidated system come game time.   

We have seen this happen numerous times this winter though. It is still early in the game, but writing might be on the wall with this unfortunately. 

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2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

We have seen this happen numerous times this winter though. It is still early in the game, but writing might be on the wall with this unfortunately. 

I'm concerned. But to play devils advocate the pattern is very different. We've had no blocking at all until now so im not sure seasonal trends can be assumed to continue. But I'm not dismissing your legit concerns.

gefs still looks good enough not to have a funeral yet 

IMG_4515.thumb.PNG.e7f5a5e11dacd5427b71c90612eac22a.PNG

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