LP08 Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 On 3/30/2018 at 4:54 PM, stormtracker said: That there is snow verbatim. But we all know how that’s going to go. Expand Even better than what it shows?? Heh. I'm just happy I have a reason to keep checking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 On 3/30/2018 at 4:37 PM, LP08 said: Saturday morning... Expand Definitely some impressive temps for April. DC riding the line on the 850s as well as the surface. North and west looks pretty solid at that time. Verbatim this looks very sensitive to timing.....850s start out warm then push south throughout the day, but of course surface starts out colder and warms during daylight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 On 3/30/2018 at 4:25 PM, MountainGeek said: ICON supports GFS solution, CMC likes a little more precip as snow, maybe think of it as a blend of NAM and GFS. Expand Wait for the RGEM so we don't have to use the friggen NAM. Anyway best to stay conservative and up amounts later if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 My gut says Monday ends up north even for me. These baroclinic boundary waves almost always trend north the last 48 hours. That's just my gut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 Patiently awaiting LR guidance to start signaling the Great Tax Day Storm of 2018 :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 RGEM ensemble just coming into range for Monday. Not a lot of snow through 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 Euro again with a pretty good slug of precip at the right time on Monday morn. Hit and run but looks like a thump for NMD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 On 3/30/2018 at 6:10 PM, cae said: RGEM ensemble just coming into range for Monday. Not a lot of snow through 72 hours. Expand An unmitigated disaster.....spring cancel! I think we need a warmup/pattern change to reshuffle things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 30, 2018 Author Share Posted March 30, 2018 So euro is basically 1-3” for a leesburg-Rockville-BWI line and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 Euro 168 has a trailing shortwave in CO nearly perfectly timed. Might not be quite strong enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 What time do you think the watches and warnings go up for Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 So Euro has a 1001 low off the VA capes with some good 850s. Can't see **** else on the free maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 lol Richmond bullseye in April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 On 3/30/2018 at 7:02 PM, stormtracker said: So Euro has a 1001 low off the VA capes with some good 850s. Can't see **** else on the free maps. Expand Not missing anything. DC is on the extreme northern edge of the precip field. Might see a trace or so. Snowfall maps (10-1) have 6-10 inch totals through southern VA up through southern eastern shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 On 3/30/2018 at 7:02 PM, stormtracker said: So Euro has a 1001 low off the VA capes with some good 850s. Can't see **** else on the free maps. Expand fringed again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 On 3/30/2018 at 7:07 PM, showmethesnow said: Not missing anything. DC is on the extreme northern edge of the precip field. Might see a trace or so. Snowfall maps (10-1) have 6-10 inch totals through southern VA up through southern eastern shore. Expand Yeah, that'll happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 On 3/30/2018 at 6:27 PM, WxUSAF said: So euro is basically 1-3” for a leesburg-Rockville-BWI line and north. Expand that dosent cut in April. 20 inch storms or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 It's April and we're still dcsnowholing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 On 3/30/2018 at 7:11 PM, losetoa6 said: I bet Eps will be full of interesting hits Expand Yeah, not a bad look through that period of time on the op. Wouldn't take much in the way of adjustment on that run to get a good hit through the region. So it would come as no surprise, to be expected actually, if we see some of the ensembles have some nice hits mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 Congrats Mid Atl friends! NAO block ftmfw! :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 On 3/30/2018 at 7:22 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Congrats Mid Atl friends! NAO block ftmfw! :-DSeriously tho, does anyone think DC fails in 2nd week of April due to suppression? The curse was broken with the last snowfall....it will come North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 Anything can still happen at night in April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 Even if it does come north, what are we looking at here....3:1 ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 On 3/30/2018 at 7:32 PM, stormtracker said: Even if it does come north, what are we looking at here....3:1 ratios?I'd take 1:1We need that precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 Honestly just to get measurable would be a win. It’s ****ing April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 On 3/30/2018 at 7:32 PM, stormtracker said: Even if it does come north, what are we looking at here....3:1 ratios? Expand Actually it's a pretty cold look through our region (DC/Balt). 700's are plenty cold for snow growth. 850's on down are plenty fine. Excepting any sneaky mid-level warm layer the surface is the only place coming in above freezing and that by just a degree or two. Mind you these temps are even without the benefit of evaporational cooling. Get some precip into the air mass and temps would be even better. As is I don't think temps would be an issue whatsoever and 10-1 I think would be easily achievable on non-paved/dark surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 On 3/30/2018 at 7:49 PM, showmethesnow said: Actually it's a pretty cold look through our region (DC/Balt). 700's are plenty cold for snow growth. 850's on down are plenty fine. Excepting any sneaky mid-level warm layer the surface is the only place coming in above freezing and that by just a degree or two. Mind you these temps are even without the benefit of evaporational cooling. Get some precip into the air mass and temps would be even better. As is I don't think temps would be an issue whatsoever and 10-1 I think would be easily achievable on non-paved/dark surfaces. Expand Hmm..well if it stays like that something to watch I think. Hard to even get interested..it's the whole April thing that's killing it for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 On 3/30/2018 at 7:22 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Congrats Mid Atl friends! NAO block ftmfw! :-D Expand Even for April that would still be kind of a slap in the face, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 On 3/30/2018 at 7:09 PM, losetoa6 said: This is close to something big . Expand That's pretty darn close.The high is in a better position than it was for last weeks storm. Also cold over PA looks amazing for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 On 3/30/2018 at 7:55 PM, stormtracker said: Hmm..well if it stays like that something to watch I think. Hard to even get interested..it's the whole April thing that's killing it for me. Expand Sort of interested but like you I am pretty reserved about the possibilities. There is a good reason we don't do April snow well. Get this general look within 5 days and I might just start biting but until then I'll just observe. Besides I have already seen some changes to the overall pattern and expect more in the coming days. So lets see what shakes out a couple of days down the road first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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