LP08 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 6z ICON moved towards the gfs camp as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 The Gfs didn't cave at all this morning. If anything it looks a little better at the surface than last night's run. Once again one of the majors is going to fail miserably. The Euro is a little bit on its own right now. But both solutions are certainly plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 11:35 AM, clskinsfan said: The Gfs didn't cave at all this morning. If anything it looks a little better at the surface than last night's run. Once again one of the majors is going to fail miserably. The Euro is a little bit on its own right now. But both solutions are certainly plausible. Expand the eps looks pretty good. Very close to the GEFS and GEPS...my mean went to 4 inches last night from 1 inch at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 this is not long range any more folks.....this is the biggest day in the fate of our storm in my opinion. Per the GFS, this storm starts in 84-96 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 11:42 AM, Ji said: this is not long range any more folks.....this is the biggest day in the fate of our storm in my opinion. Per the GFS, this storm starts in 84-96 hours Expand Another day at the JI crossroads. Let’s hope we take more steps forwards than back. We all need this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 FWIW mean snowfall for the storm is consistent with 0z. 5” line through DC (the mean at 00z included 1.5” from today’s storm that is no longer there so the mean truly captures Sunday’s snowfall now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Why is everyone so concerned about the euro? Look how much it busted for today's "event". It has been pretty trash this year. Hug the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 12:18 PM, mdhokie said: Why is everyone so concerned about the euro? Look how much it busted for today's "event". It has been pretty trash this year. Hug the GFS! Expand This is a good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 12:18 PM, mdhokie said: Why is everyone so concerned about the euro? Look how much it busted for today's "event". It has been pretty trash this year. Hug the GFS! Expand Yeah, but the GFS did a good job of crashing and burning with this latest storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 12:31 PM, osfan24 said: This is a good point. Expand The Euro is the new Cras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 The Euro is almost in a league of its own at this point. It is the outlier, even its ensembles depict a solution closer to what the GFS and others are saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Not a bad GEPS runs last night. Snow mean after today's event isn't particularly high, but 8/21 members get me at least 1". Some big hits, and a number of misses to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 KU storm or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 11:42 AM, Ji said: this is not long range any more folks.....this is the biggest day in the fate of our storm in my opinion. Per the GFS, this storm starts in 84-96 hours Expand ,central Va might jackpot but I would rather sacrifice some modeled snow to be above the 540 line any day. 6z is money in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 10:08 AM, Ji said: 986 off va capes? Where is the dark blue? Expand Thought the same thing.... 06z gfs has redevelopment starting in upstate SC --> 995 well inland in NC --> 986 of VA capes. No way, imo, that doesnt have decent snows up to Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Almost time to start extrapolating the NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 2:05 PM, poolz1 said: Thought the same thing.... 06z gfs has redevelopment starting in upstate SC --> 995 well inland in NC --> 986 of VA capes. No way, imo, that doesnt have decent snows up to Harrisburg. Expand Agreed. We all know the models tend to under do the precip shield with big storms like this. It happens every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Hmm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 2:08 PM, clskinsfan said: Agreed. We all know the models tend to under do the precip shield with big storms like this. It happens every time. Expand Yep...classic precip presentation 5 days out for all the big ones (not saying this is a lock to be a big one) Both you and I know that the 06z track is very close to our bench mark track out here to the west. ETA: The gfs has been slowly closing the separation between the two pieces of energy every run since 12z yesterday. If that energy can phase cleaner, we are back to some of the bombs we saw on previous runs. Hoping we can continue that trend today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 12:35 PM, Scraff said: The Euro is the new Cras. Worse actually if that was even possible. I wonder if the CRAS had an upgrade? It actually hasnt been bad overall this winter. Could be the lack of amped up systems but generally has been in line with alot of other more reliable guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 2:13 PM, poolz1 said: Yep...classic precip presentation 5 days out for all the big ones (not saying this is a lock to be a big one) Both you and I know that the 06z track is very close to our bench mark track out here to the west. ETA: The gfs has been slowly closing the separation between the two pieces of energy every run since 12z yesterday. If that energy can phase cleaner, we are back to some of the bombs we saw on previous runs. Hoping we can continue that trend today. Expand Is this also the reason the GFS has juiced up the storm in the last couple of runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 2:13 PM, poolz1 said: Yep...classic precip presentation 5 days out for all the big ones (not saying this is a lock to be a big one) Both you and I know that the 06z track is very close to our bench mark track out here to the west. ETA: The gfs has been slowly closing the separation between the two pieces of energy every run since 12z yesterday. If that energy can phase cleaner, we are back to some of the bombs we saw on previous runs. Hoping we can continue that trend today.I urge caution hoping for a big bomb unless that phasing threads the needle for a perfectly timed scenario. Alot of the more amped up solutions on guidance were also warmer in general tho there were some biggies depicted that do just that (timed perfectly). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 11:40 AM, Ji said: the eps looks pretty good. Very close to the GEFS and GEPS...my mean went to 4 inches last night from 1 inch at 12z Expand Heck yea. Just looked through the members. Very supportive of a mid Atlantic storm. Doesn't support the op at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 2:27 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: On 3/7/2018 at 2:13 PM, poolz1 said: Yep...classic precip presentation 5 days out for all the big ones (not saying this is a lock to be a big one) Both you and I know that the 06z track is very close to our bench mark track out here to the west. ETA: The gfs has been slowly closing the separation between the two pieces of energy every run since 12z yesterday. If that energy can phase cleaner, we are back to some of the bombs we saw on previous runs. Hoping we can continue that trend today. Expand I urge caution hoping for a big bomb unless that phasing threads the needle for a perfectly timed scenario. Alot of the more amped up solutions on guidance were also warmer in general tho there were some biggies depicted that do just that (timed perfectly). Expand Do you not think the confluence is strong enough to still keep redevelopment south? Seems that the colder/more confluence has been a trend as well...which was not on the models to this extent when we saw some of the bigger runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 Uh that’s a pretty solid list of analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 2:35 PM, WxUSAF said: Uh that’s a pretty solid list of analogs. Expand Yeah it is. That is basically a weenie list for Mid Atlantic snowstorms. I dont really like seeing the 87' Veterans Day storm on there as we got fringed horridly to the west. But that storm is still the best reverse bust in history for DC proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Someone warm up the bus! I’m going 1,3,6,7,12. Memories of good old fashioned snow storm beat downs. I’d take anything remotely close on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Nam looks weird and probably terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 2:56 PM, Ji said: Nam looks weird and probably terrible Expand I'd put it in the Euro camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 2:12 PM, Ji said: Hmm lol Expand Let me see if I’m understanding this correctly. The #1 analog to this one coming up is 2/6/10??? I’ll take that. I know no storm is the same. If we could get anywhere close, it would be historic for March. Not that it will happen...just being optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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