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March Mid/Long Range Disco 3

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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EastCoast NPZ

EastCoast NPZ

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Subtropics said:

What are y'all doing. It's about to be April this weekend and y'all WANT snow? This is horrible. It's like the spring that will never come. Please END THIS MISERY and give us FREAKIN even just 60s for crying out loud. There isn't a place that is less enjoyable than March 1 to April 1 than DC, and now it looks like this is getting prolonged at least until mid month. 

I'm loosing my mind and y'all have a problem. Snow sucks not sure what the obsession is 'round here with snow and cold. Go outside with your families and enjoy a warm breeze for once. Dam! We better get a 6 week stretch of 95+ temps and 75+ dews to make up for this.

We do.  Every. Single. Year.  It's called SUMMER, and it usually lasts about 16 weeks.

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wxdude64

wxdude64

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Subtropics said:

What are y'all doing. It's about to be April this weekend and y'all WANT snow? This is horrible. It's like the spring that will never come. Please END THIS MISERY and give us FREAKIN even just 60s for crying out loud. There isn't a place that is less enjoyable than March 1 to April 1 than DC, and now it looks like this is getting prolonged at least until mid month. 

I'm loosing my mind and y'all have a problem. Snow sucks not sure what the obsession is 'round here with snow and cold. Go outside with your families and enjoy a warm breeze for once. Dam! We better get a 6 week stretch of 95+ temps and 75+ dews to make up for this.

Here, I know I'm not 'DC', but still Mid Atlantic....just a page back. And yep, what do you know, April is highly variable, shocking!

 

  On 3/27/2018 at 4:32 PM, losetoa6 said:

Up this way I remember.. 83 ( just a kid) ,96, 2007, 2014 and I know there were others . Also several examples in the (Ludlum) books covering 1600s - 1900.

Palm Sunday storm was Mar 30th I believe 

 

  8 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Just remembered 82,84 and 97..add them to the list 

You got my curiosity up, so I did some looking through the archives- it is an equal chance here for snow in April. Records from 1980-2017 for April, 37 years. 12 years had nada, zippo. 11 years had measurable snow and 14 years recorded a T. Latest I've had a measurable snow was April 22 of 1993 with 0.5 inch. Got to venture into May for last T, the 7&8th of 1989, granted just flurries in the air, but still impressive. Earliest recorded measurable was the 10-10-1979 event with 7 inches. Edit- this is also earliest snow period, including T's, just wanted to make sure.......

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Posted
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8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

EPS is much more inline with what the CMC is advertising around D10 with that energy cutting under the region and a sprawled out dome of fresh cold Canadian HP in place. Euro op is an outlier fwiw.

 

 

Still disappointed Ji didn't chime in in the Euro op run. Oh well, I did my best impression.

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Posted
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Just now, MountainGeek said:

Isn't it about time for Ji to start the storm thread for the D10 threat? Seemed to work pretty well last time...

Sure why not. Its only 10 days away- thats basically 10 days into April, lol. Not like anything can go "wrong" at this point. Its freaking Spring. But then again, this thread would be pretty boring.

 

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

There's even a cluster of southern mid atlantic hits in there . Day 9.5- 11 has plenty of Hecs hits fwiw.

Thats pretty good for our general region. Really long odds that places south are getting frozen precip heading into the second week in April, lol.

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MountainGeek

MountainGeek

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

2” is a HECS in April. 

Spring is the new Winter! 

Which raises some thorny questions, like when is the cutoff for snow season totals? Can we count April snow as an early start on the 2018-2019 season? I suppose technically June 30 would be the midpoint, so our April, May, and June snow will have to go into the current running totals. Poor Mappy.....

But on the bright side, our July 4 HECS will count towards an epic next season!

 

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29 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

I don’t leave when snow stops. I chase nice days. 

I leave for the most part. I go outside and enjoy the nice days. No need to chase em. They will be a dime a dozen soon enough. Part of whats appealing about winter/chasing winter storms is there is not much to do outside as far as projects and yard work. I hike and stuff, and enjoy the cold, but once we are well into Spring and Summer, posting here becomes low on my list of priorities. Lots of other things to take up my time.

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North Balti Zen

North Balti Zen

Posted
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20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I leave for the most part. I go outside and enjoy the nice days. No need to chase em. They will be a dime a dozen soon enough. Part of whats appealing about winter/chasing winter storms is there is not much to do outside as far as projects and yard work. I hike and stuff, and enjoy the cold, but once we are well into Spring and Summer, posting here becomes low on my list of priorities. Lots of other things to take up my time.

One can look at the models and chase nice days and also go out and enjoy same. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

EPS is much more inline with what the CMC is advertising around D10 with that energy cutting under the region and a sprawled out dome of fresh cold Canadian HP in place. Euro op is an outlier fwiw.

 

 

IMG_5288.thumb.PNG.3f1c7af1524e30c93663385b8b9c1d07.PNG

2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

There's even a cluster of southern mid atlantic hits in there . Day 9.5- 11 has plenty of Hecs hits fwiw.

There is a significant storm signal day 9-11. We are the bullseye but the reason the mean is only 3-3.5" here is the spread. Plenty miss but the members that hit are some BIG hits. And as you point out there are just as many south misses as north.  

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Sure why not. Its only 10 days away- thats basically 10 days into April, lol. Not like anything can go "wrong" at this point. Its freaking Spring. But then again, this thread would be pretty boring.

 

This is all bonus I'm just enjoying it. This has been one of the craziest blocking periods ever. It's been epic. I know only 2 of the storms snowed on us and only one was significant here but it's still been a crazy wild period and so much fun to track. And we did get a payoff finally so it wasn't wasted. 

Whats happening now I've never seen. I've seen flukey things time up with a quick cold shot in early April but I've never seen an arctic push and  pretty significant threat window this late before. It's also interesting because typically snow threads in April are only timing up weak waves right behind a transient cold shot or getting a back end changeover. Nothing big. A big system will have a warm air push with it and it's rare to get enough cold entrenched here to have that. This threat across guidance is accompanied by an extreme (and I don't use that lightly) cold shot that could make a bigger storm "possible". If it fails so what it's April. This is cool though. We are living in rare times here. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

IMG_5288.thumb.PNG.3f1c7af1524e30c93663385b8b9c1d07.PNG

There is a significant storm signal day 9-11. We are the bullseye but the reason the mean is only 3-3.5" here is the spread. Plenty miss but the members that hit are some BIG hits. And as you point out there are just as many south misses as north.  

This is all bonus I'm just enjoying it. This has been one of the craziest blocking periods ever. It's been epic. I know only 2 of the storms snowed on us and only one was significant here but it's still been a crazy wild period and so much fun to track. And we did get a payoff finally so it wasn't wasted. 

Whats happening now I've never seen. I've seen flukey things time up with a quick cold shot in early April but I've never seen an arctic push and  pretty significant threat window this late before. It's also interesting because typically snow threads in April are only timing up weak waves right behind a transient cold shot or getting a back end changeover. Nothing big. A big system will have a warm air push with it and it's rare to get enough cold entrenched here to have that. This threat across guidance is accompanied by an extreme (and I don't use that lightly) cold shot that could make a bigger storm "possible". If it fails so what it's April. This is cool though. We are living in rare times here. 

Totally agree. No real expectations, and this is very unusual, so who knows. The advertised h5 pattern is pretty crazy- just a damn shame we didn't have this set up 4-5 weeks ago.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
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12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yes, to each their own. "Chasing" nice days to me is boring af.

People complain too much lately. Not talking about you Zen, your comment was innocuous. But no matter what there is always someone... it's too hot cold warm wet dry snowy not snowy!!!  My god it's insane. 

We are in a pretty good spot. We get at least 75 sunny 60-85 degree days most years.  That's pretty nice. I never feel like we got that long without a day that's nice to be out. And I never feel we have a year where we had no outdoor days. Plus we get more big snowstorms then most other plus we get some decent severe. This is a pretty interesting and nice area for weather so these debs are just :facepalm:

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
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8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Totally agree. No real expectations, and this is very unusual, so who knows. The advertised h5 pattern is pretty crazy- just a damn shame we didn't have this set up 4-5 weeks ago.

Years when this kind of long term extreme nao blocking sets up during peak climo is when we get 1996 and 2010.   But at least we got a bit of a late save out of this one. 

 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

People complain too much lately. Not talking about you Zen, your comment was innocuous. But no matter what there is always someone... it's too hot cold warm wet dry snowy not snowy!!!  My god it's insane. 

We are in a pretty good spot. We get at least 75 sunny 60-85 degree days most years.  That's pretty nice. I never feel like we got that long without a day that's nice to be out. And I never feel we have a year where we had no outdoor days. Plus we get more big snowstorms then most other plus we get some decent severe. This is a pretty interesting and nice area for weather so these debs are just :facepalm:

Yeah we get a huge number of nice sunny days, plenty of rain, a decent amount of snow most winters, blizzards every few years, and  some severe- although I am fine with frequent garden variety thunderstorms. A touch of tropical once in a while, and the least favorite of mine- plenty of warm/hot humid days. Pretty nice variety of weather overall though. I would die of boredom if I lived in San Diego.

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